William Trent_

The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories

I doubt it. Sideways oil prices would simply give consumers time to become comfortable with the price level. It will take a somewhat relentless upward price trend to force consumers out of their comfort zone enough to make significant changes to the status quo.

The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories

There's another way to skin that cat - do you think the alternatives have more than 3% upside? If not, you might as well go for the ones paying the dividend.

The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories

There will definitely be a surplus again in the future. The question is how far in the future. Ultimately the high prices will encourage enough exploration and development, along with conservation and substitution, all of which will take place all at once and send oil prices into a 15-year bear market. My best guess is that this will be sometime around 2012-2015, but I could be way way off in either direction.