ZardozZ

U.S. Market Setting Up for a 2nd Half Rally

The true test will come at the next FOMC meeting. If the Fed does nothing it will be a signal that a shift in policy is at hand. Dollar will rally and many will long speculative postions in oil and commodities will head for the exits. Air will be let out of that trade and the shorts will begin to move in big time. The Fed will remain ON HOLD until they get a good sense of the reaction to the dollar in the world markets. They will have their eye on inflation and now that that the dollar still holds significant weight in world commodity pricing. I don't believe they will increase rates till early next year.... If it pans out this way there could be a good rally in U.S. equities in H2 but be prepared to take profits early next year when the Fed makes the first move UP.