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crimsonbey

crimsonbey
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  • Inventure Foods: Offering A Good Entry Point [View article]
    your ebitda for this year considering the impact they already are under is a bit overexpectational. First two quarters are likely to be below the midpoint of what you need and I do not see them making it up later on.

    They talked about needing some capital to bridge their needs which will cost, my sense tells me they will try to use it to consolidate facilities so that packing/production in georgia is on the same location even though they are saying they are focused on ramping up. It would be unwise to not do this longer term.

    Debt probably goes over a 100mil, and the impact from recall should lower expectations for the year. I don't see second quarter recovery at all.
    May 23, 2015. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation Have Some Amortizing To Do? [View article]
    if customers lost the option to refi, their only other option is default... unless they could pay the loan back...

    your looking at flows from an asset and forgetting the terminal value and the principal involved.

    the adjustment takes much longer than the spread impact short term, by the time it occurs the spread they earn would be much smaller.
    you are forgetting that the repos they use to finance all that leverage and other short term lending sources would reprice much faster than the loans they hold, yes some of mreits are hedged but those only partially offset the impact.

    the worst possible scenario is if short term rates go to 3 or so but the loan reset is marginal while the spread is cut severely
    May 21, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triumph Bancorp: Macro Headwinds Most Likely Created Opportunity [View article]
    should drop some more next earnings when the quarter lacks the gain on purchase. Building out the bank implies they will spend money, ergo lower returns on capital and no dividends. Time-frame wise a long term process.

    If they go into M&A like you suggest I expect dilution to be far greater than if they build out. From the standpoint of earnings leverage they probably won't have any meaningful growth until they grow critical mass.

    The asset management efforts from the stand point of all these aspects is a diversionary effort, particularly as it relates to CLOs which they will have to remove in a few years if capital standards for banks tighten which they have in that regard, on last transcript call q4. It would have been far better if they had an asset management arm with closed/open ended funds or something service oriented but packaging CLOs, can't grow that fast it seems.
    May 21, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post's Acquisitions Leave A Sour Taste [View article]
    your ignoring the margins they were earning on the business, even with the egg production they simply bought size and revenue but the profits were minimal.

    long term they will not escape the amount of debt they took and the margins that business brings even without problems.
    May 21, 2015. 05:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation Have Some Amortizing To Do? [View article]
    cpr - constant prepayment rate

    What I find more interesting is the impact the rates will have on their fund vis a vis margin spread. Most hedges and swaps for mreits do not cover their exposure especially in a contractionary spread environment. Their repricing lags their costs in my view and they have to take hits before they could benefit from expanding spreads. What everyone overlooks is not just the amount of cost flow they should experience dragging their margins down but how hard it would be to reposition into an adverse environment as rates go up but assets that they buy are in limited supply.

    Everyone seems to be skipping the step where their book gets hit and they accrete less cash-flow via maturities with the ability to deploy said cash becomes tougher. My sense tells me that this is not about whom hedges better but whom takes the total cost of these dynamics and minimizes them and that is not necessarily the best hedged mreit.

    The other factor is the amount of leverage they are carrying into an adverse rate environment and my thoughts revolve more what happens to the default rates if their CPR goes down and those customers whom had the option to refi, no longer have it?
    May 21, 2015. 05:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trillium Therapeutics Is An Overvalued Biotech Stock [View article]
    never underestimate the power of hope or 'potential'.

    what i find odd is that people ignore that there has to be positive as well as negative catalysts to drive your view onto the forefront.

    if people think this company craters simply because they want it they have quiet a bit of disappointment without anything to propel that.
    May 20, 2015. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deteriorating Capital Structure And Lack Of Catalysts Make AEterna Zentaris A Sell [View article]
    perhaps they are aiming for 10cents a share so that they could do 100-to-1 reverse get to $10 dollars and then raise money and have only 7-8 million shares out?

    the amount of uncertainty all this dilution presents will make all those warrants worthless, someone has to want what you have for it to be worth more and if nobody wants it, then it is worthless.
    May 19, 2015. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An E&P Impairment Corollary: Does The Relative Absence Of Impairments For Successful Efforts Companies Matter? [View article]
    thanks for the article very informative on various nuances
    May 19, 2015. 06:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas - Inventories Rising Along With Price [View article]
    Theoretically future gas sold is diminishing since companies have or project decline in production. You could almost say that the future prices are guided by current selling of future expected production or lack there of.
    May 18, 2015. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arctic Oil - The Cost Is Just Too High [View article]
    The cost of oil is individual to every field in question, depending on development and other factors. What you did was use the presentation from aggregate averages per region. If you could produce 100k a day or 1million a day from a field the costs even in the Arctic would be different depending not just on the environment but geology and many other factors oil type etc...
    May 18, 2015. 07:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Lexington Realty's 7.5% Yield Too Good To Be True? [View article]
    perhaps the company is experiencing an industrial contraction expectation, in addition to the rate hike possibility.

    the gain for giving back the property is ephemeral because it seems to simply be the realization of an impairment taken earlier being reversed, they possibly recognized the loss long ago but now reversed some of it. in some sense the worrisome aspect is the talk about rationalizing their assets, and their push to lower office proportion of the properties as well as multi-tenant.
    i think them going to non core business in multi-tenant may be the problem when they try to get out of that piece of their business.
    May 18, 2015. 06:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post's Acquisitions Leave A Sour Taste [View article]
    Their integration thus far has been "working out", but I don't know for how much longer that will be the case. Perhaps they may need to take a charge on their goodwill sooner or later in relation to the egg business.
    May 17, 2015. 07:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Watch For An FDA Warning Letter [View article]
    1)NOL isn't carried over to an acquirer fully there are limitations... it plays almost no role for the buying company.

    2)possible but you have to have it be adopted by the market there first
    3)maybe

    your also ignoring the costs they are incurring in rolling out the product and the r&d in relation to the phase 3/4 they have ongoing to prove iron absorption.

    they have one product the volatility based on its' successes and failures are magnified upon the company
    May 16, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals: Watch For An FDA Warning Letter [View article]
    very good points always good to read what you write.

    The problem with gov't intervention as you lay it out is that you are essentially assuming that it happens. Rightly or wrongly how, when, why and in what manner if at all is a very big and important aspect as well. Granted your case seems valid, provided they act in the way you ascribe.

    Theoretically they could write a negative affirmative message which would say it doesn't not ascribe to improve absorption even though it was proved to do so in clinical testing. Which may make the whole point moot and be enough for the actors in question.
    May 14, 2015. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: 3 Takeaways From Q1 Earnings [View article]
    I am going to refine what my thoughts to the following.

    People are buying an 8 billion market cap company that has around 9 billion in debt and it brings in around ~800 mil a year (or 200mil a quarter) in cash.
    Ergo, 800/17000 cash over entity value.

    There are plenty of reits that have less leverage and more cash flow than this one, without the problems. Even if everything works out even if they resume the dividend and everything is great the amount of growth, returns, or possible optimization is miniscule. Hence the risk is not worth the reward at all.
    May 14, 2015. 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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