Red the Bear

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  • Verizon Vs. Wal-Mart: Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth  [View article]
    Well it's as you say time is the key factor in the choosing. For younger investors with a longer time frame to look forward in, the growth factor/total return in fifteen or twenty years wins hands down;
    however if you are a retiree looking to invest for some extra income, the higher yield is the way to go.
    Like they have always said, time is the most valuable thing in the world, no amount of money can buy you a single second, and we give it to childern. Noow if we could just give them the knowledge to use it!
    Oct 17, 2012. 04:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pepsi Or Coke For The Long Term?  [View article]
    Golly...Gee.. $2k difference in 20 years, how about I take both for $95k?
    Winners are winners, just 'cause they're in the same sector isn't just cause to just pick one. As well stated above, PM & Mo, T & VZ, HD & LOW, why should I settle for just one?
    Sep 23, 2012. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genuine Parts Is Quite The Genuine Dividend Idea  [View article]
    His crystal ball is no better than yours. He is just saying that if things go as planned they could pay the dividend as shown. You want a sure bet, try death and taxes.
    Sep 21, 2012. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Modest Dividend Growth At Pitney Bowes  [View article]
    Because of the very generious dividend for the price this looks like a good possibility for a short term, 6 months-a year or so, small amount of money investment. I know that's not the norm for DGI but I have found these are a good way to pick up some extra money that normally you would leave in a CD or (OMG) money market until you have enough to buy another hundred shares of something bettera true buy and hold. I would not go overboard in the total amount of investment and I would watch it just in case something go sour but it sure beats 0.001% interest. (IMHO)
    Sep 21, 2012. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At American Capital Agency's Cash Flows As Of Q2 2012  [View article]
    As I have said time and time again, Reits are by their very nature
    volatile entities subject to many uncontrollable influences, and therefore MUST be watched with due diligence and caution.
    Your very fine analysis added a new perspective to my Reit education that I appreciate greatly in that I am long in certain Reits including AGNC for their ability to return high returns for a moderate investment, I use these returns to further and add to my positions in the rest of my rather conservative portfolio, and do not let my REITS exceed 15% of the portfolio worth.
    I have been in AGNC for a few years and
    added to my position at various times as my portfolio has grown so that at this moment my average share price is at 27.97. I have received 20+k in dividends and a Capital Gain of 15+k. It has been good to me BUT I am not married to it. As I have said...."Nitro in a blown glass bottle".
    Sep 11, 2012. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is No Dividend Bubble  [View article]
    Yep, there's a lot to be said for smoke and mirrors, 'till somebody lifts the curtain.
    Too many talking heads and snake oil salesmen are amongst the thundering horde. Keep your power dry and think with your head and stay the hell out of the way of the milling herd.
    Aug 27, 2012. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will You Buy The Pricey Philip Morris?  [View article]

    Debt is written red ink for a reason.

    Aug 26, 2012. 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will You Buy The Pricey Philip Morris?  [View article]
    PM has been run up far too high. Run the Graham number and the ncavps. No thanks I'll wait on this.
    Aug 23, 2012. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Profitable Large Cap Dividend Stocks Gaining Analyst Favor  [View article]
    The market is skittish and herd reacting to the hoopla the news media is making of the resent restrictions being placed on cigarettes in some countries. Cigarettes are not going away, people all over the world will continue to smoke, and drink, plus Altria is into a lot more than cigarettes and wine. Read up on it, study the numbers, decide for yourself. IMHO, Sit tight if you own some, buy the dip if you can. It pays and pays.
    Aug 23, 2012. 06:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: Profitability Analysis  [View article]
    Hello again Tortoise,
    So very glad to hear from you again. Isn't it nice to hear from a 'pro' that you have done as good as they could do. Gives you a warm fuzzy feeling of justification even if you just lucked into it, though from what little I know of you I don't believe it was all pure luck. You seem more methodical than that.
    You betcha, I would love to pick your brain for any views and insights you have in this game and get your thoughts on my methods of trying to pick my next moves; however I don't believe that this present method of communication, in this forum is the proper place for it, though I could be wrong. I sure that at least part of this group would be tickled pink to get into a open discussion of how's and why of picking winners and leaving the rest for the traders, particularly those of us, retirees, who are of a limited income and time frame...we do have very different limitations that a kid 40ish can't realize or properly relate to.
    I am still new at this site and not the most computer savvy guy in the room so I would probably need rather specific guidance as to a proper site, if there is one.
    Warning! I do not and will not mess with Facebook and their ilk. I have heard too more ill of their security and do not trust them. And an open chat room is really out of the question, I really don't care to have to have a discussion intermixed with the lovelorn, Biblethumpers, and political know nothings who believe any conversation is a fair opening for their views. Sorry but that's me and the way I feel.
    I have thought about a direct contact with you but did not have a picture to put on the site to log in with, though I am working on that. As loquacious as I appear to be I am very skittish of putting too much information on public view as a protection to my wife and family. As my wife says " to my friends my life is an open book, to the rest I would rather be a shadow".
    Still sitting at the feet of the elders with open ears, Bear.
    Aug 23, 2012. 12:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: Profitability Analysis  [View article]
    Glad to hear from you again. Thank you for your evaluation of my rant in defense of Hobbs. I was only trying to justify his buy well and hold position I felt that this particular group seem as looking down on and for his caution against taking a flyer on high return though higher risk investments. I really believe in " A man's got to know his limitations" and he has apparently found his. I will say that I do not entirely follow his position for I DO have Reits in my folder, which I watch extremely closely. I use them for their high returns to give me funds to spend and reinvest , my conservative "buy and hold" group is not at a level of returns to sustain my present cost of living (my wife's health, cancer and other problems, is rather expense) and I cannot afford to go into a diminishing base at this time. I DO consider Reits a dangerous play and I am working hard every day to find and purchase BAH (buy and hold) funds in order to reduce my involvement in Reits. I have made more than a few errors in judgment over the last few years which I hope have given me improving skills in evaluation of stocks,
    but only time will tell.
    As to your other question, where would I be if.....
    I really have no idea. I believe in living in the present and plan for what you see as the future, and in 2008 I made a decision based on what I knew then and what I saw happening. The company plan was made up of many ETF's , none of which were doing anything but going negative. When a group of us went to HR to ask that some changes to different funds be made we were told that it could not be done, though after I and several others, pulled our money out changes were made. I do know that some of the funds we were in crashed and burned, a couple disappeared. I realize that was in the market low and that about a year later the market peaked again but I do not have any idea of where I would be if.... that bridge burned years ago and there have been too many forks in the road since.
    I do know that I have a bad taste in my mouth for ETFs and from watching their returns over the last few years believe that most of them are not any better than me for gaining returns and are more involved in churning and promoting than making me money. I will admit to holding one ETF which I lucked into in 2008 which though not a big gainer has held rock solid year in and year out. I have a fair portion of my portfolio in it which I use as an anchor and emergency fund. It has only been touched twice for visits to Mayo clinic.
    As to where I would be if...the past is history which I can not change but only hope to learn from it. In the mean time I will sit at the feet of the masters and try to learn from them (call me grasshopper)

    Aug 21, 2012. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: Profitability Analysis  [View article]
    Alas, if only I did. I am 71 now, and retired, and am only working at increasing what little I have and paying the monthly costs of keeping what we have. I got into this in 2008 after watching nearly half of what was in my 401k disappear in the "recession". I, like many of my fellow employees was in a company offered plan and had paid little attention to what was happening even if I had, figured out later that there would have been little I could do about it. I woke up to see 40 years of savings, close to 450k, turn into 280k and was circling the drain.
    A friend of mine who was in a investing club suggested I pull what I had and open my own self directed 401, join the club and start learning about stocks, bonds, and investing. As he said, the best person to watch my money was me. The club had a limit of investing, a $100 a month, so no one could be hurt but because it was real money, everyone paid attention and had their say. The club also directed me to a licensed investment councilor who would "hold my hand" and keep me out of the ditches at the club price, $0.00! Anne, held my hand, gave me sites to go to on the internet to study and learn from, explained terms and taught me the language, showed me where and what to look at and for and gently tried to guide me around the potholes of my misguided logic, but never told me what to do. The best thing she taught me was caution and move slowly. She let me make my own choices, mistakes and good moves, but always in little bites. Now the bites are getting bigger and about once a month we sit down for a couple of hours and review and discuss, the investments, the market, and what we might do next. My 280k has grown to over 350k while paying me $1600 a month, the government withdrawal requirement, and giving me some reinvestment funds to work with to keep me interested. I still buy in 100
    share purchases, adding to stocks I already own and sometimes something new that I think looks promising, some pay off and some just sit there, and a few bite me back.
    I am and will be a devote believer in dividends with grown investing with a long range time element. I know that I have a great deal to learn about investing and am therefore a reader of "Seeking Alpha" and the articles written by contributors and other fellow followers. I sit at the feet of the masters and learn.
    Aug 20, 2012. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: Profitability Analysis  [View article]
    Mr. Hobbs, while I do not have the long term experience of Tortoise #1, I believe I can add a modest pair of examples to the discussion for long term, though no where as long as Tortoise, dividend and profits.
    I have two different stocks of 100 shares each which I believe fully demonstrate the power of long term investment strategies The first one bought in Feb. 2008 at 43.6 is now at 82.8 while paying over 1200 in dividends.
    The second, also bought in Feb of 2008 at 61.8 has split 2/1 and is now back up to 56.9 while still paying over 1900 in dividends. Now to many people that might be small potatoes and not a particularly spectacular gain but by transpositioning the time frame of Tortoise I believe that these humble examples can be extended to verify the power of growth and dividend returns.
    FYI the ROI of my current total portfolio is 19.2% from 2008, but I am still sitting at the feet of the masters learning all I can.
    Aug 18, 2012. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southern Company: Profitability Analysis  [View article]
    Tortoise #1
    Thank you for the reply and your thoughts of the market action. I agree with your view that Program Driven Computer Trading is a very probable factor in the market movement of this stock, though to me it only verifies my position that computers, computer programs and the people who write them are not infallible.
    As to the Hedge Funds, and their companions the Super High Speed Computers, I see them as having way too much influence on the market. Too much information is being supplied to a limited few and the MAY BE being used to influence and manipulate the market.
    Please do not take this for my being against the use of computers in the market, I definitely am not. The modern market could not and would not exist without them. The computer is a tool, a very valuable and useful tool, but the improper use of any tool, can and usually will, lead to improper function of the system it is being used on. I find this also applies to operator(s) of the tool.
    In my personal opinion a Hedge Fund action is like betting against yourself; if you don't have faith in you own ability's and judgment, why are you there? Take a position, act on it, and take the responsibility for the results. If you win, smile on your way, if you end up with lemons, make lemonade and sell it.
    Aug 11, 2012. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fears that the U.S. drought will drive up food prices next year are mostly unfounded, WSJ's Josh Mitchell writes, calculating the average consumer will spend only an extra $2.73/month. Food accounts for only ~14% of consumers’ daily living expenses, and given that prices for other items are falling or subdued, overall inflation likely will remain muted. (also[View news story]
    Not sure how Mr. Mitchell can support his calculations but I do believe he lives somewhere other than anywhere around me. I acknowledge that the US pays some of the lowest prices for food in the world BUT I must somewhat agree with Mr. Winter that at the lower income levels of household income the percentage of cost for food increases disproportionately to the decrease in income.
    Also, as Mr. Winter pointed out the recent increase in fuel prices has a direct and disproportionate effect on the price food since more than 3/4 of the food purchased is produced many miles from the ultimate consumer, and the production cost, the fuel use by the farmer, raises the wholesale price which is then multiplied many times by the time it reaches the buyer.
    Another factor that the bean counters have not taken into account is the fact that is that many areas that have been effected by the drought have placed water use restrictions in place severally limiting the use of irrigation in the production of crops. These restrictions will not be not be eased in the near future because of the severely lowered water tables in the deep water aquifers in the drought areas, and the ban on using the polluted water from the streams and rivers for the production of food crops. These food crops are not just the food for people but also those used for livestock, the chickens, pigs, cows etc that we eat.
    This has forced many farmers to sell of herds of livestock creating a temporary glut on the market bringing cheap prices now but reduced availability in the future with increased prices. Because of the market glut, the prices for these animals is down so the farmer is not recouping his costs and will not have the monies next year to start these herds next year. And even if he manage to get the money to restart, the time factors involved in rebuilding is not an immediate resolve. These factors and the reality fact that a great many of the production farms in this country are operated by corporations that are looking at bottom line profit return, i.e., costs are going up!
    If anyone out there thinks, well, we will just import more from other countries, remember the USA is the bread basket of half the world! Think of all the wheat, corn, rice, etc. we export. The world used to paying more for food and they will continue to, and we will too.
    My advice to the readers of this is similar to that of maven pharm above, learn to grow a simple garden and eat vegetables and simple protean diet. You will be surprised what you can grown in just a few square feet. And don't come at me with "Oh I live in the city"! Window boxes, roof top gardens, and empty lots kept most of Europe alive at the end and after WWII.
    I AM NOT calling for the end of the world, or of the USA. Just telling you that this is a situation that is not going away tomorrow. We are not going into a starvation situation or anything like it but food is going up and I have stated why above and provided you information to get through it with a minimum of expense and inconvenience.
    Just been there, done that, lived through it, and now I have told you.
    Aug 9, 2012. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment