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KISS_investor

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  • "Google Fiber's Next Stop: Austin, Texas." Thus temporarily read a page on the Google Fiber site, before getting removed. Meanwhile, "multiple City of Austin sources" tell local ABC affiliate KVUE Google's (GOOG) Tuesday event will indeed be about a Fiber launch. It's safe to assume local ISPs Verizon and Time Warner Cable aren't pleased. [View news story]
    If google keeps this up, i'm selling..

    i'm actually long cmcsa/vs/aapl/goog....

    overbuilding cable networks is a money pit..

    what evidence can they provide that they can economically provide scaled data distribution? are you all aware that cable is starting to roll out 50 and 100 MB service at NO add'l cost, and they do it cost effectively by incrementally improving their network?

    also, we pay for programming...distribu... collect the money and pay programmers on our behalf and keep the margin...higher costs are more about programming costs...we are moving to more choice but will pay more per choice...and the more we flow toward choice, the more we will pay for always on internet...its just math..its why comcast and verizon are slow grow dividend machine buys..

    if you don't live in tiny pockets of austin or kc, you will not see this anyway until 2015 or later....there are 115 million households in the US...maybe there will be 1 million google fiber homes by 2016 or 2017...maybe...because by then comcast and verizon will be at 100MB everywhere.....

    and if you truly beleive google is LESS greedy than verizon i have some stuff in basement to sell you..and like i said its the greed of programmers that drives costs as much as anything..
    do you think disney will ever take less ?
    Apr 7 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons To Sell The Number 1 Cable TV Provider [View article]
    i'm long this equity..accumulated over last couple years..it kind of covered my apple losses...hehe

    what do you think will happen as more cord cutters/haters leave the tv programming? btw...this may be a trend but its a very slow trend..and programmers will resist this...the pound of flesh is coming out of consumers somewhere and its just a question of where ...who gets the margin?? my feeling is that broadband distribution will benefit and keep getting their share..

    cmcsa response to cord cutting will be more tiered broadband costs...if you want to cut the cord..internet only will be much more expensive.. and the MARGINS on internet for cable are astronomical...pay per view only?? that's fine, but get ready to pay so much that you'll default to the subscription...

    consumers are already conditioned to pay data costs with wireless...

    as an investor i don't see any challenge to this in the foreseeable future..

    Comcast bought nbc at rock bottom prices...it almost inevitable they will improve...it may take a while but i don't find nbc to be a drag and is neutral at worst...

    i agree the easy money has been made..but comcast is a free cash flow machine and becoming a dividend aristocrat ..it feels like a core holding along with one of the vz/t/vod to get the wireless side of the equation..
    Apr 4 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Netflix's Stock? [View article]
    the thing to remember is that the idea this is being kept afloat by speculators is investable up to a point...

    its not a stupid idea to say it will go back up like a rocket on any bit of good news or good sub numbers...but the day icahn or another big owner decides to lock in gains is the day after the day you should have sold... no real way to know.. and because lots of these guys are loosely in cahoots, and share chatter all the time...it will happen very quickly..
    Apr 3 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Going On With Netflix's Stock? [View article]
    netflix does deserve a 15x pe...by their own admission they view themselves as HBO....HBO does not have 100x p/e multiple

    15x pe is not so bad in the end, i'd invest in nflx at around those levels if i was looking for exposure to their space...

    the smart bulls know that they are trading a high beta crazy multiple...not a stock price...

    they know this thing could be $250 or $100 based just on the next pieces of news... that's attractive to big pockets of fast money

    they know all the business fundamentals are stacked against nflx, but they don't care...for people here just be aware who you are investing with...these guys come in and out very quickly

    nflx will survive..they do have a great brand, they do own a nice bit of programming rights but those costs are not in their control...
    and there is always the jv or buyout...that's worthy of discussion but its tough to invest for a buyout...
    Apr 3 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber: An Optical Illusion [View article]
    Verizon gave up committing to more FIOS and is now harvesting the cash flows for what they built over the last 10+ years. this stuff takes a long long time...i can't imagine google spending one dime in areas where there are already two networks..

    consumer hatred does not pay for what would be a $100+ billion buildout of a me too network...that's a conservative estimate..i believe verizion spent $20 billion and built only built out less than 20% of the US...

    the comment about google being smart and pre signing up is technically correct but ignores that it takes years to go from planning a buildout and to your first customer...starting with local approvals.. when the overbuild is planned, cable simply INCREMENTALLY(sorry for the bold) expands and upgrades service on a priority basis...and there is no reason they can't lay more fiber, comcast has owned massive dark fiber runs since level 3 days... and as the new guy comes they slash pricing ...

    by only putting fiber in select neighboorhoods, goog is basically redlining.this is not politically unsustainable ..it only works in the context of a "test"...if they truly tried to compete, they will have to invest is large low income areas... verizon faced this issue and basically gave up getting new areas as the local governments figured out that verizon was prioritizing high income areas...

    Financial leverage is very managable for the cables and it actually gives them an advantage because they arent afraid to borrow $billions to upgrade (which leverages financial return for shareholders)...
    Mar 28 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Netflix Dominate The Living Room? [View article]
    with comcast and verizon being the big winners...

    data is the golden goose...they are quietly and incrementally upgrading while printing money today..

    the single most important gating factor for the continuing increase in fidelity and availability of streaming is the network...

    speeds will increase, caps will increase and data will be tiered...

    programmers will charge more, and the middle man will get squeezed and squeezed...

    as an aside, i would not be surprised if apple benefits by creating a very intuitive interface to control all of this...they are already integrating ipads with my xfinity service ..

    whether they get into the specific model of being an over the top "channel" or not is still a question....
    Mar 16 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The Latest Threat To Apple: The Samsung Galaxy S4 [View article]
    this is true...

    but the "So what" nature of the reviews stomps out the cool factor samsung was building...

    S4 is a great phone...different and more advanced in a number of ways...but so is the S3.... 'Building" on this was neccessary...but there was no leap or "must have" advance that changes the game

    thats all thats happening...market was pricing in a devastating blow to apple...it didn't happen..

    now it will start pricing in the change apple with counterpunch hard... admittedly thats a bet...we wont know until we know..
    Mar 16 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The Latest Threat To Apple: The Samsung Galaxy S4 [View article]
    read some more reviews

    for aapl bulls its good news because basically samsung had the microphone and the audience and basically had nothing...

    the risk for aapl bulls is that aapl has nothing too..

    and in that case we are just looking at a brutally competitive margin challenged world
    Mar 15 10:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The Latest Threat To Apple: The Samsung Galaxy S4 [View article]
    well mr market has spoken...

    the initial reaction is + for apple...

    - for samsung...

    will be interesting to see if a little momo goes a long way for apple..

    rotation back in after missing huge bull run in general market??
    Mar 15 09:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Meet The Latest Threat To Apple: The Samsung Galaxy S4 [View article]
    I was really really surprised by S4 launch event...

    engadget was unimpressed...they were left "cold"...

    overall, given everyone knew of the event, this is short term positive for apple..neutral for samsung in my book...

    this new phone will be unlikely to increase the trend of people switching from apple..

    remember as an investor yesterday there was fear of unknown...now its known...no knock your socks off features

    next move is for apple..
    Mar 15 09:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why P/E Doesn't Mean Netflix Is Overpriced [View article]
    i did business in brazil, chile and peru...have you been there? I have...if you go, bring alot of cash...lots of $20's to start...

    foreign businesses cannot succeed there except marginally...
    they are not US style business friendly places..

    also, the programming world there is local programming, variety and sports..

    ..510.. you really are just making stuff up..taking stats that you find interesting and hoping they apply...

    look just face it...this equity does not trade on price or value...it trades on momentum....those are the stocks that light on fire and then crash and burn... they fill these message boards with uninformed people that hit a lucky home run and think they know what comes next..(another home run)... it may well happen...NFLX at $400..why not?? the actual value is irrelevant at this point..

    if that happens it has nothing to do with what you are saying, and everything to do with a large block of investors that play this game with high growth/low profit stocks... its a very profitable game for them, and for folks that identify the trend and play it...you are playing the same game so make sure you learn the rules..
    Mar 12 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why P/E Doesn't Mean Netflix Is Overpriced [View article]
    netflix has no pricing power...

    they compete on price and brand... and their brand includes the low price..

    they are good value for money as they say..

    raising prices is not going to help them...especially because as they manage programming costs, they will balance new exclusive programs and give up others..their library will evolve to a smaller more focused concept...in their own words be more like HBO

    so you have to look at HBO , and see what they are valued on a cash flow multiple basis...

    this is all gonna stop at one of the next quarter reports...this is classic momo investing....momentum buyers can make good money ....they are still in because they think the news cycles favor nflx in the short term...they may be right...the stock doesnt trade on valuation, so who knows how hi it goes...but these folks run in packs, so momentum goes both ways...

    but i feel bad for the retail folks on this forum that do not understand what they are investing in...they are focused on the reward and have no fundamental understanding of the risk...
    Mar 9 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    this keeps popping up on my screen as "new messages"

    how ironic that the original poster benefits so much from such a flawed piece of work...

    ++++

    my worthless apple prediction is that salad days are coming... to be an apple bear you have to bet that their emerging market strategy fails, that there are no meaningful new products EVER, that they cannot improve the monetization of their walled garden, that the already baked in margin issues get worse, that their next iterations of iphone/ipad fall flat, and they will do nothing good with their cash hoard other than leave it in landfills all over the globe...


    now can i please have a couple thousand clicks so i can get some starbucks
    Mar 8 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking to protect the duopoly/near-duopoly positions they have in many U.S. broadband markets, U.S. telcos and cable companies are lobbying hard to put an end to publicly-funded broadband networks, arguing (without irony) such networks hurt competition. AT&T (T), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Windstream (WIN), and Comcast (CMCSA) are some of the incumbents to have mounted lobbying efforts, which have led at least 19 states to place restrictions on public broadband investments. [View news story]
    as a customer i hate it..

    as an investor i love it..

    i hate that i love it....but such is life..
    Mar 8 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth $265 [View article]
    For the SA contributors its anything to get a click...

    lots of excellent debate in the comments though
    Mar 7 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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