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tallmike

tallmike
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  • Apple: 7 Reasons Shorts Can't Sleep At Night [View article]
    Well since this article was posted, shorts stood to gain $122/sh, but now, finally, the downtrend looks to be over with a big rounded H&S bottom in place.

    'Bout time for author to post an article about longs being nervous or something. ;)
    Aug 15 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    Even if you identify fundamental breakage... why try to guess when a floating bubble will pop? Just watch for it and react.

    Hey I just thought of a new market to create and fleece... lemme call Intrade... bubble futures.
    Jan 15 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    Paulo, when I said causal correlation I just meant that the fundamentals don't *necessarily* drive the price, not that they're useless as a tool - we do see bad fundies and rising price here and there. It happens often enough that I think fundamentals alone are not good enough to use as a good predictor of where the price is going to go, and thus certainly not good enough to say that if they don't predict well then its the *market* that is broken.

    When evidence contradicts hypothesis, the hypothesis is wrong - it's not that the experimental apparatus is broken...
    Jan 15 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    Exactly right Rusty. There is nothing broken. No sense in arguing with the market. That is the major flaw in relying on fundamental analysis IMO, the fact there there is zero causal correlation between fundamentals and the actual stock price. If you want correlation, study psychology and price history to see what people *actually* do in these situations, not what they *should* do...

    When I buy stock, I frankly don't give a damn whether the company is making money or not. I care where I think the price is headed. If AMZN looks like it is headed north, I buy. If it looks like the bubble is popping, then I short.

    I care about me making money, not them. That is the whole point of this entire endeavor.
    Jan 14 11:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 7 Reasons Shorts Can't Sleep At Night [View article]
    So how have those fundamentals and business environment been working out for you lately? Maybe you didn't notice but $AAPL was allegedly cheap even at $700.

    Why would anyone fight a trend in the only variable that actually determines whether or not you make money... namely the price action?

    Obviously it will go up again sooner or later - but I guess I'm lazy for not trying to conjure up a reversal on my own, armed with wit and logic.
    Jan 14 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 7 Reasons Shorts Can't Sleep At Night [View article]
    So... $AAPL skyrockets in 2009 and you say the shorts love it. $AAPL plummets now and you say the shorts can't sleep at night. With all due respect, I'm wondering why I would buy the argument when the chart and your own track record (at least a minimal and perhaps superficial examination of it) is saying otherwise. I guess this is what trying to catch tops&bottoms is like?

    Shorts who follow the chart trends can sleep at night the same as longs who do, knowing that the stops they keep moving closer protect them from big losses... right?
    Jan 14 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TechRadar provides the first meaningful review of Microsoft Surface. Its comments are mostly positive, praising Surface's design, ergonomics, and keyboard covers, as well as the performance of apps on Windows RT (MSFT). However, commentary about its software is relatively light. TechRadar's verdict: "Surface doesn't feel like an iPad (AAPL) in your hands; it feels like a well-designed Windows tablet crammed with clever touches that make it practical."  (earlier)  [View news story]
    I'm not a tablet person, doubt I ever will be. Pretend keyboards just don't do it for me.

    But if I ever do change my mind about tablets, it won't be in favor of an Apple, because of the walled-garden aspect of their entire business model. My family's iPad belongs to our 3-year-old for good reason.

    That said, I'm not biting yet - here's a video of Microsoft Surface choking in the middle of an introductory presentation (the horror lol):

    http://bit.ly/LtpdNo
    Jun 25 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steven Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors sold off more than 1M shares of Apple (AAPL) in Q1, and increased stakes in several other techs, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Cisco (CSCO), Oracle (ORCL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). The firm also cut is holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and sold off sizable chunks of ExxonMobil (XOM) and Pfizer (PFE).  [View news story]
    It doesn't mean collusion on the part of the institutional investors, it's the common sense thing to do after a big gain. I got all out of AAPL in the middle of April myself. Obviously when it starts performing again, I'll be back in. In the meantime, a straddle paid off for the earnings move and since a few days after earnings I'm short and that's making profits too. Gotta be nimble if you're not going for capital gains status.
    May 16 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar (FSLR): Q1 EPS of -$0.08 misses by $0.67. Revenue of $497.1M (-27% Y/Y) misses by $184.4M. Shares halted. (PR)  [View news story]
    Hooray for puts.
    May 3 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The next iPhone (AAPL) will feature a 4" display, and will be longer and thinner (but not wider) than the 4S, claims iLounge. In addition, the device, due this fall, is expected to feature Corning's (GLW) Gorilla Glass 2, and sport a smaller dock connector. (previous)  [View news story]
    Yeah, you can either use Google Sky for free, or you can pay for the iPhone knockoff.
    May 3 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The next iPhone (AAPL) will feature a 4" display, and will be longer and thinner (but not wider) than the 4S, claims iLounge. In addition, the device, due this fall, is expected to feature Corning's (GLW) Gorilla Glass 2, and sport a smaller dock connector. (previous)  [View news story]
    So does the smaller dock connector mean this new iPhone won't dock into any of the myriad existing consumer electronics devices with iPod dock ports?

    If so, that is really not a good thing at all. Why break from their standard docking connector now? I'm a bit skeptical of this particular bit of news.
    May 3 02:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying The Dip In Apple Makes Sense Before Earnings [View article]
    DM, he posted that post on Apr16, while AAPL was in full swing of completing that pattern. Thus my interpretation. His Mar27 call had been dead on the money when he posted on Apr16.

    Anyway it doesn't matter now. Earnings changed the game yet again.
    Apr 26 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying The Dip In Apple Makes Sense Before Earnings [View article]
    Um, no. I don't know what country you're from Mr Ke, but in America saying "I called it cold" means I got it right. Synonymous with "dead to rights". Maybe it's a slang term with which you're not familiar. And he did call it cold, considering he noted the pattern on Mar27. But obviously earnings blew the pattern out of the water a few days after confirmation, which was acknowledged all along as a likely possibility.

    Fortunately I had a straddle in place to be prepared for this.
    Apr 25 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying The Dip In Apple Makes Sense Before Earnings [View article]
    That was definitely part of his call. In the link, Brandt called a Livermore top at point 9, point 10 being higher before the drop. We are right now halfway between 12 and 13. His post was on the 16th, so compare your AAPL chart to the historical livermore chart yourself and disregard the call entirely.

    http://bit.ly/IipW1p

    What do you see?

    We all make these calls ourselves, but it is good to have another perspective filed away in case reality turns out quite differently from what we expected. That's all this is. Chances are, earnings on Tuesday negates the whole thing.
    Apr 23 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying The Dip In Apple Makes Sense Before Earnings [View article]
    Calling something cold means nailing it - not missing it. Bears have been calling for a correction in AAPL for months, but on Mar27 Brandt called the decline we just saw in AAPL, down to the pattern. It unfolded pretty much exactly as he hypothesized, which is about as far from broken clock success as possible - and now it has completed the second and final stage of the top pattern that he mentioned on the linked post of Apr16. This is a pattern which his experience has noted came all the way from Jesse Livermore in the 20s.

    True, Livermore was the epitome of boom/bust speculation. He made a great deal of his money calling the 1929 top which began the Great Depression. But he made one ridiculous long bet - he married a woman whose previous four husbands had ALL committed suicide (one wonders what he was thinking)... needless to say, he was the fifth.

    Granted, no oracle is to be trusted. A wise chartist watches the price action and decides for himself. Note, to this day nobody knows how Livermore lost all his money. But they certainly know how he made it in the first place.

    Peter Brandt doesn't sell picks. But to ignore his blog entirely, just because he's calling a possible top in a stock with which you're in love (redflag!) would not be wise. It's just another piece of evidence to soak up when deciding for oneself. I've made plenty of money being long on AAPL myself, and I think it will keep going in the long run. But I'm not going to completely ignore a tradeable classic pattern, regardless of its direction. For now I've taken profits off the table and am waiting to see the next leg declare itself.

    And no matter how right he has been up to now, there is no denying that having earnings in the middle of a pattern can blow it up. But one must look at alternatives to make an informed decision.
    Apr 22 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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