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  • Glu Mobile (GLUU) A Short Into Earnings? [View instapost]
    Thanks, I was indeed missing something. But then the PPS in Brandon Osborn's scenario is actually $8.22 / share...
    Jul 29 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glu Mobile (GLUU) A Short Into Earnings? [View instapost]
    Appreciate the comment, Brandon. Was actually hoping to get both our arguments in the same place, tough to debate on ST where your post gets strung out into 10+ tweets just to convey a single thought; So I'm glad you commented. I can definitely see the LT bull scenario. As I said, GLUU has proven (I think) that they aren't just a one hit wonder, that they know how to grind out revenue through multiple games/genres, so at some point (2015?) I see the revenue getting to $250m+/$300m+. But I really don't see 2014 revenue hitting that $250 figure.

    Just one other minor quibble: $750 mkt cap = 9.22/share.

    $750m / 81.32m = 9.22.

    Unless I'm completely missing something, I'm not sure where you got your $10.51/share from $750 market cap. Unless you're assuming a large buyback into that calculation ;)
    Jul 29 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Sentiment To Fade (ZNGA Trade Review) [View instapost]
    I repsonded above. My fundamental opinion is not strong at all on ZNGA. I have no idea what is going on at that company. What i do know is that they have a lot of cash and have been burning through it with losses and in general not growing a company that's been priced for growth.

    My trade was purly based on market fundamentals. Supply and Demand and too many people on one side of the trade. My guess is it will trade higher than 4.5 at some point, but I can't get long for that as I don't have a reason yet. I had a reason to get short, so I got short. But only for a fade (not for a long term short).
    Dec 11 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Sentiment To Fade (ZNGA Trade Review) [View instapost]
    I highly doubt ZNGA will ever get back to it's IPO highest levels. Unless something big and game changing comes out like online poker legislation. But ZNGA has already mentioned that they aren't interested in pursuing that.

    What I do know, is that if something big and game changing does come out, something that will send it up to new all time highs. There will be plenty of time to get in and make 100-200%.

    But that time isn't yet.
    Dec 11 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackberry (BBRY) Long Term Trade Plan [View instapost]
    I wouldn't play it. I have no idea what volatility would look like. Unless I have a distinct advantage going into a trade, I don't take the trade.
    Jul 4 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Won't Buy Cirrus Logic [View article]
    Nice article. I happen to be long CRUS. I always like reading theses that go against my position. You make very good arguments.

    I do think that AAPL buying CRUS is still a possibility (albeit a very remote one), but that's not the reason I'm long. I don't even think the possibility has been mentioned at AAPL and I think it's not even close to entering their mind, because as you said, "They have no reason to."

    I think you bring up the main risk to CRUS's business model in your article. Their main customer does more than 60% of their revenue. They (we-as an investor) are basically at the mercy of AAPL and that is never a fun place to be when running a business because it gives you no bargaining power.
    Apr 19 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment