Kyle

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5 Comments

    • Sun Dec 2nd 21:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dow 1 Million Before My Kid Retires
      Wow, could this reply by Brian be more politically biased and full of simple mathematical errors. First off, the graph is not a parabola, it's exponential. Second, the graph doesn't "start" in 1981, it's an exponential curve that is viewed on a linear scale. If you view the data on a log scale, as in the last plot, you will see that the growth is a rather steady upward trend.
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    • Sun Dec 2nd 21:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dow 1 Million Before My Kid Retires
      Wow, could this reply by Brian be more politically biased and full of simple mathematical errors. First off, the graph is not a parabola, it's exponential. Second, the graph doesn't "start" in 1981, it's an exponential curve that is viewed on a linear scale. If you view the data on a log scale, as in the last plot, you will see that the growth is a rather steady upward trend.
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    • Fri Sep 28th 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can ETF Options Offer Cheap Leverage to Reliably Boost Returns?
      There seems to be a fundamental flaw in this analysis that you're ignoring dividend payouts for the etf. Spy normally pays ~2% over your time horizon which you don't get while holding the option that you would have received if you had actually bought the stock
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    • Sun Sep 23rd 00:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looking For Value in Active Management
      On a second note, I am curious where the basis for the chosen slope of the risk return line is derived from. Historical data, if so what data? I am also curious why there is no risk free rate of return assumed. Thanks
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    • Sun Sep 23rd 00:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looking For Value in Active Management
      It seems that all mutual funds / etfs would have this same issue. A mutual fund will inherently, whether they have done it on purpose or not, add value on a risk return basis by adding together individual stocks with correlations that are less than one. Without doing the math, but I'm pretty sure it can be proven, any combination of at least 2 stocks that have a non-one correlation will have a higher return on a risk adjusted basis, than any individual stock; using the model of all equities lying on a line of risk vs return, which is what QPP does, I believe.

      It seems placing stocks and mutual funds on the same risk return line is invalid. Also stocks / mutual funds, if the markets are truly efficient, will not have returns only based on risk, but also on ability to have low correlations to other investments. Any investment with an inherently low correlation should have a lower risk adjusted return... if the markets where truly efficient.
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