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  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities  [View article]
    For those few ragged longs still left in this story, I'd offer that at these prices you'll have an option on possible upside. But the primary purpose of my post is......So Springer, how's that "new era" working out for everybody.

    Paul Byrne's claim to fame is massive cap-ex real estate projects for the sloppiest cash-flow culture on earth (mid-east oil). Having this guy take over for Harris after bouncing through several other jobs is not exactly a "new era." Harris Kupperman, or more importantly his investors, were badly burned investing in high cap-ex mining plays in the past, so this is business as usual. I'd think someone as sharp as Harris would have learned that spending other people's money isn't always a solution to long term sustainable business growth. Then again, altruism and sustainability is certainly not the central mantra of modern investing. Springer you're kind of shameless leading people into this story with your drumbeat of the positive spin.

    At some point in this seemingly bottomless drop the longs will hold a well-priced option. China has chosen to make statements regarding the quality of the coal they purchase and perhaps that will help Mongolia, but it may hurt them and I'm not sure how it will play out. Just know that the as the price falls on this stock, the opportunity for common stockholders gets closer to the opportunity afforded the sharks that founded this outfit. If you're gonna swim with sharks be certain to swim as a peer, and not as the remora represented by scribblers like Jon Springer or Bill Fleckenstein.
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should P&C Insurers Be Afraid Of Climate Change?  [View article]
    Speculation is quite present, and exists in the form of premium pricing. Of course the insurance industry has never found itself on the wrong side of the pricing game. Not to mention the moral hazard in the form of Fed forcing all sectors to seek yield.
    Oct 1, 2014. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. condensate oil export requests put on hold for now  [View news story]
    I'm a Ducks Unlimited greenie, not Greenpeace. I used to shoot my moniker in the western Brooks range.

    Who implied the tar sands were evil? They're greasy and nasty and stupid, and a perfect way for Canada to show that's its willing to "shit in its own mess kit." I just don't want to see America sell our light stuff to the Japs then purchase heavy junk from the Canooks. Let's keep and refine what we've got.

    The Obama haters here should acknowledge that there's a reason we have an export ban, and it was a Republican president who done it.
    Jul 30, 2014. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. condensate oil export requests put on hold for now  [View news story]
    Ummm, I'd guess refining is the first step to adding value. Obviously we need refinery capacity to proceed alongside extractive capacity. Yes I know, they're difficult to build, but there is your first source of employment.

    If you can't process it, then its stranded and you've simply got to cap it and save it. Makes a nice savings account since the stuff doesn't go bad.
    Jul 29, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. condensate oil export requests put on hold for now  [View news story]
    Of course any sitting politician wants to do those things, so the good Dr. Pee is purposely aggravating the commentary.

    Why sell raw materials that come at great environmental cost, and is a strategic resource to boot? Because you protect jobs and the environment by adding value here, at home, before you sell it. The jobs and the margins come with the processing, not by having a couple of employees rip the raw material out of the ground and sell it in bulk as a commodity. I thought this argument was settled when we decided to stop pulping U.S. old growth forests and selling the raw product to Asia.

    Let the Arabs sell their cheap and easy oil to Israel or Japan. If we're gonna split tight rock to get an expensive light condensate we should at least turn it into something with high value-added before we sell it overseas. Doing otherwise is bad business and bad policy.
    Jul 29, 2014. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review Of 'Risky Business' - A Report From Bloomberg  [View article]
    I'd agree with you on the elitist front if it was just Bloomberg and Paulson, but I'd bet the guy who's idea this was actually cares about his kids and his legacy.

    Nobody here should bother to take the bait regarding climate volatility and what is normal. We've known since the first paper was published in 1897 that CO2 traps heat, and we sure make a lot of CO2. The oil companies finally acknowledged it in the 1950's too, so I'd say that arguments regarding the vector of change are certainly dead.

    It'd be nice to be able to put numbers to the derivative of CO2 heat entrapment, which is what this tries to do. Yeah, they may screw the little guy in the end but its better to know.
    Jun 30, 2014. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review Of 'Risky Business' - A Report From Bloomberg  [View article]
    Reports like this are indeed a very positive step toward a more sustainable future, in that the target audience is policy makers who have the power to make substantial progress against the status quo.

    An assumption of a gradual transition from business as usual carbon intensive infrastructure is made because that is exactly what is going to happen. Trillions in existing infrastructure will not be scrapped overnight, and small scale distributed solar, while very promising as a model, is insignificant in the near-term time frame. This report is a technical roadmap using backwards looking data to show industry and public policy leaders where we are headed, not where we might be headed if we should change our behavior tomorrow.

    With the recent closure of Zurich Insurance' U.S. climate office, it is apparent that voices which inform the risk landscape are in short supply. Policy makers need reports like 'Risky Business' so that future incentives can point in the direction which will foster the widespread adoption of true alternatives to today's carbon intensive status quo. As we sit today, with lots of politically charged confusion regarding climate change, and a dearth of quantitative data on risk, no policy maker is willing to risk their careers to attempt meaningful change.
    Jun 28, 2014. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For BP, the legal hassles never end  [View news story]
    I can't remember. Did BP and their pensioners ever pay the American taxpayer back for Operation Ajax and the repatriation of all your assets in Iran?

    Been quite a shake-down.
    Feb 14, 2014. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debit Cards Introduced In Myanmar  [View instapost]
    Yeah!!!!! Advancing so fast that one might think its a fraud, or at least unsustainable.

    We have an emerging markets cheerleading squad right here on SA. John and Jon, you guys get letter sweaters. GO TEAM.
    Oct 29, 2012. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities  [View article]
    Nice plug. I rest my case.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities  [View article]
    My six year grudge? As we discussed privately, and at length, I was solicited as recently as 2 years ago to be part of Harris' traveling circus. Due to damages suffered in the past I declined.

    Why did I really walk away? How about telling readers what it is exactly that you are insinuating. I told you why.

    Good luck with your new 'job.' I get the feeling that you won't upset the new normal in journalism one bit.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities  [View article]
    Jon you're awfully quick and awfully sharp to call into doubt every claim I make, and your tone now makes me doubt my initial impression of you as an impartial journalist.

    My comments stand as a counterpoint to all those on this site whose work is in some way colored by their financial or career aspirations. With regard to your points:

    -Polomny: Newsletter writer for payment, past or present

    -Chris Tell: Meet and Greet organizer for payment ($7500 isn't for a Mongolian sun tan. How much is the Fiji trip?)

    -Epstein: Former industry insider and regional paid consultant

    -Fleckenstein: Personal friend of CEO, Director, paid newsletter writer. As a former hedge fund manager was sued by clients for trade misallocation between personal accounts and client accounts.

    Jon you can feel free to criticize what I say here, but your frantic defense is a bit pathetic when it is clear that a countervailing perspective is valuable here. Additionally by running my claims past Harris you run the risk like the errand boy to a shark. Perhaps you should read Jack Abramoff or Lawrence Lessig on the subtle ways in which conflicts of interest corrupts debate.
    Sep 23, 2012. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities  [View article]
    Funny, I come on here with hard numbers and get zero "likes" while the author says numbers are minimally important and gets 4 "likes." Is this Yahoo finance or a serious forum for investing ideas and information?

    If the author's comment is to be taken at face value, then what he means here is that an investment in this paper is simply a bet on a twist of the greater fool theory. You're betting on monetary policy in the 1st world gaining significant inflationary traction this late into a global inflationary bubble, and you're betting that someone will come along and take derivative paper off your hands that you are acquiring here at a punishing multiple of the value of the underlying. That's fine if you want to do that but I'd suggest that a "small chip" is all that you put into it, and do so with your eyes wide open.

    I'd also suggest that potential investors to this stock consider the number of people commenting and writing on this site who are selling something related to the market and in particular Mongolia. Chris Tell sells a very expensive advisory service ($7500?) for people who want to get into placements in Mongolia, John Polomny sells a newsletter about frontier markets, Peter Epstein appears to have working in these markets as a fee-based consultant. I can tell you from personal experience that Harris Kupperman has a history of using newsletter writers (ie. Bill Fleckenstein) to promote stocks. Temper your excitement with these facts, and if you can afford to go to Mongolia then I'd suggest doing your own due diligence without these interpretive lenses seeing for you before investing any significant funds.
    Sep 23, 2012. 09:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolian Growth Group: A Pick And Shovel But Not For Commodities  [View article]
    Alan-

    Here are some rough numbers: For every square meter of land this company buys for $2000, you pay $5000 to participate. The $2k is being paid to sweep offers and find land that otherwise might not be for sale, and in a market where very recently $800 or $1000/M2 might be considered a high price. The manager of this outfit was badly burned in illiquid mining stocks in 2008, was lectured by one of the most prominent hedge fund managers in the world about liquidity and leverage, and has gone about side-stepping accreditation requirements to sell highly illiquid products through the public markets to the general investing public.
    Aug 31, 2012. 11:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CMS Coverage Big Positive For Cytomedix  [View article]
    Kenny, what makes you think an analyst can explain price movements?

    An analyst has a job - to help you understock the underlying company's financial prospects. If those prospects translate into bullish or bearish price movements in the public realm then good for you, depending upon which side of the market you are betting. Analysts are the worst possible people to ask to explain why a stock has moved a certain way.

    I'm a trader, not an analyst, and the proper genre of person to ask. You can certainly take my answer for what it is worth, which is exactly 2x as valuable as the answer of an analyst: The stock sold off because people misread the press report, as it was meant to misread by the Public Relations people who wrote it. People thought that this company's product was approved, when in reality it was only conditionally approved. When combined with the natural tendency of markets to "buy the rumor, sell the news" this led to a huge sell-off (ie, people were buying the rumor that the product was approved).

    Now if you have even a scintilla of expectation that this product will actually be approved by Medicare then you should buy the shit out of it (or the foreskin out of it), as all of the risk of failure is now priced in thanks to the misunderstanding by the trading community (except for actual failure which will probably take this thing back to 0.50/share) due to their mis-reading of the news.
    Jul 9, 2012. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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