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KISS_investor

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  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    How do you buy preferreds as a retail investor?

    Is there a specific resource (without a full service broker) or trading platform that is used for this.
    Mar 16, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast beats on revenue as cable sales grow 6% [View news story]
    It costs money to add subs.. and they run the company for EBITDA...they do not manage earnings...they added more customers than they expected.

    also advertising was weak and that's the most unpredictable income stream they had...

    it was nice revenue beat, they UPPED the buyback...that's a wow at $58 a share...

    if you think about it what comcast did the last 10 years was brilliant...they consolidated the cable industry, they bought a huge programming company and issued tons of stock...which they bought back in huge chunks at $15 -$55 per share!! and they are buying more... they leveraged their stock price basically

    pretty brilliant..
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Title II Net Neutrality Ruling Causes Carrier Stocks To Pop [View article]
    Well said. It's amazing how misunderstood this whole issue has become.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: The Soap Opera Doesn't Change This Special Situation Play [View article]
    I worked with bankers my entire corporate life. I sold credit to dozens of big Wall Street banks. One word solves all. Fees.

    I have been involved in banking deals where we could not even get a going concern opinion from our accountants.
    All that happened was the banks made us pay a higher fee, they did their own credit analysis based on the unapproved financials and gave us 12 months to clear it all up... after a 6 month extension and another hefty fee, all was well....we sold the company a year later and the banks got a nice fee for that too..

    I'm not saying ARCP holds the cards. I am saying that they are an attractive company to bank.

    The proformas will be done with high and low cases representing knowable risks, and the banks will decide pricing and fees accordingly.

    Plus, there is potential M&A here, that is the holy grail of banking

    Whoever runs this company will have banking ties. The CFO and CEO will have lots of experience with lots of banks and they will have their own favored bankers. In fact, my bet is that banks will be a meaningful part of getting management in place. It all goes together.

    ..I believe speculative investors should not consider banking risk as a major part of their analysis..
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC pauses review of Comcast-Time Warner merger [View news story]
    The merger is a huge win for Comcast.

    It is highly likely to get approved but they will continue to negotiate over things like net neutrality, programming and divesting of some assets.

    Comcast has shown over and over again that it can buy underperforming assets and grow them profitably.

    If the merger is tanked for any reason, I would expect the stock to get hit.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama backs tough net neutrality rules [View news story]
    If ISP's are forced to run their business government style, look out.

    Ever hear of Amtrak? the post office?? how's your health care working out if you don't have a gold plated corporate plan??

    Ever hear of "good enough for government work?"..have you ever been in the room with a government regulator that is looking at your business (I have)..
    welcome to costs up, service down...

    you can say it can't get worse but I laugh in your face..the government makes everything worse...

    getting the government involved just adds another middleman to the equation, its just a tax on all of us.

    there is no free lunch...only a fool would believe that.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: An Important Capital Return Update [View article]
    I think the next 12 months will show that the recent drop in US cash is due to across the board internal investment on the current product cycle which will include wearables in 2015.

    If the cash continues to drop, then that is a possible concern if you are looking for dividend growth. Bondholders will prove that APPL has plenty more debt capacity, and my bet is that we see a large increase in cash as the current product cycle play out.
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Stock Has Become A Prisoner Of The Net Neutrality Debate [View article]

    http://bit.ly/1tz1txn

    Please get your facts straight.

    Netflix is far away from a cash flow machine. Where do you come up with that?

    So tell me, who is gonna invest $16 billion a year to build out an unprofitable network that takes many years to build against a massive incumbent with high cash flow and cash flow growth?

    The economics of building a competitive network are not viable.
    Remember Google has to dig ditches, hire unpredictable contractors that screw up and make the company look bad, deal with unions, deal with city councils (I've done it...it was the worst 3 years of my life), then run a highly capital intensive, highly customer service dependent network with ultra high marketing spend.

    Have you seen how many commercials are out there for Xfinity, FIOS, Dish and Direct TV?

    What makes anybody think they will be good at this long term?
    Nov 3, 2014. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Stock Has Become A Prisoner Of The Net Neutrality Debate [View article]
    This doesn't reflect what's going on in the real world.

    I think Comcast will somehow survive the next three years while google tests some markets?

    How much is Google spending? Do you know? Do you know they are slowing down big time because the time to market, the costs, and the take up rates are not what they thought? Investors do not want them to spend the many billions to build out one market at a time for an unprofitable service.

    If you don't live in test beds like KC, Austin or Chattanooga when do you think your network will be disrupted?? (I'm sure there will be more tests but its a tiny amount relative to all US homes)

    Look I want speeds faster and cheaper too, but as an investor I see almost zero prospect of cable being disrupted in any reasonable period of time.

    This equity is a predictable, sustainable, growing cash flow machine. They are buying back stock and will buy back much more. I had it at 15, I just bought more in the recent drop. I feel the analysis is correct and gridlock has the stock locked up for now but that's a time to average in.
    Nov 2, 2014. 08:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Stock Has Become A Prisoner Of The Net Neutrality Debate [View article]
    Comcast is not losing video customers.
    Nov 1, 2014. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revenues Prove That Cable TV Is Not Dead Yet [View article]
    Netflix is not a threat to cable

    Do you understand the "cable" business? I am sure you are aware for instance its the cables that pay the programmers for video and then mark it up for us?

    So in a world where Netflix makes those payments, and people watch online, the cable co's will simply charge (more) for bandwidth, and reap margins in excess of 80%..their tv margins are in the 30%-40% range...

    Netflix's own growth will cause it to confront the elephant in the room(programming costs). Netflix customer proposition will stay strong, but programmers themselves will increasingly go over the top of the tv and stream around Netflix.

    As streaming proliferates, Netflix will do just fine. So will cable.

    Nice try with the blockbuster reference, but its a total fail. Its almost like you are channeling the opposite game What you are saying is that fundamentally wrong..

    Blockbuster infrastructure was bricks and mortar, they had high expenses and they took the risk on buying up product in advance to rent it out. They took the risk of investing in real estate in advance of revenues.
    It turned out it was lower cost to distribute video in other ways. The model failed because they were not the low cost provider.

    Cable infrastructure is the network, it is a sunk cost of literally $100's of billions...to compete with them, you must spend that money. It's the opposite of Blockbuster. The cost to compete is prohibitive.

    Why do you give Google a free pass on logic and financial reality? What makes you think Google would be good at managing construction crews(especially unions)? Google will never ever scale out a network. It is too expensive and would take 50 years. Verizon built out 18mm homes in 20 years
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revenues Prove That Cable TV Is Not Dead Yet [View article]
    That's correct

    The reason rolling out fiber is difficult and slow is because its difficult and slow, and EXPENSIVE...incredibly so...

    It's only economically viable in small areas. And when I say viable I mean it in the context of not losing too much money. Verizon found this out with FIOS.. they ended up with a marginally profitable network that has little or no advantage over current cable offerings..it is really important to understand that to accomplish this, Verizon redlined their buildout and ignored areas that were not good for them demographically...

    I don't believe the google spin. I don't believe their offerings are even close to profitable and the only reason investors are not freaking out is because the buildout is so small..

    Finally, with Comcast continuing to expand, Google will be forced to compete directly with Comcast as opposed to picking off vulnerable areas if they want to really matter in this space..
    Oct 19, 2014. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast's Share Price Will Gain From Bright Future [View article]
    The CMCSA shares are voting shares and are much more liquid.
    Sep 15, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internet companies battle for net neutrality [View news story]
    wait a second...

    so the companies that actually control the content that we see on their service are manipulating the content we see to convince us that the big bad ISP's are going to have to much control over the content and speed of what we see?

    ummm...

    Al Gore was the keynote speaker at the NCTA convention many years ago..
    Sep 10, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Mistakes And Investment Solutions [View article]
    I retire in 5 years.

    I am not a financial planner but I am a financial analyst and budgeting is by far the most important thing you can do..

    the other thing people tend to underestimate is taxes and health care

    My goal is $2.5mm by 60 (5 yrs)..generate $80-90k pretax income.. based on my budget I would have to deplete less than 2% per year of assets and possibly $0(depends on health care)... I could cut back travel and i'm budgeting $20k a year for health care which is too high but you never know if you get sick....house is paid for

    I do not include social security in any budget.. that is gravy and I will wait as long as possible to get that

    what do you think of muni bond funds that generate 5-7% tax free?
    Sep 4, 2014. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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