William Trent_

Last Week's Semiconductor Suckers Rally

Sorry. It is growth in semiconductor sales (demand) less growth in orders for semiconductor equipment (supply).

Semi Industry Continues to Underestimate Supply/Demand Imbalance

Good point. Furthermore, I am comparing it to North American <i>orders.</i... As such, there are two reasons to doubt the validity of the comparison. Here is my rationale:

1) I use orders for semiconductor equipment rather than sales because I believe the market looks ahead, and orders are a good indicator for future sales (until they start getting canceled.)
2) I use North American orders for two reasons: first, they are provided on a more timely basis (1 month ahead of the global data provided by the SEAJ); second, they are easier (for me, at least) to access.

Using North American data involves an implicit assumption that North American semi equipment makers will approximately maintain their market share. Though this may or may not hold it can be validated on a delayed basis through the SEAJ global report. actually shows that global orders are up 90% (i.e. US manufacturers are losing share) and the situation is therefore worse than I originally painted it. I didn't even bother mentioning this in a post because I figured the way it was painted was bad enough already.