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  • The 4% Retirement Rule In The Real World [View article]
    thats what i said....heh sheeeesh
    Apr 17 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4% Retirement Rule In The Real World [View article]
    This last couple days highlights your point..

    mathematically this type of strategy requires a good start..two bad years at the beginning can have a huge impact on future financial quality of life..and lets be honest, the first couple of years of retirement can be a very exciting time and i bet a nickel that spending is more than your first guess

    ..you have to learn to "live retired"

    rather than 4%, its better to figure out what you need and back into what you need to make..quibbling about 4 or 5 or 2 percent is just math...you should first figure out what your lifestyle would be at a 0% withdrawl rate...and gauge that quality of life against a 2 or 4 % rate... risk happens so fast...

    its also important to realize that 4% rule of thumb relates to rules of thumb for life expectancy...and rules of thumb for providing some cushion for long term health care...those are changing over time..we are living longer, and health care is only getting more expensive
    Apr 17 10:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
    this is funny...

    dont feed the troll Bill...

    good article..
    Apr 14 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
    so basically you are here to whine about cable companies...thats ok..

    as a customer sometimes they piss me off too..not alot of choice in what i pay...i did switch to fios at one point, but comcast had more on demand...they have tons of free stuff that's in netflix's pay catolog..

    I find lots of value for money..i like hbo especially..i watch alot of sports..the sports choice is incredible....and my internet works great and i can't recall an outage ...phone is essentially free...

    i like netflix too...but i don't find they add alot to my choices..i had it a couple years ago and cancelled...i'll check out house of cards and arrested development...i'll probably get nflx for a couple months and decide to stay or go then..

    dsl reports is a good forum where you can find lots of people complaining if you are interested..
    Apr 13 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
    marc there is alot more analysis and numbers in bill's comments than yours..

    netflix is trading at a 500x pe multiple (give or take) the burden of proof is not on the bear case

    your whole set of comments is just a bunch of 30000 feet observations...20% growth is nothing to sneer at...ok, so what...how does that relate to the current stock price..you havent looked at it..

    your comparisons to walmart in other comments make literally no sense in the context of the incredibly competitive video distribution business...your comments about house of cards leaves out the literally dozens and dozens of shows on hbo, showtime and others ..the more exclusives owned by NFLX, the more exclusives on other streaming channels...

    you are making the common seeking alpha mistake of throwing some comments around when you have no stake in the game and really don't have alot of info to back up your speculative gut level view...you liking house of cards is less relevant than the idea that some meaningful percentage of the streaming hours are not value added to NFLX..

    right or wrong, bill's analysis has alot of meat on the bones, your comments do not..
    Apr 13 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
    its not a reasonable argument to say something that disagrees with you is a militant statement..

    netflix is the stock with a 500x PE multiple...

    people are cutting cable cords...but data pricing will prevent mass defection...and things like local and sports programming will keep many subscribers on board..

    cable and programmers are in control, and will always be in control

    you cant get netflix without a broadband connection...
    netflix has nothing without programming contracts which become more expensive as competitors proliferate...

    if you watch alot of tv, and you cut the cord..in 2 or 3 years you will be paying $100+ for that connection...and you'll be limited to nflx programming...if youdon't watch alot of tv...who cares if you cut the cord..

    if you do cut it, you will get to avoid the hated cable company, but get less value for your money...that's the equation you will be faced with...your continued subscription will fullfil Mencken's quote...
    Apr 13 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why 4 Billion Hours Is Not An Investment Thesis [View article]
    actually cord cutting was not on the rise as the year went on for comcast...and whatever cord cutting happened, it was very modest and was covered by larger increases in data subs..

    Don't forget that in reality the cable industry in general has allowed a modest amount of cord cutting...they have not really tried very hard to stop it...they have high margins, and will keep those margins high...they are growing sustainably and are happy with their growth...

    if in the next year or years cord cutting becomes an actual burden to their growth, they will offer packages to disincent it ...they will start competing harder and they have gigantic cash hoards to do it..and 2nd , and this is key..they will more aggresively separate data only packages..they will raise raises by the exact amount neccessary to crush more cord cutting...a $20 or $30 increase in the internet only service (required for netflix) will end most cord cutting..whats the point of cord cutting when the tv part ends up being just part of the bundle...comcast is already blanketing their areas with free wifi to enable this strategy


    comcast competes with netflix but is totally ok with their survival...its a terrific service that drives data subs for them..

    it is an investment fallacy that cord cutting is something that drives netflix's gigantic PE....
    Apr 12 08:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is In Trouble [View article]
    comcast owns dark fiber too...i'd guess more than google..

    dark fiber is more about the long haul... its the short haul digging and mucking about that costs the money..

    also you should challenge this idea...

    google is only building in profitable areas vs googles build challenges comcast..... i can assure you that "profit" is going to be loosely defined by google... cables did it for years...allocate capex to multiple revenue streams (even R&D) and you can create "project" profit as the costs are not included...

    and if google rejects unprofitable areas, then they will never even come close to being a competitive threat except in very small pockets...

    google actions are not consistent with a company trying to overbuild a large portion of the US...they are consistent with a company doing small scale tests of technology to pressure cables to ramp up the speed.... and that's exactly how its playing out as comcast is ramping up speed market by market..(At no add'l cost i might add)
    Apr 10 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is In Trouble [View article]
    what a silly statement...
    DSL blows compared to cable.....so you choose cable...but you have no choice...which is it?
    that's why comcast is not in trouble... whine away..but for $5/day you get a massive amount of video and internet usage... i

    your statement comparing Comcast management to criminals that stole money from shareholders betrays your total lack of seriousness...keep p'ing in the wind and stay wet my friend...
    Apr 9 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is In Trouble [View article]
    it just came over the wire...austin rolls out by mid 2014...so maybe Boise in 2015 and Charleston in 2016... ok i admit, i'm being sarcastic...but this is a nothing but a test until at least 2015 and likely much longer...

    comcast is simply not in trouble...

    more competition?? there always is, but frankly it hard to imagine a bigger and more powerful barrier to entry than tens of millions of entrenched customers taking advantage of a $100 billion network buildout that made it happen..
    Apr 9 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is In Trouble [View article]
    thnx for responding..
    but I don't see how based on your response you can justify saying "Comcast is in trouble"

    its a very weak hand when you say "I'm sure google did alot of analysis"...i guess you are implying comcast didnt?? i would guess that they did...and i would guess they are going to be ready area by area as google attempts to overbuild...

    wireless is a canard...we pay out the nose for 4,6,8GB data plans and already networks are filled with data..bursting with data...

    it sure seems like its hatred more than anything....i don't see how it helps good investment analysis..

    speaking of hatred.....subscription service businesses (those with monthly bills) are the ones that consumers love to hate..googlle will quickly find out that customer service is hugely cost and time intensive when you are basically running a gigantic hardwire network...and when they've collected their upfront payment, what makes you think they will answer your call when service goes out...

    and yes, 20 markets will not matter...50 will only start to matter... verizon and att overbuilt comcast and they simply grew and grew...
    and they are still growing!

    also you didn't address that within a year or two, comcast will have 100GB service basically everywhere...with only incremental cost...

    to the youtube tout...all streaming services require and internet connection...not sure what your point is...but i'll cut you a deal....let google stream the state of the union...i'll take comcast streaming the olympics..
    Apr 9 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is In Trouble [View article]
    get your facts straight...comcast lost 300,000 video subs in 2012..and they gained 1.3 million data subs... that's just their INCREASE in data subs...they will have 20million internet subscribers at the end of this year...google will have what?? 5000??
    (i actually don't for sure..but it aint many)

    before i sell all my stock, can you answer a couple things?

    how many decades before google ramps their fiber into 1/3 of comcast's service area?? what do you think comcast's response will be??? you are aware the comcast is inexpensively and quietly expanding higher and higher speed service? you are aware verizon already tried this and can't make money at it except in high income areas?? and it took them 15 years to build out less than 25% of comcasts service area??

    how much programming does google own to compete with comcasts and time warners massive library? what will be the cost for them to own programming? are you aware comcast has programming contracts that guarantee they pay the lowest price??

    how much infrastructure investment will be required by google to have any scale at all and how does that relate to a $300 fee??

    what is your evidence that google has any experience and knowledge at all about scaling out a massive and complicated infrastructure buildout??? google could annouce 20 more rollouts and it would still be literally a non event for comcast..

    blind hatred of a company leads to poor analysis..
    Apr 9 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Google Fiber's Next Stop: Austin, Texas." Thus temporarily read a page on the Google Fiber site, before getting removed. Meanwhile, "multiple City of Austin sources" tell local ABC affiliate KVUE Google's (GOOG) Tuesday event will indeed be about a Fiber launch. It's safe to assume local ISPs Verizon and Time Warner Cable aren't pleased. [View news story]
    If google keeps this up, i'm selling..

    i'm actually long cmcsa/vs/aapl/goog....

    overbuilding cable networks is a money pit..

    what evidence can they provide that they can economically provide scaled data distribution? are you all aware that cable is starting to roll out 50 and 100 MB service at NO add'l cost, and they do it cost effectively by incrementally improving their network?

    also, we pay for programming...distribu... collect the money and pay programmers on our behalf and keep the margin...higher costs are more about programming costs...we are moving to more choice but will pay more per choice...and the more we flow toward choice, the more we will pay for always on internet...its just math..its why comcast and verizon are slow grow dividend machine buys..

    if you don't live in tiny pockets of austin or kc, you will not see this anyway until 2015 or later....there are 115 million households in the US...maybe there will be 1 million google fiber homes by 2016 or 2017...maybe...because by then comcast and verizon will be at 100MB everywhere.....

    and if you truly beleive google is LESS greedy than verizon i have some stuff in basement to sell you..and like i said its the greed of programmers that drives costs as much as anything..
    do you think disney will ever take less ?
    Apr 7 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons To Sell The Number 1 Cable TV Provider [View article]
    i'm long this equity..accumulated over last couple years..it kind of covered my apple losses...hehe

    what do you think will happen as more cord cutters/haters leave the tv programming? btw...this may be a trend but its a very slow trend..and programmers will resist this...the pound of flesh is coming out of consumers somewhere and its just a question of where ...who gets the margin?? my feeling is that broadband distribution will benefit and keep getting their share..

    cmcsa response to cord cutting will be more tiered broadband costs...if you want to cut the cord..internet only will be much more expensive.. and the MARGINS on internet for cable are astronomical...pay per view only?? that's fine, but get ready to pay so much that you'll default to the subscription...

    consumers are already conditioned to pay data costs with wireless...

    as an investor i don't see any challenge to this in the foreseeable future..

    Comcast bought nbc at rock bottom prices...it almost inevitable they will improve...it may take a while but i don't find nbc to be a drag and is neutral at worst...

    i agree the easy money has been made..but comcast is a free cash flow machine and becoming a dividend aristocrat ..it feels like a core holding along with one of the vz/t/vod to get the wireless side of the equation..
    Apr 4 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Netflix's Stock? [View article]
    the thing to remember is that the idea this is being kept afloat by speculators is investable up to a point...

    its not a stupid idea to say it will go back up like a rocket on any bit of good news or good sub numbers...but the day icahn or another big owner decides to lock in gains is the day after the day you should have sold... no real way to know.. and because lots of these guys are loosely in cahoots, and share chatter all the time...it will happen very quickly..
    Apr 3 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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