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8 Comments

    • Bank of America's Acquisitions: What Was Ken Lewis Thinking? [view article]
      Keep on righting Reggie, I'm not even going to argue the term! Oct 08 05:15 AM
    • MSCI Canada ETF: Safe Commodities Exposure and Much, Much More [view article]
      Recent decisions such as taxing income trusts and royalty increases in Alberta show that geopolitical risk is alive and well in forms less direct than war or nationalization of companies! Feb 23 07:00 PM
    • Consumer Sentiment Hits ‘Danger Zone’ [view article]
      Tclwrap:

      Housing price declines will affect the spending habits of more than just subprime borrowers, especially considering the drop in mortgage equity withdrawals, and the spike in credit card debt.

      On the subject of gasoline vs oil prices, the crack spread has narrowed and squeezed refiners' margins. This won't continue indefinitely. Thus oil price must fall, or gasoline price must rise, or a bit of both.       Nov 11 11:26 AM
    • Consumer Sentiment Hits ‘Danger Zone’ [view article]
      Tclwrap:

      Housing price declines will affect the spending habits of more than just subprime borrowers, especially considering the drop in mortgage equity withdrawals, and the spike in credit card debt.

      On the subject of gasoline vs oil prices, the crack spread has narrowed and squeezed refiners' margins. This won't continue indefinitely. Thus oil price must fall, or gasoline price must rise, or a bit of both.       Nov 11 11:26 AM
    • Farm Belt Boom: What's Everyone Doing with Their Extra Cash? [view article]
      I think the analyst you listened to is really reaching to come up with something original.

      The Census of Agriculture lists (in 2002 anyway) the number of farms in the US as about 2 million, with operators listing their principal occupation as agriculture at 70% or less depending on region. If you assume half the farms of the US are in the Midwest, then this leaves you with 700,000 farmers who will principally benefit from this agriculture boom, and as business owners they will be mostly concerned with improving their balance sheets (debt) after a stretch of lean times. That's a pretty small niche market for consumer discretionary items.

      While the greater population of farm communities will see some spinoff effect, they are still subject to the same consumer slowdown seen in the rest of the country, and this I believe overrides any upturn in the ag sector.       Oct 26 07:12 PM
    • Could China Crash the US Dollar on a Whim? [view article]
      A Couple More, you're right about one thing: China would like to keep exporting to the US. On many other counts you're confused, like failing to recognize the difference between a trade surplus and a budget surplus. The statement that a weak dollar would lead to an appreciation in value of foreign holdings by US investors is confused too. Value no, nominal price in US$ yes. You don't seem to realize that a weak dollar means less purchasing power, which would worsen considerably if China allows the yuan to appreciate. Their 1.4 trillion is not the tool used to peg the currency, it is the result of pegging their currency, and directly benefits the US in the way of cheap imports. If only they'd recycle all those dollars back into US treasuries, then maybe the dollar wouldn't be falling so badly huh?

      On your final comment, yes that does sound familiar. Non-performing loans, high-flying stock market, overpriced real estate... is it the US?




      Oct 25 02:22 AM
    • Baja Mining: Tin Foil Hats Have Their Uses [view article]
      Seems he did apologize... silverstockreport.com/...

      For almost 2 times leverage BAJ has free-trading warrants, exercisable at CDN $1.15 and expiring April 19, 2009.

      I have a position in the warrants.       Oct 19 07:00 AM
    • An Historic Look At the Gold/Dollar Ratio [view article]
      Further to JeffZ's comments:

      When two variables have a significant negative correlation (and a strong theoretical basis for it), then any ratio or comparison of the two should use the inverse of one variable.

      There is no reason to expect a ratio of negatively correlated variables to be stable over time.       Sep 23 09:58 AM
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