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  • Why The Plunge In Gold Is Justified And Why It Might Plunge Even More  [View article]
    Jim Grant-"gold is an investment in monitory chaos". So let's ask ourselves, are the central planners being restrained, or pumping currency into their systems, attempting to manage their economies.
    You can never time the need for insurance. Looking at large volumes of futures contracts, during quiet market periods has to raise your eyebrows.
    Sep 6, 2014. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • G20 Sparks Gold's Ugly Sell-Off  [View article]
    Excellent post. All investors, and "asset managers" will be well served to heed Tom's words about the long term bullish case for gold.
    Feb 16, 2013. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eric Mindich made a bet on the return of volatility (or just hedged his longs) in Q4 with Eton Park's latest 13F showing a 1.35M share position in the VXX. All other positions, including big holdings of Apple, Citigroup, Dollar General, and News Corp. - among others - remain the same as the previous quarter.  [View news story]
    Surprised he would choose this poorly structured product to hedge-good idea wrong vehicle.
    Feb 6, 2013. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • “If the energy surplus ratio continues to decline as it has been, the economy as we know it is finished,” writes Tim Morgan of Tullett Perbon in the most pessimistic piece of economic research you're likely to read this year. “In 1990 it took one unit of energy to extract 40. Today the ratio is barely 17:1 and it is set to pass the critical 10:1 point in the coming decade."  [View news story]
    This is referred to as Peak Energy, and as far as I can research, is true. We are not running out of energy, but every marginal unit will continue to be more expensive to produce.
    Jan 22, 2013. 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paul Krugman on the federal deficit: "The budget deficit isn’t our biggest problem, by a long shot. Furthermore, it’s a problem that is already, to a large degree, solved... The case for urgent action now to reduce spending decades in the future is far weaker than conventional rhetoric might lead you to suspect... So, no big problem in the medium term, no strong case for worrying now about long-run budget issues."  [View news story]
    Shocking that any rational person would take this position, let alone a "learned" economist. The world is in uncharted waters when it comes to total debt vs GDP. It will look ok until the markets say we don't believe in the system anymore. Risk events can happen very quickly. Economists are disconnected from the markets.
    Jan 19, 2013. 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • House Republicans won't bring their "Plan B" tax-cut proposal to a vote tonight, as Speaker John Boehner says he doesn't have the votes; the House will recess until after Christmas. DJIA futures slip 0.2%. Boehner: "Now it is up to the president to work with Senator Reid on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff." Updated: S&P 500 e-Mini futures dive, limit down.  [View news story]
    SP mini down limit. When does the window open for further downward movement? ie: when does the next "trading day" start?
    Dec 21, 2012. 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did we miss a major central bank tightening overnight? The precious metals sector is lit up bright red following the Fed's addition to QE and what looks like the promise of ZIRP for at least 2-3 more years. GLD -1.1%, SLV -2.2% premarket. Copper and oil join in, the red metal -1.4%, and WTI crude -0.6%[View news story]
    The powers that be don't want the precious metals to appreciate, which could lead to a loss of confidence in fiat currencies. This is a coordinated manipulation. It can't last forever. Ask yourself, was the Fed's action supportive of hard assets?
    Dec 13, 2012. 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 earnings results raise red flags for coming quarters: While 68% of companies posted earnings beats, just 41% surpassed revenue expectations - including a 70% miss rate in the materials, industrials and utilities sectors. Q3 EPS estimates now show a 1.8% Y/Y decline, which would be the first quarter of negative growth in three years.  [View news story]
    Be careful what you wish for, if the gov't intervention continues, it will at some point collapse the system. We can't add debt forever and QE does not increase growth, only asset prices.
    Aug 17, 2012. 11:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Geithner-led NY Fed didn't do enough in 2008 to investigate big-bank efforts to manipulate global interest rates, former FDIC chair Sheila Bair tells CNBC: "Looking at those emails, it looks like they had pretty explicit notification of some very bad behavior, and I don't understand why they didn't investigate."   [View news story]
    They did not want to upset their friends.
    Jul 20, 2012. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 30 bp decline in Bank of America's (BAC) net interest margin represents $1.27B in lost quarterly earnings power, says Josh Steiner, a "hit (that) is recurring, not one time." This deterioration in bank's underlying business may help explain the sharp decline in the stock (-4% today,  -4.8% yesterday) despite a headline beat on earnings thanks to a large reserve release.   [View news story]
    to rdullom: what happens if NIM continue to shrink? Growth is slowing, no reason to believe that this spread will recover soon.
    Jul 19, 2012. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 futures are off 0.2% in quiet Sunday night action. The major currency pairs are barely changed from their Friday close.   [View news story]
    As helpful as charts can be, this market will be driven by earnings, earnings revisions, and government policy.
    Jul 8, 2012. 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite the lack of discussion in Congress about the fiscal cliff, it can and will be resolved, says former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Unfortunately, we're at the point in which we can't avoid resolving the issue without some degree of pain. There simply is no set of policies which can prevent the painful consequences to the imbalances we currently have.   [View news story]
    I see scant evidence that politicians want to address our debt problem (they fear losing their base). We are going negative 100 billion per month and few seem nervous about it. The longer we fail to correct it, the worse the fall will be. We are at the point where any more debt will further stall growth, (R&R This Time It's Different). We are lucky the Dollar is the world's reserve currency, it buys us time to get our act together.
    Jun 30, 2012. 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market fears may be reaching a crescendo, which, to contrarians at least, may wind up being good for stocks over the long run. In the most recent consumer confidence survey, the percentage of those who believe stock prices are going to fall shot up from 32.4% to 42.6%. This surge of pessimism is just what's needed, says Bespoke's Nadav Baum. "We're stuck in a trading range ... You need to get that pessimism on the retail side to get the market to break out."   [View news story]
    We have yet to see the earnings hit, and follow on SP earnings downward revisions resulting from global growth slowing. Things are not yet bad enough to make this call, no blood in the streets. All major developed economies are slowing. Not a time to bet long. Funds are leaving the market, consistently. No fund flows, no bull market.
    Jun 27, 2012. 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Money alone or bailouts... or monetary policy at the ECB will never resolve the problem," outspoken finmin Schauble tells German TV. While Italy and Spain are "making great reform efforts," Greece isn't trying hard enough, he says. And Obama's calls for intervention? He "should focus on reducing the American deficit."   [View news story]
    The fact that Obama calls for intervention shows how naive he is when it comes to economics, currencies, and investment. Perhaps Schauble should advise Obama's team.
    Jun 24, 2012. 08:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With the latest data from the Philly Fed calling the recovery further into question, Goldman analysts are calling to short the market over the summer. The firm adds that without any kind of imminent QE, the market will be forced to trade on economic data, which appears to be deteriorating. Other traders aren't so sure, like Fast Money trader Brian Kelly. Kelly sees plenty of upside catalysts in the near term, and thinks the Fed is ready to unleash some serious firepower. Can you say - inflection point?   [View news story]
    Sad that investing has become a Fed mind reading exercise. That is a big reason volume is so low.
    Jun 21, 2012. 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment