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KISS_investor

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  • Revenues Prove That Cable TV Is Not Dead Yet [View article]
    Netflix is not a threat to cable

    Do you understand the "cable" business? I am sure you are aware for instance its the cables that pay the programmers for video and then mark it up for us?

    So in a world where Netflix makes those payments, and people watch online, the cable co's will simply charge (more) for bandwidth, and reap margins in excess of 80%..their tv margins are in the 30%-40% range...

    Netflix's own growth will cause it to confront the elephant in the room(programming costs). Netflix customer proposition will stay strong, but programmers themselves will increasingly go over the top of the tv and stream around Netflix.

    As streaming proliferates, Netflix will do just fine. So will cable.

    Nice try with the blockbuster reference, but its a total fail. Its almost like you are channeling the opposite game What you are saying is that fundamentally wrong..

    Blockbuster infrastructure was bricks and mortar, they had high expenses and they took the risk on buying up product in advance to rent it out. They took the risk of investing in real estate in advance of revenues.
    It turned out it was lower cost to distribute video in other ways. The model failed because they were not the low cost provider.

    Cable infrastructure is the network, it is a sunk cost of literally $100's of billions...to compete with them, you must spend that money. It's the opposite of Blockbuster. The cost to compete is prohibitive.

    Why do you give Google a free pass on logic and financial reality? What makes you think Google would be good at managing construction crews(especially unions)? Google will never ever scale out a network. It is too expensive and would take 50 years. Verizon built out 18mm homes in 20 years
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revenues Prove That Cable TV Is Not Dead Yet [View article]
    That's correct

    The reason rolling out fiber is difficult and slow is because its difficult and slow, and EXPENSIVE...incredibly so...

    It's only economically viable in small areas. And when I say viable I mean it in the context of not losing too much money. Verizon found this out with FIOS.. they ended up with a marginally profitable network that has little or no advantage over current cable offerings..it is really important to understand that to accomplish this, Verizon redlined their buildout and ignored areas that were not good for them demographically...

    I don't believe the google spin. I don't believe their offerings are even close to profitable and the only reason investors are not freaking out is because the buildout is so small..

    Finally, with Comcast continuing to expand, Google will be forced to compete directly with Comcast as opposed to picking off vulnerable areas if they want to really matter in this space..
    Oct 19, 2014. 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast's Share Price Will Gain From Bright Future [View article]
    The CMCSA shares are voting shares and are much more liquid.
    Sep 15, 2014. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internet companies battle for net neutrality [View news story]
    wait a second...

    so the companies that actually control the content that we see on their service are manipulating the content we see to convince us that the big bad ISP's are going to have to much control over the content and speed of what we see?

    ummm...

    Al Gore was the keynote speaker at the NCTA convention many years ago..
    Sep 10, 2014. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Mistakes And Investment Solutions [View article]
    I retire in 5 years.

    I am not a financial planner but I am a financial analyst and budgeting is by far the most important thing you can do..

    the other thing people tend to underestimate is taxes and health care

    My goal is $2.5mm by 60 (5 yrs)..generate $80-90k pretax income.. based on my budget I would have to deplete less than 2% per year of assets and possibly $0(depends on health care)... I could cut back travel and i'm budgeting $20k a year for health care which is too high but you never know if you get sick....house is paid for

    I do not include social security in any budget.. that is gravy and I will wait as long as possible to get that

    what do you think of muni bond funds that generate 5-7% tax free?
    Sep 4, 2014. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Invest In Comcast [View article]
    Time Warner Cable and Time Warner are two different companies..

    Comcast is waiting for approval on the Time Warner Cable acquisition
    It is likely but not certain.

    Time Warner is a media company that may or may not be bought by somebody like Disney...
    Aug 4, 2014. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Invest In Comcast [View article]
    I believe its a long term buy and hold.

    The balance sheet is solid. The growth is there, especially in high speed data. They are quietly building a huge business telecom company which will get spun out someday and unlock value. They are well diversified in the media landscape.

    Their cable product is improving markedly. X1 is the real deal. If you haven't used it, you don't know what you are talking about.

    For every "I'm PO'd at Comcast" post, there are a thousand customers that have no issues... I live in New Jersey and I can't remember the last time my internet had an issue. I had an issue with a tv upstairs that kept dropping service and they offered me an appointment in 4 days but the next morning they called and said time opened up and came over on a moments notice. They said my signal was intermittently low and so they rewired my whole house for free and reversed the extra outlet fee for that month.

    It's interesting that people assume that the next internet provider coming to town will have perfect reliability and perfect service. Those folks will be using the same ditches, the same types of equiptment, and most importantly the same contractors Comcast uses to build(or they will have to use 2nd tier contractors not locked up by Comcast or ATT/Verizon...... then they will have their own customer service reps...and once they scale out from tiny launches I predict they will have more problems as they learn the ropes of running high speed data to a huge number of customers..

    Hey, sorry if you had a rough go with them...I haven't, and my area seems to have very little issue with them, and Comcast has been a three year double for me. I expect it will at least match the SP500 over the next three years and I will enjoy the dependable and predictable growth.
    Jul 31, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures gain behind Apple/IBM deal [View news story]
    My prediction

    We will see a new headline from him

    IBM deal hides apple's desperation
    Or perhaps

    IBM deal is result of Apple admitting they have lost the battle in consumer market
    Jul 16, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Is A Capable Competitor [View article]
    One thing to keep in mind is that the internet margins are much higher than TV margins. It will be interesting to see if tv watching continues to drift towards more internet usage. Another is that they grow through acquisitions and also are enjoying incredible growth in this business services. Their business service offering is growing much faster than the rest of the market and the sky is the limit

    The stock was $15 4 years ago. I don't think it's being held back. It's consistently growing

    One more thing. It's a very safe grower. Cash flow growth is predictable and changes to cash flow for better or worse will happen incrementally
    Jul 15, 2014. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    Enjoy your broad selection of crappy movies

    http://bit.ly/1qeF1sL

    On the other hand, I do agree if you love a movie or tv series..own it.

    And buy a couple bluray players too because they will be gone in 10 years
    May 7, 2014. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Comcast / TWC Merger Is Good For Netflix's Business [View article]
    Innovate in what area?
    Be specific.

    Are you arguing that Comcast's capital investments and its shareholders should be required to subsidize others, or is it just wanting something for nothing...

    Should the network just be confiscated through regulation?
    ...i'd like to confiscate your house so I can do some innovation in it if that's the case...

    Name one instance where its even suspected that Comcast blocked an "innovative" idea by its network
    May 1, 2014. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    More and more its clear that NFLX is screwed
    The something for nothing crowd is going to get nothing.

    Hulu just laid out its very aggressive plan which includes lots of freebies...they are doing their own content and they have lots more money and backing than Netflix...they are behind today but not for long..

    The idea that somehow Netflix has a moral imperative to use over a third of the nations streaming capacity without paying for it is not going to win the day..

    Although contributions have improved, they are still cash flow starved and must raise their prices at the exact time when their competitors are improving service and working on their own innovative approaches that all include lots of other revenue streams..there are huge holes in the Netflix library and those holes will get bigger not smaller

    Finally, its clear that the institutions are bailing. I've felt all along its a matter of time and no one should be surprised at how quickly and quietly its happening...
    Apr 30, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    Google's core competency is fiber broadband?? I don't think even they would say that.

    Broadband becoming slower?? where exactly?? not in my neighborhood.

    Read up on DOCSIS 3.1. No doubt legacy infrastructure leads ISP's to pursue other upgrade paths. Upgrades takes time. Next year ISP speeds will explode.

    You are naïve and misinformed.

    Google fiber (if it keeps growing) is going to take 10+ years to scale out and have meaningful penetration. Even then Google is unlikely to pass the number of homes passed by Comcast. And what's more, I have no doubt they will only go to the most lucrative high paying areas(which is what Verizon did until the local pols figured it out...once the pols told Verizon they had to build everywhere or nowhere, it became nowhere..its economically unfeasible to build everywhere)

    You are being unrealistic and you are misstating the actual physical and financial reality of what it takes to build a robust broadband infrastructure.

    The physical and financial reality is that as the specs evolve the ISP's will have all the speed you could even need and want, and it will be no different than speeds claimed by Google fiber.

    Comcast is growing a very competitive and high quality business services network as well. they are leveraging their infrastructure in ways google can only dream of right now.

    I don't think we are talking about taxpayers.. How do taxpayers subsidize anyone in the media broadband world?
    Apr 29, 2014. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    I am buying puts.

    I'm an honest person..I made a horrible call on the way up and bought some puts that exploded.. however, I was on this bubble and still hold a couple puts that expire later in the year that I got well over $400.

    I don't see any positive catalyst for NFLX right now. If you are long fand have unrealized gains to play with I get that you may hang in there if you believe the bull case, but you are really fighting the market which is rotating out of momentum 'story' stocks right now.
    Apr 29, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Latest Thoughts On The FCC's Statements And The Netflix/Comcast Dispute [View article]
    See this is false and empty logic..

    of course someone else would have... Comcast and Verizon did..

    what is outdated exactly?
    don't you have fast broadband??

    Have you ever heard of DOCSIS 3.1 which will be available at year end or early 2015?

    Netflix is much more benevolent at $400 a share than $200 a share..
    once they layer in adverts and more prices increases so they can actually make a meaningful profit what will you say?

    you can't get around it by whining...no Comcast would mean no Netflix..its irrelevant if was two different companies...if Netflix is so brilliant why didn't they invest a couple hundred billion to build out a network so they could stream?
    Apr 28, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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