William Trent_

iPhone Versus the Rest: More Evidence Smartphone Makers Are in Trouble

Oh, I see... unit growth. Well, whoop-de-doo! They are selling more units because they lowered the price. Its revenue growth that is going to drive earnings growth, which will ultimately drive the stock. The way they are going they'll sell 2 million units, have declining revenue and negative earnings.

That sure contradicts my thesis. Not.

iPhone Versus the Rest: More Evidence Smartphone Makers Are in Trouble

What are you smoking? One year ago Palm did $388.5 million in sales, this year they did $410.5. That is 5.6% using my math. If you are talking sequential growth they did $392.9 million in the November quarter, so the sequential growth was only 4.5%. And the January quarter includes the holiday sales season and is presumably the strongest.

Maybe it was the guidance? $400-$410 marks a sequential decline and a midpoint growth rate of 0.5% over last year's $403.1 million. Oh, and the consensus estimate was $416.

If it weren't for buyout rumors there is no way they would be selling at 21x trailing earnings.

iPhone Versus the Rest: More Evidence Smartphone Makers Are in Trouble

The problem is, many people will at least want to wait to find out for themselves whether the iPhone interface is better. Some will find that it is, some will find that it isn't, but in the meantime the wait can freeze out sales of other models. And given Apple's track record in designing intuitive user interfaces, its a safer bet that it <em> is </em> incredible than that it isn't.

As far as the "wealth of phones that can play music and receive calls," well that is also indicative of the intense competition, which will mean a real hurting if consumer spending slows further.

The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry

Total shipments for the industry were up 7.4%, or slightly above nominal GDP. That is an "industry," not a "growth industry."

And as the pricing chart (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics industry PPI data) shows, prices have been falling by more than 10%. Therefore, 7.4% unit growth less 10% price declines means that revenue is falling, not growing at all.

It is important not to mix up prices and units when discussing the industry's growth or lack thereof.

The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry

I think it will drive sales even more than people are expecting, but not for a while. In the meantime, the time to invest will be when the Vista bulls throw in the towel. Look for MSM stories on the Vista failure, then buy.

The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry

3% of the industry growing at 30% contributes 1% to overall PC "industry" growth. While Apple is a growth company, that says nothing about the PC industry.

We'll see in the Fall whether PC companies can command any extra profits from Vista-ready PCs.

Adobe Should Profit From iPhone; Apple Should From Cisco's Lawsuit

Thanks. To be fair, I did not interview those people myself. The article is a summary of worthwhile research I found from other sources.