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Red the Bear

Red the Bear
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  • Southern Company: Profitability Analysis [View article]
    To me, your analysis as well as the above comments by other owners of SO fully demonstrate that SO is a NUE, a PG or a JNJ, a hold and forget stock. My question is why has it been dropping in price, not that I'm complaining cause I am about to increase my position. I do not understand this market mood.
    Aug 9, 2012. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Price Of American Capital Agency [View article]
    I, too, agree with kingdad, particularly since the Fed announcement that they weren't interested or capable of changing Fed interest rates or were they proposing any magical fixes.
    I, too, see the EU money coming to the US for investment and security.
    As to Seniors and retirees I can only say, don't get over your heads. Reits are money makers but ARE NOT the rock solid aristocrats you maybe use too. Investigate and understand what you are getting into; get advice from people who understand the comings and goings of these sometimes very volitional instruments. Proceed with caution, get your feet wet before you jump in deep. Reits swings are high and wide, and can be a scary ride until you get used to it.
    A smaller mouth, only 75k in this sector.
    Aug 3, 2012. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Price Of American Capital Agency [View article]
    I agree, this is a excellent analysis of several scenarios. I have been long in AGNC since 2010 when I first analyzed them and believe that they had a good business plan and where showing proper restraint after the housing collapse.
    First off, I must qualify that statement by saying that I consider ALL 'reits' very dangerous and must be considered a 'Watch Daily and Handle With Care' item.
    But it has been very good to me and made me a nice bit of money. Yes, I am a dividend seeker, please not a "chaser", due diligence always must be used. I am in favor of what AGNC is doing with their present plan of addition issuance, let it fill in, pay the dividend and issue again. If you will notice they are not having to issue to pay their dividend, they have that money in hand which they have been doing since I have been in them. They are letting the market buyers push them up. To me this is a pure action of let them make us grow.
    Looking also at the other factors in this Growth spurt:
    One, the market is a mess, a bunch of chickens running around with their heads cut off. Europe is an economic nightmare that no one can seem to get under control,
    Two, the USA is in a dither over which party is or is not running the country and which no nothing do nothing will take over.
    Three, the housing market, which the Fed is trying to figure out how to jump start, is not going to raise interest rates until at least after the first of the year, giving a good solid base for AGNC to continue business as usual for at least another couple of quarters.
    Fourth, The people,and they are out there, who have watched and planed ahead are taking advantage of the low interest rates and are buying now, are good solid risks.
    I, moho, think AGNC, is making good solid move to grow their business. I am OK if they believe they need to make a 10 or 15% dividend reduction, the additional stock value will cancel out the drop. I will grin all the way to the bank!
    I qualify the above statement with 'always watch and act with due diligence'.
    Jul 31, 2012. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Advice: Do Nothing! [View article]
    This has been one of the better post on 'Alpha" that I have read. It has been very entertaining and informative to read the different yet similar philosophies of dividend investing.

    To tas02 (post 7/17 09:57) I like your logic! But I agree, buy companies that sell the products that the buying market buys. These may or may not be the ones advertising would want you to believe are, but who's sales numbers show they are and profit numbers show they're making money doing it.

    To jeanwight(post 7/17/11:19) I like your thinking but you have gone beyond the extent that most, I believe, of us are in a position to go. I agree that the best person to watch my money is me, anyone else will by nature place his/her own interest first. This is why I dislike funds. Fund managers make their money on "churn of funds" not making money for me. I know this will bring rain from some but is true from my experience with them, 'nuff said.

    As to JNJ in the "bad" list. No way, it is a turtle 'slow but steady' but is this a race?

    As to the doomsday watchers, My advice is you can't eat gold. Liqueur, beer and wine have always been trading "monies" Food and water will help get you through it, and guns will help keep it all from the 'bad guys'. Medicine to batch up the 'discussions' and kill the 'bugs'.

    That was off the subject, I apologize to all, but I hate doomsayers of any kin, the market, war or natural disaster.

    We live in the now, it is what and all we have. You must do with what you have now regardless of what has happened in the past, whether you are 20 or 50 or 70. You look at the past and present, analyze what you believe you see and know, make a plan and act on it. If it doesn't work out like you thought, you use the experience to help you plan better and go on. This has been my philosophy in life, through illness, war, divorce, and falling markets, out of work, broke or flush. In real simple terms, let's make lemonade and sell it.

    The soapbox is all yours.

    Jul 17, 2012. 05:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Investment Advice: Do Nothing! [View article]
    I, too, have gone down that road. And as you, I too, have learned to go back and every year or so to see where I have been and try to remember what I was thinking at the time of trades. Of course hindsight is 20/20 and my foresight has many blind spots. But I fully agree with your general premise, have a good plan, do plenty of research, and if it still looks good, stick to the plan and ride the bumps. Dividend investing is all about research and time.
    As Pogo once said,"we have meet the enemy and he is us"
    Jul 16, 2012. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Risk Retirement Portfolio With Dividend Yield Of 13% [View article]
    REITS are Nitro in a blown glass bottle, highly dangerous but very useful if used with care. No more than 10%-12% of a total portfolio, and watched daily if not more.
    As to Paul Leibowitz, 20 year olds, or 40 year olds, value their money just as much as retirees, they just don't have as much. Remember time is money, and money is made over time and a big loss when you're young is a terrible set back. A small risk for a very nice payoff is OK, a big risk for a giant payoff is not the way dividend player roll.
    As my dad taught me "I would rather make a hundred pennies than a dollar, cause there will be days you won't make the dollar but might make 50 pennies."
    Jul 15, 2012. 12:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Risk Retirement Portfolio With Dividend Yield Of 13% [View article]
    I must agree with the several of you who pointed out that reites must only be a portion of a well diversified portfolio. Reits are by nature volatile and quick moving and should be watched at all times. They are definitely not buy and forget stocks or even funds. However they can be money makers! My portfolio is set up so that I only allow the reits to be about 10% of the total value of the entire portfolio. I use the income off the reits to add shares over the entire spread which in time has also allowed the total value of the reits to also increase. I bleed off funds the reit dividends into money market funds that I use to buy other stocks of a more stable nature (usually at a somewhat lower dividend rate than the reits). But its nice to have extra available cash for dips in the market, a little over 35k over the last 4 years. This has allowed me to grow my entire portfolio about 17% over the last 4 years which I (MHO) think is pretty good considering the roller coaster market we have been facing.
    Jul 12, 2012. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Pershing Square reduced its positions in Kraft (KFT +0.1%) and Family Dollar (FDO +0.9%), according to a SEC filing. The hedge fund trimmed its position in Kraft to 15.5M shares from 21.2M at the end of the last quarter, while FDO was slashed to 2.6M shares from 8.4M shares.  [View news story]
    I see this only as a belt tightening and pants adjustment to loosen up some cash for a possible break out in something. I'll stay with my KFT and FDO and ride the summer fall back. I just wish I had a M shares of either.
    May 17, 2012. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.M. Smucker (SJM) announces a 6% decrease in the list price of packaged coffee products sold in the U.S. in response to sustained declines in green coffee costs. While Kraft (KFT) may match its rival price cut, other coffee sellers such as SBUX, DNKN, PEET, and GMCR may ride the broad trend of falling coffee prices to higher margins. [View news story]
    I agree with you Moose, the American consumer has become very aware of their available, or lack of, food money and price has become the deciding factor instead of brand loyalty or taste factors. Anyone who doubts that only has to look a gas prices and gas station sales numbers. Now, John Q, won't buy crap but once but a reasonable item that satisfies the need at a lower price will keep him or her returning for now.
    May 17, 2012. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraft's (KFT) Oscar Meyer - once known for spelling out Bologna prominently in TV spots - now says it will be the first brand to offer a line of meats that doesn't contain any artificial preservatives, flavors or colors. The company says it will also reduce sodium by 20% across its entire Oscar Meyer portfolio by the end of the year.  [View news story]
    Sounds like a good response to the changing consumer market. The American chase for healthier food is moving strongly away for foods that the list of ingredients is more than half full of unpronounceable items. The turnover rate for purchased food items in most households is down to less than two weeks or is frozen which practicality eliminates the need for extensively preserved food, and almost every one form the Surgeon General to the family doctor is trying to get your salt and food coloring intake down. Label reading has become fashionable by buyers and Oscar Meyer is responding. I like the idea, I hope it fly's.
    May 17, 2012. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraft (KFT) plans to give its iconic 100-year-old Oreos brand a dose of innovation in global markets in order to adopt to local tastes. Green tea, banana, and mango are just a few of the varieties of Oreos in the offing after emerging markets drove sales over the last few years and caught the attention of execs eager to grow the $2B brand. [View news story]
    Sounds like the MadMen of Coke have been hired by Kraft. It might work in other parts of the world but I think it's a misteak(sp correct) the USA. Leave my Oreos alone.
    May 17, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is American Capital Mortgage's 16% Yield A Substitute For Agency mREITs? [View article]
    In comment to the remarks by Mizshepherdist and Mostserni, I, too, have grown tired of trying to educate the unbelievers that dividends are a valid way to go. But considering the herd instinct of investors and the overwhelming volume of talking heads and Bloggers who are selling beach front property in New Mexico with capital gains and buy low sell high secret information, its no wonder. We live in a world of instant gratification and Lord give me patience NOW! I am perfectly happy that for the most part they stay away from my nice solid plod along dividend stocks, I'll wave to them from my boat.
    May 4, 2012. 01:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is American Capital Mortgage's 16% Yield A Substitute For Agency mREITs? [View article]
    I bought 1,000 shares of American Cap in 2010 at $25 and have been very pleased with it's performance but as with any REIT you are juggling nitro and constant attention is a must. Basic rule for me is never let REITs exceed 10% of your total value of your portfolio.
    Apr 30, 2012. 05:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Investment Choices To Cope With The 'Great Contraction' [View article]
    I have rarely seen such a well delivered and insightful first article written that has brought forth such a wealth of deliberate, thoughtful, and thought provoking commentary as you have provided. My sincere congratlations to you and your many commentators. I am eagerly awaiting your next article.

    I do have a few comment and views to throw into the mix:

    Having worked in and around the oil business some I agree that the Oil Companies per say are not the best bet in this market, much too susceptible to the vagaries of speculation and world politics, and while the drilling and retreval of oil, and gas, from wells has changed greatly that oil and gas must still be shipped to refineries and distributors which me
    and pipe lines and gas lines, which you apparently overlooked, which I do find reasonable investments.
    Jan 23, 2012. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Performance Review Of 7 mREITs Yielding Over 14% [View article]
    I have been holding AmerCap and Hattteras for several years now and they have served me well having never missed or gone down, I gave up on Annaly and Chimera about a year ago, just way to volital for my nerves. I'm not in too deep but they have bought their way clear and that all I can ask for playing with "nitro" stocks.
    Dec 9, 2011. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment