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  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    First to market, first to fail. Nobody cares.
    Ask Blackberry, ask Nokia.
    By your logic, Comcast is first to market ISP, so they must be special too!

    No high speed internet, no Netflix.

    And yes its $100's of billions, with an s. Comcast invested over $100 billion from 1996-2010. They spend additional billions every year just to maintain the network. They cover less than 30% of the country. Verizon spent $23 billion on FIOS in the initial build out phase that left them covering approximately 15% of the country.

    By the way, its Comcast that blankets their cities with thousands of high speed wifi hotspots so you can watch Netflix on your ipad... and regardless of the past, I now have a cloud DVR that allows me to watch on any tv or device..
    and the X1 platform (which came way later than Netflix) is hugely popular and much easier to use than Netflix..nobody cares that Netflix was first.

    Everything Netflix does is getting copied by better capitalized companies.
    Everything Netflix does is easily replicated by anyone willing to invest in programming. They create no value that cannot be easily copied by others.
    Apr 25 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    The industry is subject to regulation.

    And the issue with it is defining the public good.

    If you view the public good as involving access to movies then i'm going to respectfully disagree with you. It is not in the public good for you to have more on demand choice.

    If you view the public good as having access to the "info superhighway" you should know this is already highly regulated. Reasonable people can disagree on the nature of specific regulations, including the new concept that is very simple and widely misunderstood.

    Rather than have every customer pay the ISP's to upgrade so that other multibillion companies like amazon google and Netflix can stuff the pipe to their own benefit to SOME customers, have the companies pay the freight for faster more reliable speeds....

    It's not perfect, nothing is. What would you suggest that would actually work out better? A regulatory framework is a huge disincentive to further investment that will be required to continue to improve networks.

    Apr 25 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Tests Price Increases Again [View article]
    Netflix is a terrific product. It's not everybody's cup of tea

    Right now it is priced at a rate where Netflix can't make a profit so they are upping the price..

    Since that announcement, Amazon locked up HBO and Netflix gave good guidance and good sub numbers. The stock tanked.

    Those are the facts on the ground. The problem with Netflix is not the product...It's fine, I have it, I watch it rarely but for $8 I don't care that much...
    I keep up with some serial shows and I enjoy Orange is new black and used to enjoy house of cards..

    The problem with Netflix is the stock price. Sometimes the two get confused..
    Netflix needs astronomical growth and it needs pricing power, and it needs to ensure it's product gets super fast steaming to customers at low cost...

    This all may happen, but it would fly in the face of logic that says the big guns are coming in to commoditize this space

    And yes, Sakelaris tends to read everybody's mind and somehow feels a person that doesn't like Netflix must have an agenda.

    Hey I have an agenda.. I think the stock price is way too high and enjoy debating it. But I don't read minds when I do it.
    Apr 25 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    Look you are just making stuff up.

    When you invest a billion dollars, you get to make it back over time... that's the way capital investment works.. you are making an incorrect and childish argument. You are so wrong its not worth arguing about it.

    Between Verizon, ATT, Time Warner and Comcast it is much MORE than $100 billion. These networks have been building up since the early 1990's when Comcast started offering internet in Sarasota and Baltimore. With no promise of any return by the way.

    Just look at the cash flow statements of the companies. If you are too lazy or uninformed that's on you. I know my facts. You don't, that's on you.

    Netflix does not add efficiency, they add a middle man... they rent video, then they charge you to watch it. They add a profit margin. That profit is the inefficiency ... You just don't understand because you like the idea of $8 bucks for video and who wouldn't...if Netflix had to provide your broadband they would charge you exactly the way Comcast does

    I get your drift, you don't like companies making money...we are just puppets..companies screw people...i'm a fool... blah blah blah...keep spouting nothing..
    Apr 25 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Likely To Break $400 This Week [View article]
    Its true...

    there is a line in the article..

    "But, for the time being, it looks like Mr. Market continues to think that Netflix's aggressive growth multiple is warranted."

    This is the fatal flaw.. the market KNOWS the growth multiple is not warranted. The institutions that drove this up know in advance that they will also be driving it down.

    I was at 100's of investor conferences over the year for my company. Institutions go to hear the presentations, ask questions and then afterwards they whisper to each other what they are buying and selling. That's whats happening here..

    so the appropriate info needs to be what are the largest shareholders doing right now? that's all you need to know... the subs will grow, the profits will be low, they will keep announcing programming deals and content deals... the question is if that stream of news trumps valuation.. up until 2 months ago, it was an easy question. Betting the earnings was a home run every time..

    the bears should not get complacent because its very possible the next leg is up if the institutions pump it to sell it again

    this is age old stock market behavior...its why technical analysis can work because investors are lemmings (and for big investors thats good for them because they mitigate the risk of getting killed..they'd rather not go first, they like to go second)
    Apr 25 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    It's not shocking at all to defend an ISP.
    You have to keep it factual, you have to understand how we got to this point.

    It's not millions, its billions.. $100's of billions. And much of that money was invested when the risk of this business working out was very high. These companies had vision. They took a risk and it paid off. That's how it works.

    They are not monopolies. They are a natural oligopoly. The costs to enter the space are so high that only a few companies can do it and make a profit.

    Oligopolies likely set higher prices than more competitive markets.
    This is basic stuff. You can get slower cheaper internet if you want, nobody is stopping you. Nobody is forcing you to buy faster internet service.

    Who is being suppressed?? Other than people wanting something for nothing?

    Since when is $3 a day outrageous to have an always on high speed internet connection?? Are you really taking the position that having a high speed broadband connection every day is not worth $3 to you?
    Apr 25 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    Why does it matter if Netflix is relevant? There is no way to get around the network. Netflix provides no real value that you can't otherwise enjoy.

    The ISP's provide value through the pipe into the home. Reasonable people can debate "fairness" but literally $100's of billions have been invested to make all this possible.

    All Netflix does is aggregate and mark it up. (or doesn't mark it up in which case their stock is worthless). Netflix wants something for nothing. Who can blame them??

    The most efficient way for this to happen is to get your Disney direct. You pay Disney. Disney pays Comcast for premium speed. No middle man..no Netflix bottleneck of renting Disney and then to you. And the way to get Disney direct is on a subscription that is managed and billed through the cable company..

    This will take a lot of bandwidth and why it is "unfair" for an ISP to get a return on its network? They should be incented to provide the fastest and most robust network possible.

    Enabling oligopolies (its just empty rhetoric to say they are monopolies) is the most efficient way when the costs to build the capacity is astronomical.

    Comcast and Verizon battle on price here all day and night.
    Apr 25 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Likely To Break $400 This Week [View article]
    You apparently left out the word not in the title..
    Kidding aside, I can understand the logic behind the prediction.
    You were playing by the playbook Netflix and its momo investors wrote over the last 2 years..

    However, the Amazon news was not expected.
    Although it doesn't change the world, it does highlight that Netflix is no longer guaranteed a steady stream of pops just by announcing sub growth... that story is told and baked in..

    Momentum works both ways and Netflix is on the wrong side right now.
    Apr 24 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Bears May Want To Hibernate [View article]
    I don't disagree completely. However, Netflix valuations rely on a case where they enjoy endless growth in subs and leverage to increase margins.
    Amazon will purposefully drive down margins.

    Netflix just raised the price going forward because if they don't they cannot make meaningful cash flows.

    Netflix. Less programming, now only $2 more per month!!

    The timing of Amazon's HBO deal is precious.
    Apr 23 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates on strong iPhone sales [View news story]
    well played sir!!!
    Apr 23 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates on strong iPhone sales [View news story]
    actually this exact same thing happened to ME!!
    Apr 23 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Bears May Want To Hibernate [View article]
    Bill,

    Why are you not more concerned with AMZN. They do not compete on profits. They have other business levers to generate value from streaming. Netflix has none.

    I believe its actually in AMZN"s interest to wildly overpay for some exclusives to set the bar very high for Netflix. Netflix does not have Starz, does not have HBO...what's next? AMZN can lock up anybody they want as the programming becomes available.
    Apr 23 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Arguments Against The Proposed Comcast And TWC Merger Aren't Valid [View article]
    I actually do live in the Philadelphia
    The service is great.

    As I grew up here, I couldn't afford Prism...it was $15.95(that's late 1970's money) a month for home games and bunch of 2nd tier movies including pornos..

    Guess what tho, I ended up working for the company that owned Prism for two summers in the finance group.

    Our margin was 80%...that's an 8 and a 0... we spent less than $3 a month for our programs.. It was a total ripoff. And we used to laugh at all the pathetic cable companies that got started in Philadelphia because there was a law passed that forced each system to have a minority shareholders...systems were even run by nuns...it was hilarious. The other cable company in town was Lenfest and they were run by a bunch of crooks.

    Today, for $200 a month I get every single game, I get HBO, Showtime, tons of high def channels, tons of free and paid on demand programs and superfast internet that I use for high speed gaming and streaming Netflix and amazon prime... I have a huge choice of free on demand stuff but I prefer the DVR which is now cloud based (about time) and I have in every room.. my dvr is set to record just about everything I like. It's effortless

    Plus Comcast has blanketed Philadelphia with free wifi (I can even pick it up in my house!) and so just about every I go I can log on the internet or watch HBO Go

    Earlier this week Comcast announced they've added subs again. That's because its a good service that offers good value for money.

    So whine away. The actual world is much bigger and more interesting than the boring idea that every company you don't like is evil and abusive.
    Apr 23 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Arguments Against The Proposed Comcast And TWC Merger Aren't Valid [View article]
    Comcast has not abused it's supposed power.

    Right now ALL subs impacted by this merger are either comcast or time warner subscribers. Right now Comcast could make any decision it wanted with regard to its network and it would not impact even one time warner sub. Comcast only gains market power against programmers that are ramping up their fees and holding cable subscribers hostage

    Comcasts networks are demonstrably better. Comcast is the only cable company growing subs. Whiners aside, customers find value in com casts service.

    If you think that anonymous comments on message boards are evidence in a congressional hearing I would beg you to make that submission. I am sure it would get a thorough and detailed hearing and it could very well tip the balance towards a new era of regulation.
    Apr 23 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Charter in talks to acquire 3M subscribers from Comcast [View news story]
    This is a big deal for Comcast investors if this is true. Knowing the folks at Charter this will be a tax deal and I'm guessing that's a spin off.

    Speculation that the Time Warner deal may crater with a leveraged cash bid from Charter is part of the reason its dead money right now.

    If the deal gets approved (highly likely), and Charter is buying these subs instead of trying to outbid Comcast, the stock is real opportunity. The Time Warner deal will pay for itself very quickly and should be accretive right out of the gate
    Apr 20 02:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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