Skjellifetti

Is a Deficit-Neutral Stimulus Possible?

Keep pushing Brad. Some of us are using your arguments to actively lobby our Senators and Reps to enact this kind of plan. The response has been pretty good.

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

The old formulas were based on linear approximations of non-linear phenomena. We simply don't consume the same basket of goods over time and measures of inflation, etc. have to reflect that.

On Nov 06 02:40 PM JeffDB wrote:

> So how exactly does Shadow Stats get things wrong? From their page explaining some of the issues they have with the official government figures, they don't mention sampling errors, or math errors etc. Their contention is that the government, over a number of different administrations has deliberately revamped the formulas themselves to make the numbers look better. Do you dispute this? If so, on what basis? Do you have any hard evidence to back up your contention?

Wall Street: Dumb as It Ever Was

I completely agree. The "I read it on shadowstats so its gotta be true" crowd is getting tiresome.

On Nov 06 10:20 AM American in Paris wrote:

> Shadow Statistics is a bunch of rubbish. I have a background in statistics and am intimately acquainted with how the government samples populations to to form estimates. It's quite solid.

> Shadow Statistics is just one notch above the Conspiracy Theorists.
> Just one short step ....

The DJIA's Dangerous Indexing Philosophy

The Fine Print: As Registered Investment Advisors ...

And you just now figured this out?

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

On Oct 11 12:06 PM Albertarocks wrote:

> But now for the first time in literally centuries, hegemony is being transferred to a country that is clearly and undoubtedly going to emerge as the leader of the world for the next few centuries.

Yawn. That is exactly what was being said about Japan in the 1980s. Look where they are now. Give it 20 years and we'll be saying the same thing about India.

Doesn't Rogers have a conflict of interest yammering about the virtues of commodities all the time given that he owns one of the indexes? I don't disagree that commodities belong in a diversified portfolio, but only at about the 5% level. Just like everything else, commodities have a tendency to regularly crash and burn and its usually just when you need their diversification benefits the most.

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 2

John Williams of shadowstats.com notes that official US deficit statistics do NOT include net present value of unfunded social security OR Medicare expenses.

John Williams does not include the productivity gains that will greatly improve our ability to pay for these items.

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

Buying gold is not investing. Investing involves buying new capital goods that can create new products. Buying gold is equivalent to putting your wealth under your mattress.


On Jun 05 12:24 AM Danny Furman wrote:

> Does anyone here realize that Asians don't "waste" their money on
> stocks? Gold is how they invest, save, measure wealth.... I don't
> like shiny things but I appreciate the value of something as rare
> and treasured as gold.

Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

I would go further and say that any data before August 15, 1971 is meaningless when attempting to draw conclusions about the long-term value of the gold/stock price ratio.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

On Jun 02 10:24 AM TonyCinTX wrote:

> Why use the MEDIAN stock to gold ratio, especially the median over
> 106 years?
>
> How about telling us when was the last time the gold to stock ratio
> actually WAS 5.4, or less than that?
>
> World finances changed fundamentally after WW II, and there is no
> reason on EARTH to include any financial data from before 1945 in
> any analysis of any kind, at least not without more justification
> than just because you say so, or just because it gives you the number
> you want. Essentially you are telling people that data from 1903,
> before World War One, is an essential part of this analysis; because
> it certainly contributes to which ratio will be the median.
>
> Let's take a look at the last 64 years, since 1945, and see what
> the median ratio is there. Or perhaps we will look at the linear
> trend, or robust regression. I see no reason to believe the median
> ratio is the best predictor (or even a good predictor) of where we
> should be, when the world is changing.
>
> For example, would anybody believe us if we used IBM's median revenue
> since inception to predict its revenue next year? I think not. Why
> then should we believe the ratio of DJIA to Gold should be a constant?

Remember, Investors: This Too Shall Pass

TANSTAAFL:

PFE has a dividend payout ratio that approaches 1 and a PEG ratio of 7.33. LIPITOR will run out of patent protection soon and it isn't clear what will replace it. Obama's health care reforms will have to deal with drug costs, likely resulting in lower profits for the drug makers, since those costs are one of the big drivers of health care inflation.

The Great Consumer Crash of 2009

The author needs to learn the difference between average and median and when it is appropriate to use one vs the other. When Bill Gates builds a house, the average house price looks way out of reach.

For an alternative take on CC debt, see:

articles.moneycentral....

Delusions of Debt

Please explain to me how you can meaningfully compare the purchasing power of a 1914 dollar with a 2008 dollar when 90% of the things that are sold in the market today did not exist in 1914.

IIRC, one of the Rothschild's died in the 1800s from an infection that we would cure today with $4.00 worth of antibiotics. All of his gold couldn't save him. I'll happily take today's goods and prices over the goods and prices of 1914 any day!

Bonds: No Inflation Threat in Sight

The argument that rates are low and thus don't reflect inflation because there has been a "flight to safety" seems fishy. If you expect your "safe" investment to be eaten up by inflation, then it isn't really "safe", is it?

Ben Bernanke: What Kind of Bird Is This?

What is the MZW in your graph?

Passive Investing Wisdom from Taylor Larimore

Neither George Soros nor Julian Robertson have been able to time the markets both successfully and consistently. They have done better than most, but they have also had blowups that cost their funds billions.

1990 All Over Again?

Tom Lindmark --

Good point. That is why it pays to read the footnotes:

Please note breaks in data: Data prior to 2003-01-01 include adjustment, extended, and seasonal credit. Data from 2003-01-01 to 2007-11-01 include primary, secondary, and seasonal credit. Data from 2007-12-01 to 2008-02-01 include primary, secondary, seasonal, and term auction credit. Data from 2008-03-01 forward include primary, secondary, seasonal credit, primary dealer credit facility, other credit extensions, and term auction credit.

This is a graph that has apples up until it has apples and oranges.