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  • Google Fiber Takes Internet Access To The '90s - The 1890s [View article]
    please walk me through some of your numbers as to how this Theoretical $150 billion investment will make google more profitable..

    what do you estimate the ROIC of the project is? does your ROIC calculation include likely competitive impact of ISP's ramping up their network upgrades??
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Takes Internet Access To The '90s - The 1890s [View article]
    Scott Cleland?

    I had to look him up on Google. the irony.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Takes Internet Access To The '90s - The 1890s [View article]
    i have to point out again..

    they are not monopolies. they are natural oligopolies.

    there can be reasonable disagreement on how to manage that from a legal and gov't perspective... software operating systems are another example

    the economies of scale drive both innovation and profit..

    we are undeniably well served to NOT have 25 ISP'S to choose from and NOT have 25 software systems...As you know DOCSIS was a way for cable to work together to make a better internet...

    i hear the point that profits are "too high" but that's debatable from many angles...

    also which government subsidies numbering in $100's of billions are we talking about here?? access to municipal works??

    How is google not "welcomed"... the point being made here seems to be about skepticism that they have the capital and ability to profitably do it which leads to a conclusion that they have no intention of doing it..

    i know you are long cmcsa and least we agree on that..

    one more is playing a 20 year game, but so are the ISP's..
    google has literally no way of competing ...everywhere they go will get rebuilt well in advance of anything they can do...any innovation in networking can be they keep announcing rollouts and then in 5 years the dust will settle and speeds will be 10x higher most everywhere.. and google can quietly get what they really want which is internet so fast you can run their apps and programs as if they are on your computer with virtually no lag
    Apr 16, 2015. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Takes Internet Access To The '90s - The 1890s [View article]
    if google wants to grow they better not invest in digging trenches and laying pipes in a commodity business...

    of course google does want to grow.. and that's why Google Fiber is a bluff card that is going to have its intended effect of forcing the lower ROIC type entities to improve speeds..
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Takes Internet Access To The '90s - The 1890s [View article]
    Comcast invested over $160 billion over 20 yrs...i did a project in 2013 to look back at all the companies they bought and what their capital invested was post 1993... during that time period their stock was a horrible investment....

    Verizon spent over $20 billion in about 10 years for about 30% of com cast's footprint...

    com cast's number includes all the capex verizon's was just the specific cap ex allocated to FIOS

    What Dana calls a monopoly is actually a natural oligopoly... he calls it monopoly as a strawman political based argument...monopoly is bad...govt must step in to protect the consumer...blah blah...

    in fact, the barriers to entry are massive...the gov't has little incentive outside of controlling our lives to step in..the government is incompetent and is lean and mean... the government answers to no one...

    complaints of price gouging are hilarious... I pay less than $4 a day for my super fast broadband...i use it constantly for many things that add tremendous value to my has not been "down" for more than a couple minutes even once in the last 10 yrs(since i moved here..had trouble at first...they came and fixed trouble since)

    everything can always be better, hyperbole over the evil ISP's is just that..its blather and its empty...recent FCC rules will only cost consumers money and protect them boogeymen that don't exist...ISP's will have to hire hundreds of lawyers, fill out thousands of forms and have infinite meetings and all that will be a cost, and all that will flow back to consumers....and as dana says, the government is we will have to use our tax dollars to pay for the thousands of unaccountable government lawyers and bureaucrats and that will flow back to higher quite predictable

    google is no less evil if the gauge is making fact they are more evil.. they accuse others of things but in fact they are the ones watching us, they are the ones getting hammered by the EU, they are the ones that created a world where our lives became data to be bought and sold and stolen..
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Fiber Takes Internet Access To The '90s - The 1890s [View article]
    Gross margins are huge.. That's why invest in ISP's

    You can't fight math...unless google has a couple hundred billion to invest with no return then the ISP's will incrementally upgrade speeds.

    I generally agree with Dana's thesis but i believe cable will upgrade their plant everywhere in the intermediate term.. cable has a long history of being second to market and crushing it.

    I guess some people here find maximizing profits unethical. I don't. It's the nature of the beast. Frankly, it was Comcast and other cable companies that realized the high capacity of their networks had value and invested $100s of billions since the 90's.... Hate'em all you want, you are totally missing the truth of the situation
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IHD: A Tough Sell Based On Performance [View article]
    i am one of the unhappy investors here. I used this and EMD as my emerging markets basket (luckily a small part of my portfolio) and its been a ticket to the bottom.

    I'm typically buy/hold and building up dividends for retirement
    Long term China is a good play in my mind along with India so i'm actually ok with this fund being big into China

    One double whammy here is that some the emerging market funds are heavy into oil and gas

    Diversification is important and the effect of owning this so far has been to suffer a slight decrease in capital if you count the dividends. I've owned it for 18 months and luckily i've invested the dividends in other things. Its a shame i'd be better off sitting on the cash the last 2 years.
    Apr 8, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Best To Short Or Avoid Comcast [View article]

    so a run rate of $3+bb a year is going to what if they are going to spend $140 bb....

    investors are already balking at the high capex, and already expecting a dividend...and mgmt has signaled that the recent capex is not going to be sustained...

    google's future investment would need to be astronomical...

    you ignored my most salient point which is that you fundamentally do not understand comcast's cash flow generating power or their broadband business. its not just going to grow, its low hanging fruit..they are going to speed it up and charge more..even with google in the picture ..

    also, are you aware verizon took more than 10 years to build out less than 30% of the country with FIOS? who the heck shorts a stock for something that might happen in 10 years?

    pls get a better understanding of your facts
    Apr 8, 2015. 01:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Best To Short Or Avoid Comcast [View article]
    This article must come from opposite world. The real world story is literally the opposite of the article.

    Almost all of Comcast's "high speed" service is lower tiered...their average revenue per broadband is under $50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!... Comcast's revenue per broadband sub will rise. There is still lots of runway to grow with many millions of DSL subs and constant growth in broadband demand.

    Also, Google will never spend the money to build all of that out.
    There are no economics behind it all. Internet companies are used to being "allowed" by investors to spend whatever they want to grow..
    but $140 billion is beyond the pale and will never ever happen.

    Comcast is destroyed for their customer service. They have 25 + million customers on a 24/7, 7 day a week network that must work perfectly at all times..
    surely they can always do better, but that's the nut of the issue...its brutal for them...btw i have had comcast out 3x in 10 years....they have solved the problem every time...i've called them multiple times and yes i wait for 5 minutes, but they solve it every time or send somebody out

    google has no customer service..have you ever called them with a problem?

    their core competency is not customer facing and never will be, its too expensive and it will hurt their pristine brand

    Over time Google will build out a number of markets, it will take a very long time to build out a meaningful footprint and at that point the terrible economics will force them to increase price... $99 a month perhaps?? and they will have achieved their actual objective which is to force Comcast's hand, and comcast will charge the same or they will bundle it with tv...

    Comcast has been doing this for 40 years... by "this" i mean sitting back and pulling the trigger on major initiatives when the time is right. Investors know they are about as savvy as any mgmt team around..they have a fortress balance sheet, a huge stock buyback which will increase and a nice dividend..

    shorting this stock borders on idiotic...dont buy it if you don't like it, but short it?? there are lots better ideas out there..

    The whole concept of shorting a stock because in 5-10 years something bad might happen is also silly in my opinion.
    Apr 7, 2015. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast planning 2-gigabit fiber-to-the-home for Atlanta [View news story]
    well comcast will be passing almost 20 million homes in the next 12 months with 2GB.... google?? well they are announcing more tests in high end neighborhoods.

    its fiber to the home so the upload speeds should be much faster than the current setup with coax in the home
    Apr 3, 2015. 09:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Dividend Delusion [View article]
    How do you buy preferreds as a retail investor?

    Is there a specific resource (without a full service broker) or trading platform that is used for this.
    Mar 16, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast beats on revenue as cable sales grow 6% [View news story]
    It costs money to add subs.. and they run the company for EBITDA...they do not manage earnings...they added more customers than they expected.

    also advertising was weak and that's the most unpredictable income stream they had...

    it was nice revenue beat, they UPPED the buyback...that's a wow at $58 a share...

    if you think about it what comcast did the last 10 years was brilliant...they consolidated the cable industry, they bought a huge programming company and issued tons of stock...which they bought back in huge chunks at $15 -$55 per share!! and they are buying more... they leveraged their stock price basically

    pretty brilliant..
    Feb 24, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Title II Net Neutrality Ruling Causes Carrier Stocks To Pop [View article]
    Well said. It's amazing how misunderstood this whole issue has become.
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: The Soap Opera Doesn't Change This Special Situation Play [View article]
    I worked with bankers my entire corporate life. I sold credit to dozens of big Wall Street banks. One word solves all. Fees.

    I have been involved in banking deals where we could not even get a going concern opinion from our accountants.
    All that happened was the banks made us pay a higher fee, they did their own credit analysis based on the unapproved financials and gave us 12 months to clear it all up... after a 6 month extension and another hefty fee, all was well....we sold the company a year later and the banks got a nice fee for that too..

    I'm not saying ARCP holds the cards. I am saying that they are an attractive company to bank.

    The proformas will be done with high and low cases representing knowable risks, and the banks will decide pricing and fees accordingly.

    Plus, there is potential M&A here, that is the holy grail of banking

    Whoever runs this company will have banking ties. The CFO and CEO will have lots of experience with lots of banks and they will have their own favored bankers. In fact, my bet is that banks will be a meaningful part of getting management in place. It all goes together.

    ..I believe speculative investors should not consider banking risk as a major part of their analysis..
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FCC pauses review of Comcast-Time Warner merger [View news story]
    The merger is a huge win for Comcast.

    It is highly likely to get approved but they will continue to negotiate over things like net neutrality, programming and divesting of some assets.

    Comcast has shown over and over again that it can buy underperforming assets and grow them profitably.

    If the merger is tanked for any reason, I would expect the stock to get hit.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment