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TheREALmr.pink
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Head Trader at a multi-Bilion $ Hedge Fund. Expert in derivatives. Look at technical analysis for confirmation.
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  • JPM
    JPM slides are out ahead of their presentation at 12:25...few quick takeaways
        
        1) Q4 IB revs "essentially flat" (C said flat, BAC said up)
        2) Total Euro exposure to euro 5 $27B
        3) Capital return mixed message:
        
        On one hand they are saying they want to be 9%+ Basel 3 by 2012 (implying
        little capital return) but also said depending on earnings they may see modest
        div/buyback increase.
        
        Dimon says they can buy back $1B more in common stock, but says they "may or
        may not" buy back more stock...
        
        Initial reaction post headlines was to sell. ..now we're seeing buyers.
    Tags: JPM, XLF, Banks
    Dec 07 11:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Interesting DD and MOS thoughts - From BARC
    WASDE report is Friday.  Ferts have fallen out of favor recently and lagged during the rally.  Speed is to the upside.  Regardless of your directional view options are too cheap.  Note POT and MOS have weeklies so data is for those.
     
    Another interesting play is DD.  They have a investor day on 12/13.  This is a meaningful event.  Everyone expects them to give 2012 guidance.  Options not pricing in this catalyst at all.  Bullish investors should consider the dec 50 calls for .20 ref lasts nights close of 47.94.  For protection/bearish investors I like the dec 46 puts for .35.  Note these prices are for the 12/16 expiry not the weekly.....
    Tags: DD, MOS, options
    Dec 07 9:43 AM | Link | Comment!
  • NFLX, VZ, GOOG, ERTS, Mobile Payments - from CSFB...

    ·          NFLX (OP, Blackledge): Some positive datapts late in day re subs momentum and House anncd 1x sign in, thereby removing barrier to Facebook/NFLX deal MORE BELOW.

    ·          VZ (N, Chaplin): considering launching new online sub svc offering older movies and TV shows…seems modest –ve NFLX and tradl pay TV, +ve media (in NT, as another digital rev source, though negative on long term bc this is yet again, another datapt highlighting incremental cord cutting risk).

    ·          GOOG (OP, Wang): One key theme from our conf to me seemed to be cling to safety (flight part already happened)…and GOOG now seems buyside cons OW (vs UW ahead of Q2) and in many cases v low conviction/reluctantly so.

    ·          Mobile Payments (Wang): WSJ discusses war over digital wallet MORE BELWO including EBAY take).

    ·          ERTS (NYSE:NR): Star Wars exptd date is Dec 20, so I was thinking that we could see some profit taking (sell on the news also as people take profits post seasonality and game could get pushed out til next year).

    Tags: NFLX, VZ, GOOG, EA
    Dec 07 9:42 AM | Link | Comment!
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