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  • CHINA...
        excellent article about China housing....  did housing prices in Beijing really fall 35% last month? article also says M2 growth last month was lowest in 10 years too.
        think it's an very interesting read
    Dec 15 4:16 PM | Link | Comment!
  • EURO

    EURO – Euro Stress is jumping – EU CDS is hitting a new record - Italian Yields are nearing the “Danger Zone” – EUR Swaps are collapsing again, driving the € near YTD lows – Spain’s bank borrowing from ECB registers biggest jump since June 2010 – Funding issues continue, but German headlines give a bid to some EU banks just now




    EU CDS is hitting a new record


    ·         Klaas Knot, a member of the ECB's Governing Council has said the eurozone bail-out fund or contributions to the IMF have to be at least €1 trillion. The crisis will be solved if the rescue funds are increased

    ·         A new "fiscal compact" designed to mend flaws in the single European currency's framework should be completed in the first six months of next year, European Commission president José Manuel Barroso said Wednesday

    Dec 14 8:48 AM | Link | Comment!
    Options Insight: After the rally, replace big beneficiaries with calls: Improvement in US macro data and a relaxation in global concerns led to a 7% rally in the S&P 500 and a 13% drop in average stock implied volatility over the past two weeks. We screen for those companies which benefitted most from the past two week’s rally and have lower implied volatility.  We recommend that holders of these stocks replace their stock positions with April/May out-of-the-money call options to maintain upside exposure while reducing risk. On average, these stocks rose 10% over the past 2 weeks and 3-month implied volatility fell 18%, now 6 points below 3-mth realized. Investors can buy the closest listed April/May 30 delta call (average 14% out-of-the-money call) for an average of 4% to replace their exposure in AEO, ARO, JCP, TOL, WSM, DHI, NTRS, BA, YUM, PNC, & TER.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Trade 1: Buy NKE Jan'12 $95/$97.5 strangle for earnings (or replace stock with options to gain directional exposure); all eyes on gross margin guidance on 20-Dec earnings. Options are attractive, implying a +/-4.5% move on earnings, lower than the 4Q median move of +/-7.5%. We see the potential for similar, if not more, volatility this earnings as guidance for orders and the gross margin outlook could begin to reflect some key drivers on the horizon that present 15% upside to Street 2012 estimates.

    Trade 2: short DISH stock and sell Jun'12 $24-$32.5 strangles. Options are among the most expensive in the sector, but its spectrum base could result in lower volatility. With a higher value for spectrum helping offset the negative fundamental challenges, we see the potential for DISH implied volatility to decline, benefiting option sellers.

    Trade 3: Buy HON Dec'11 options ahead of guidance update 15-Dec.

    Trade 4: Collect 7% for XLU options; limited near-term catalysts.

    Trade 5: Hedge ACN holdings with puts; risk to earnings 15-Dec.
    Dec 14 8:35 AM | Link | Comment!
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