ZardozZ

Abundant Opportunities in Bear Markets

Don't think the DOW can't wander slowly down another 30-40% over a period of years instead of a precipitous fall as the inflationary pressures build and credit markets remain overly controlled and dysfunctional. Friday, everyone expected, and secretly was indeed hoping for, that massive sell off. Didn't happen. Ooops!!

Mr. Market has a way of working like that. Just the opposite of what most people expect is the market behavior more likely to unfold in the short term. Death by a thousand cuts over a protracted period of time may be more likely because most "investors" are still expecting that full capitulation. It may take years of slow and steady losses in a portfolio until finally nearly everyone decides (at least for awhile) to swear off equity investing for the rest of their lives. i.e. the DEATH OF SPECULATION and the return of TRUE LONG TERM BORING INVESTING WILL ONLY THEM BEGIN AGAIN.... The MACRO BUBBLE is over a generation in the making !!

When does a secular bull return? That's anyone's guess. When do behaviours and habits change? Only when one is burned severely enough for the behavior to change. Greed acquiesces to humility and moderation. For some people that time never comes... Psychiatric hospitals and Gamblers Anonymous counciling groups are filled with people who can't break the cycle of repeating the same negative behaviors over and over again.

Market Safe Havens Rapidly Dwindling

phdinsuntanning --- gutsy call. The safest place to be is in BIL right now and lots of it. T bills.... CASH --- I would agree with diversifying CASH via FXY FXF and FXE to some extent. Hard assets will rule till the smoke clears. The real yellow metal. (Maybe GLD if in fact its really back up with the bullion.) Shorting like crazy means being right twice ! GL in this environment! I rather miss the bottom and catch it on the up swing next year after all the blood in the streets is caked over and vacuumed away.

Risk Management in Trending Markets

Excellent article. I am bookmarking the URL as an excellent reminder of the macro long term trends !! Thanks for all the research :)

U.S. Market Setting Up for a 2nd Half Rally

The true test will come at the next FOMC meeting. If the Fed does nothing it will be a signal that a shift in policy is at hand. Dollar will rally and many will long speculative postions in oil and commodities will head for the exits. Air will be let out of that trade and the shorts will begin to move in big time. The Fed will remain ON HOLD until they get a good sense of the reaction to the dollar in the world markets. They will have their eye on inflation and now that that the dollar still holds significant weight in world commodity pricing. I don't believe they will increase rates till early next year.... If it pans out this way there could be a good rally in U.S. equities in H2 but be prepared to take profits early next year when the Fed makes the first move UP.