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timddeb

timddeb
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  • What If My Stocks Crash And Burn? Part 1 [View article]
    OK I might be at the other end of the age spectrum than a lot of people, being retired and all, but I tackled this little conumdrum a while back. I looked at what actually happened in the crashes of 87, 07 etc etc. As I am primarily a DGI (i think) I was interested in what happened to the Divi in market downturns. It seemed to me that large companies generally maintain the dolla amounts. Exceptions seem to be when the downturn actually affects their business, but does the SP affect how much a packet of soap powder costs?
    So if there was a market crash I would continue my strategy of watching the fundamentals of the stocks I own, and watch out for opportunites where I think the cost of selling and buying something else will give me enough advantage to negate the affect of fees and taxes. I don't hold as many stocks as you people, I prefer to keep the level down to a point where I can keep an eye out for trouble building up by checking up what is going on with my holdings at least a couple of times a month. If a black swan event occurs, assuming company fundamentals are sound the shares are then much cheaper, and history tells me that the probability is the SP will get back to it's level after a while. Yes I worry when the market craters, but the important thing to me is not to Panic, keep calm and carry on. One little nugget I have learned though...
    If you are going to Panic, Panic Early. Cashing out when the market has found the bottom is not a good idea
    Apr 9, 2014. 08:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    These things run for ever. There are still people in Brittany that think they should not be part of France, people in Scotland who don't want to be part of the UK, and many many Yorkshire people who don't trust people from Lancashire, which goes back to the War of the Roses. That's just in two "stable" parts of Europe, directly attributable in all cases to English/French/Scottish aristocracy acting without regard to morals. Putin's grab of Crimea was well calculated. Wrong but well calculated. He knew that the west would wring their hands but do nothing. The tactic has been repeated down the years by every terrorist leader and despot since the crusades. Make an action, then when challenged make concilliatory noises and spin a line that the polaticians can buy, wait and move on. This crisis has a lot more legs and will run for years, with each time concessions being made allowing Putin to increase mother Russia's holdings.
    Apr 9, 2014. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Retire By Age 60? [View article]
    I retired at 48 for the first time. I am going to do it again this year at 60. It's strange but when you retire the first thing a lot of people do is start another career.
    Apr 9, 2014. 07:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vodafone - The Price Dip Presents A Great Opportunity For Value Investment [View article]
    I am not really sure that AT&T and VZ are competitors with VOD, there is no real overlap in the geographical regions they cover. What I have not been able to discover, and perhaps you have an insight to this, is what is VOD's percentage of the market they operate in and is it growing or waneing? If, as seems to be happening, UK and Europe are rising from their torpor overall revenues should increase. Obviously this makes a price war to gain market share a distinct possibility, how are VOD preparing for this? I have a substantial stake in VOD and endorse their move into fixed line for data transmission, but in the market they operate they need a management that does not just rely on their market improving. Thanks for stateing the upside of this and your research.
    Apr 9, 2014. 07:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher 10-Year Yield Ahead - Not According To These Charts [View article]
    "You really cannot have significant inflation when wage growth is so aenemic."
    I lived through the 70s in the UK. I can vouch we did have significant inflation, at around 15%pa at it's peak without significant wage growth. In fact the UK labour government legislated against it. I remember the writing on the proverbial wall, "Jesus Saves..............not on my salary he doesn't"
    Apr 8, 2014. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Key Shifts Will Lead To Incredible Profitability [View article]
    yup. It's what happens.Some etfs like IDVY sell them immediately but for smallpeople that is what happens, which I suppose the default option is to take the shares.
    Apr 8, 2014. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    no it takes less oil, it is a lower fraction of oil, and contains more energy, which is why diesals get more mpg. Why do you think container ships run on really thick oil?
    Apr 8, 2014. 08:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Hybrids are going to be the future, but......my late 07 Renault 1.5 dci does over 80mpg and I get 60mpg when using French motorways, up to 130kph. Ok I am using Imperial Gallons not US. OK so diesal is dirty but it produces a lot less CO and a lot less emmissions, with reasonable performance.
    Please don't tell me they are noisy either, it is much quieter, especially on a motorway.
    Hybrids still have to overcome the weight penalty of the batteries. Until then they are still cheaper to run than a gasoline model.
    Apr 7, 2014. 09:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Beat High-Frequency Traders [View article]
    Or have a small part of your cash on a buy or sell order outisde the normal trading range. Occasionally the HFTs oblige..................
    Apr 4, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Divorce The Doom: Time For A New Philosophy [View article]
    Hamdy you are typical of new investors. Hopefully you made sound investments and buy part of a company after doing research. If your resrarch is right review your decision in light of what is happening to the whole market. Try to avoid churning, the costs will hurt you in the end.
    Apr 3, 2014. 10:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Key Shifts Will Lead To Incredible Profitability [View article]
    here are some numbers I got from SAN, just look up the SP and do the maths
    you might have to sort out the columns, they look differnt before I push the publish button
    ISC = Issued Share Capital. (their words not mine)

    ISC 1 November 2009 8,155,863,370 after inc
    Monday, November 02, 2009 Scrip 72,962,765 8,228,826,135
    Tuesday, Nov 02, 2010 78 88,713,331 8,329,122,098
    Tuesday, February 01, 2011 65 111,152,906 8,440,275,004
    Wednesday, Nover 02, 2011 49 125,742,571 8,567,241,032
    Tuesday, January 31, 2012 46 167,810,197 9,076,853,400
    Thursday, May 03, 2012 24 284,326,000 9,361,179,400
    Wednesday, Aug 01, 2012 32 218,391,102 9,846,593,674
    Monday, November 05, 2012 38 222,107,497 10,321,179,750
    Thursday, January 31, 2013 41 217,503,395 10,538,683,145
    Thursday, May 02, 2013 34 270,917,436 10,809,600,581
    Thursday, August 01, 2013 33 282,509,392 11,092,109,973
    Monday, November 04, 2013 41 241,310,515 11,333,420,488
    Friday, January 31, 2014 43 227,646,659 11,561,067,147
    ISC as at 3 March 2014 11,561,067,147
    Apr 3, 2014. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banco Santander: Key Shifts Will Lead To Incredible Profitability [View article]
    If you do the sums you will find that your investment has not gained significantly in total value since 2010. I could send you a spreadsheet if you like. I am holding SAN for the expected gain in SP, but the divi is not really a factor for me. I am hoping for some growth then when it plateaus I want to cash out. If others are thinking like me you need to guess when profit taking starts
    Apr 3, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone: A Black Box... Holding A Diamond [View article]
    Has anyone done reliable research on what happens to Dividends on defensive stocks during economic downturns? Going back as far as I could on my portfolio I came to the conclusion that well run companies generaly maintain their dividends at the same dollar level. So a retiree who is running on divi income probably should be able to afford to sit and wait. Readers of SA should be able to avoid most impending disasters with DD? Assuming BX invests wisely so many moving parts should mitigate major downturns in yeild? ANyone who can shoot my thesis down please explain to me why. Thanks in anticipation......
    Apr 2, 2014. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Returns Aren't A Gamble [View article]
    bet you are all happy now? What do you see for the future?
    Apr 1, 2014. 11:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alibaba May Be The Amazon Killer [View article]
    Ever tired to use Alibaba? Not a good experience. Either that is sorted or the price will not trend well.
    Mar 30, 2014. 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
329 Comments
231 Likes