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crimsonbey

crimsonbey
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  • Nektar Fortifies Its Position In Advance Of The Rescheduled FDA Panel On OIC [View article]
    When is the RGDO phase results interrim/fin approximately at least. Would have been a good mention.
    Apr 20 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons To Be Bullish On Exelixis In The Near Term [View article]
    The timing was awful to put it mildly. Peak biotech index and general news timeline emptiness in retrospect was bound to have any negative aspects be completely overrepresented in expectation summary.

    cash burn at ~50 mil a quarter does feel 'painful' when it is set against any immediate cash flow offsets even if moderate success is achieved in any direction.
    Apr 12 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Takes Step 1, Of A Million, To Right Its Ship [View article]
    they do not have eventually...

    what they need is complementary drugs to defray the costs of operations and increase cash-flow. if at least one operator of this company had any sense they would have been looking for a bolt-on add-on drug from day 1 just in case to add value to the company even if they were going to sell it.
    Apr 7 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Takes Step 1, Of A Million, To Right Its Ship [View article]
    considering market reaction and the overall traction before they had sales rep cuts it seems like a moot point. Granted it improves everything going forward without a doubt.

    My overall sense is it would have been better if they brought on a complementary product to mitigate costs and they could have but didn't a while ago.
    Apr 2 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Direct-To-Consumer Television Advertising Marks The Tipping Point For Belviq Sales [View article]
    I am curious as to your thoughts on their manufacturing capital guidance, and was wondering if they get a mark-up on production of Belviq. If their manufacturing facility is going to be spent ~10 mil on what is it that will make it provide some sort of return I wonder. Manufacturing revenue is interesting.

    Going from 8.15 to 16k scripts(for 2014) per week I get total sales of 72mil(630k scripts * 115 per) in rev and about 22.8(31.5%) for arena share. going from about ~2% growth W on W to ~1%.

    Perhaps global sales will make it more interesting.
    Mar 28 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Undervalued Titan In The Gulf [View article]
    What about permitting are there headwinds?

    The write-offs if you consider the cold-stacking may continue. I wonder if fleet age vis a vis replacement rate in relation to deployment ability and day rate is the aspect that everyone is missing.

    Refinancing carries costs I am wondering why they are churning it for half a point of benefit yes the duration is longer but why not do either more of a change or a different positioning.
    Mar 27 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales Up - Pacing Well For 2014 [View instapost]
    When do you think they break-even and how long would it take for the hypertension p2 study.

    It seems there is some fear if the sales growth slows Eisai writes-off belviq or tries to renegotiate. Granted the probability is very low I think it is pressing on the price.

    My sense is the lack of catalysts other than sales growth is also adding weakness.
    Mar 22 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Targacept: Traveling The Rocky Road To Redemption [View article]
    You have no statistics, nothing, not even a link to prior or ongoing studies.

    I like that they have cash though. Going to investigate a little bit first.

    Just going to say something before I do. I very much dislike articles that start off the way you did here for biotechs at least. The reason is that your estimates and probabilities versus phase progression and mine could be vastly different, yet you didn't even put/link a single data point in relation to the studies they have. How many patients when does it end or begin or projected to give data nothing.
    Mar 7 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 High Yielding REITs With Positive Catalysts [View article]
    http://bit.ly/1gO6h8B

    1402 rent per 152 units (2.13 mil lets say they get another .12 for the retail my guess retail is included in the rent number and it is 2.13 total)
    ~2.25/32.7 (~6.9 cap rate for transaction this is being very generous)

    Rent is at the very top of local range. If they issue units for equity in the property the dilution is about 1.3 million shares at current price ~8.60.
    Perhaps its' not that bad but I don't like it. My sense is if they bought the Oklahoma portfolio first and this after there would be less risk.
    Mar 3 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 High Yielding REITs With Positive Catalysts [View article]
    the problem is the rent presumption they have @6 cap is 1260 per unit which is where you can get a house not a unit.

    They are buying a unit for the price(215k per) of a house(~250k) I assume the avg unit is 800sft but a house is double that size. So comparatively they would be paying twice the price psf with the same rent assumption it does not add up.

    What happens when rent stays flat and the interest rate goes up 1% when they need to refinance?
    Mar 3 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 High Yielding REITs With Positive Catalysts [View article]
    Seems 30-50% higher than it should be for apartments in that area.
    Someone is getting an awfully good deal on the other side.

    They aren't a person buying a house and yet they are paying close to the median list price for apartment building units.

    It looks awfully like their "manager" RAS is picking something that won't benefit shareholders. Because if those rents are at top range of the area and for houses. In my view this would be a dollar per share in loss later on npv basis. Just crap deal really if it gets executed.
    [looked through zillow at the area]
    Mar 2 08:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 High Yielding REITs With Positive Catalysts [View article]
    The Berkshire Square property on their press release.
    http://bit.ly/NkkeCz
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    "This week we also expect to go under contract on a property in Creve Coeur, Missouri, a suburb in St Louis. The property is a mid-rise apartment community with 152-apartment units and 10,000 square feet of retail space. We are buying the property for $32.7 million and assuming $21 million of existing debt that had nine years remaining at a 3.96% interest rate. The asset will provide in excess of a 10% cash-on-cash return and we expect to close in the middle of March."
    from transcript...

    Think about it for a second 215k per unit. (32.7/152)
    This isn't New York or California. It just doesn't look right.
    Mar 2 03:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 High Yielding REITs With Positive Catalysts [View article]
    The only thing about IRT that I do not like are the fees RAS gets. Which are pretty high. Some very minor risk execution wise and perhaps liquidity/equity for the deal pipeline.

    I do not understand why one of their properties is so far below the others via rent though ~500 vs ~700.

    It is hard for me to figure out why the St. Louis property was purchased it seems extremely odd. Flow vs total return on it and npv do not make sense at all. It almost feels wrong that they bought it. Price per unit and cap rate vis a vis debt seem so wrong.
    Mar 2 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Bell Tolls For The Bears - Buy The Whole Capital Structure Up [View article]
    I am not a bear or a bull on this company.

    What you had is the strongest quarter seasonally.
    A company that is sheding assets and struggling to pay its' pensions.

    So they fired whomever they could fire and the pension assets benefited from the stock market boom. Yet, the trend of the top line is not showing progress. Next quarter we get closer to reality both in terms of what is happening if the top line stabilizes or not.

    I think right now the optimism will propel it forward from the lows simply due to good news and people trying to get into a 'recovery' play.
    If margins improvements stay it may very well be a recovery though.
    Feb 27 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail Opportunity Investment Corp: This Small Cap REIT Packs A Punch [View article]
    I think the proven management angle is good. People underestimate the importance of management impact. Would have been nicer if you provided some background on how his last company got sold, did it have multiple bidders or did i try to raise its' own price.

    Shares outstanding increased considerably and will increase further since they have ~6 million of warrants left. It will stabilize around 80+ mil shares out probably.

    Its' a good company and if they buy less this year I would be more hopeful. Sometimes a counter intuitive action is better than simply expanding leverage and buying into adverse cap rate environment. Them mentioning ~5 cap rates in the market implies a few things, like lots of bidders, exuberance in the ability to raise future rents with a complete disconnect to economic underlying reality, and financing considerably lower to still have financial leverage to improve total return.
    Them being aware of these things is a plus.

    The problem I see with them is that I am not getting a deal on the company. They are priced so well to me it seems a waste of time really. The only reason I follow them is that if they ever have a collapse in the REIT market they would be a good player for a recovery play.
    Feb 26 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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