Rockwell Steadies Itself For A Phase III Run-Up [View article]
Never underestimate the power of crappy management to not do the things that improve shareholder returns.
Short interest just got smaller by them having a 60% dilution. 26 to 40+ mil or so? The other side of the short position here you could speculate was the underwriters expecting the dilutions, and shorted ahead of the offering and are covered afterwards.
Rockwell Steadies Itself For A Phase III Run-Up [View article]
Interesting company.
Lots of catalysts, I find their margins to be so low on the products they do sell, that even if they get the injection approved it would seem to be marginal.
My guess is their R&D spending after trials will come down materially and cash burn becomes more sustainable, otherwise they are just trying to do too much with too little.
Their gross profit went down by over -21% (1.63 to 1.28 mil) on not being able to absorb or pass through material costs. Perhaps they will improve them with the new DaVita agrement. The dilution makes them pricy by 4 times annual sales, yes I know catalysts are coming but they are semi-generic.
I am tempted though it seems like a good play. A possible generic injection and a new drug, with the contract extention/expansion. The catalysts are there the downside is not that bad especially with the raise. Hopefully it goes down more though. If they could go profitable ex-R&D it would be more interesting.
Vascepa Data Should Make Amarin Longs Worried [View article]
Quoth they only have to hit 60-70k scripts this quarter if they go to 100k+ it would be a very very good quarter. 22k scripts is 5 mil roughly 66k would be 15 mil (I am not taking into account deferrals or rebates).
They reported 11768 in the graph on their press release for April. Your chart above makes it unlikely. 4 weeks and 3 days. You have about 2600+2900+1200(for 2 days mon/tues if we take 3k), they would have had 2.5k per week in beginning. The curve seems out of wack then.
I doubt anything is perfectly accurate there could be either under-reporting or sales we do not see to larger prescribers.
Lots of companies hinge on one product, crocs come to mind.
You might be right until they report 2nd quarter. I am inclined to believe though that they go above 60k scripts when they do.
P.S. I am not holding it currently either long or short
Acura Pharmaceuticals Is Grossly Undervalued And Poised For Rapid Growth [View article]
The problem is presenting abuse deterrant formulations as a free ride on your health without impact. Which is not true. You don't have to be a doctor to realize that the more toxicity from ingredients exists the harder your body works to break it down and you have impact on various organs.
Acura Pharmaceuticals Is Grossly Undervalued And Poised For Rapid Growth [View article]
I have mentioned this thus far and just to reiterate.
1) acetaminophen is becoming less liked by people who like keeping their livers functioning
2) the directive for abuse prevention/resistance does not outweigh liver risk
3)acura is having trouble selling its product not because of retailer adoption but because retailers know doctors won't prescribe it for a) its' worse for their clientele because most of them aren't addicts b) its more expensive than generics that are healthier relatively [even if you get addicted to them]...
The reason it dropped after the spike is because nobody cares about abuse resistance except the FDA and nanny state. Consumers rather not have liver failiure, ergo you rather take a drug that gives pain relief or not take one at ALL!!! rather than drop dead after a few years because of 'abuse deterrents'
Utica Results Next Catalyst For Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
Very nice rebound from the lows Mike, I must admit.
Like I said before closing date was a catalyst for sure. I was wrong about it drifting lower too much of a value imbedded in it so the rebound happened.
I still think it will drop after they report 1st quarter though.
I remember playing with numbers at around 250k scripts a quarter they get to ~60 mil revenue which to me is more or less break-even. (I expect lots of costs to drop in both sales&marketing and r&d and around 67% gross margin).
The problem in my mind is the growth curve. It needs to be very steep. They need to triple their scripts next quarter double them the quarter after and grow them by half the quarter after that. Ergo 70k to 140k to 210k (striking distance or so at which point the break-even gets baked in).
I find it likely that somewhere along the line confidence in it wavers. My guess next quarter is going to be good because hitting 60k in scripts won't be as difficult.
Teva: An Ideal Long-Term Pharma Stock [View article]
A few billion to a few hundred million (lets say 400) is a big drop. Very very big.
My perspective is that none of it is baked in, the market is euphoric just because Teva seems like it is stable doesn't mean if the macro environment was more adverse these things would be ignored as the perception is now. The problem is that both the drugs expiring and the liabilities mounting may come due at a very short period in the future both hitting top and bottom lines. This will not be pretty. I rather pick it up after the fallout.
Teva: An Ideal Long-Term Pharma Stock [View article]
there is no such thing as a gradual to generic impact... that is why they are sued for 2+ billion by Pfizer for 3-4 years of pre-patent infringement. Protonix lost 60% in the first year that Teva's generic came on market.
People ignore the debt load like it does not exist. 12 billion is a lot.
Adobe Goes 'Cloud Only': (Grisly) Film At 11 [View article]
I think this was an accounting decision with no perspective on how it impacts people using the product. Backlash in any form will be manageable because the company management believes their product is indispensable at any price which is generally a mistake. So what they did was put a strangle hold on how a user can operate.
Fed up people solve problems one way or another and this action simple makes blow-back much more certain in the future. The sad reality is that CS is a tool and it is only as good as the user using it what the company thinks is that this tool is irreplaceable. Hahahaha.
Teva: An Ideal Long-Term Pharma Stock [View article]
Pfizer(protonix sales) liability is aroind 2+ billion and profalol liability is going to be less pricey but still bite.
Basically they will have to pay a few billion one way or another.
I agree Teva is going to be good long term I just think they have to drop considerably. I really dislike the debt load and in adverse conditions thing will be really bad for it. If I had to pick between it and Abbot and both got cheaper by 20-30% I would go with Abbot because there is no debt overhang and more diverse revenue.
Looking For Opportunity - 5 Biotechs That Crashed [View article]
Good article I like the way you look at the losses instead of potential gains unlike most people. Helps bring clarity and risk into the whole perspective of things.
Rockwell Steadies Itself For A Phase III Run-Up [View article]
Short interest just got smaller by them having a 60% dilution. 26 to 40+ mil or so?
The other side of the short position here you could speculate was the underwriters expecting the dilutions, and shorted ahead of the offering and are covered afterwards.
Undervaluation Of Vical's Full Pipeline Allows A Cheap Bet On Cancer Trial [View article]
Everyone keeps mentioning adverse effects, but you can drink water and have no adverse affects at all, doesn't mean it helps you in that situation.
RR<18%=fail from what I am reading thus far.
Rockwell Steadies Itself For A Phase III Run-Up [View article]
Lots of catalysts, I find their margins to be so low on the products they do sell, that even if they get the injection approved it would seem to be marginal.
My guess is their R&D spending after trials will come down materially and cash burn becomes more sustainable, otherwise they are just trying to do too much with too little.
Their gross profit went down by over -21% (1.63 to 1.28 mil) on not being able to absorb or pass through material costs. Perhaps they will improve them with the new DaVita agrement. The dilution makes them pricy by 4 times annual sales, yes I know catalysts are coming but they are semi-generic.
I am tempted though it seems like a good play. A possible generic injection and a new drug, with the contract extention/expansion. The catalysts are there the downside is not that bad especially with the raise. Hopefully it goes down more though. If they could go profitable ex-R&D it would be more interesting.
Vascepa Data Should Make Amarin Longs Worried [View article]
Vascepa Data Should Make Amarin Longs Worried [View article]
22k scripts is 5 mil roughly 66k would be 15 mil (I am not taking into account deferrals or rebates).
They reported 11768 in the graph on their press release for April. Your chart above makes it unlikely. 4 weeks and 3 days. You have about 2600+2900+1200(for 2 days mon/tues if we take 3k), they would have had 2.5k per week in beginning. The curve seems out of wack then.
I doubt anything is perfectly accurate there could be either under-reporting or sales we do not see to larger prescribers.
Lots of companies hinge on one product, crocs come to mind.
You might be right until they report 2nd quarter. I am inclined to believe though that they go above 60k scripts when they do.
P.S. I am not holding it currently either long or short
Acura Pharmaceuticals Is Grossly Undervalued And Poised For Rapid Growth [View article]
Acura Pharmaceuticals Is Grossly Undervalued And Poised For Rapid Growth [View article]
1) acetaminophen is becoming less liked by people who like keeping their livers functioning
2) the directive for abuse prevention/resistance does not outweigh liver risk
3)acura is having trouble selling its product not because of retailer adoption but because retailers know doctors won't prescribe it for a) its' worse for their clientele because most of them aren't addicts
b) its more expensive than generics that are healthier relatively [even if you get addicted to them]...
http://1.usa.gov/Ydx1oN;D=FDA-2011-N-0021-0001
http://1.usa.gov/16EWznA
The reason it dropped after the spike is because nobody cares about abuse resistance except the FDA and nanny state.
Consumers rather not have liver failiure, ergo you rather take a drug that gives pain relief or not take one at ALL!!! rather than drop dead after a few years because of 'abuse deterrents'
Undervaluation Of Vical's Full Pipeline Allows A Cheap Bet On Cancer Trial [View article]
perhaps i am wrong.
Utica Results Next Catalyst For Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
Like I said before closing date was a catalyst for sure. I was wrong about it drifting lower too much of a value imbedded in it so the rebound happened.
I still think it will drop after they report 1st quarter though.
Amarin Reports Solid Vascepa TRx Growth, Stock Holds Its Ground [View article]
The problem in my mind is the growth curve. It needs to be very steep. They need to triple their scripts next quarter double them the quarter after and grow them by half the quarter after that. Ergo 70k to 140k to 210k (striking distance or so at which point the break-even gets baked in).
I find it likely that somewhere along the line confidence in it wavers. My guess next quarter is going to be good because hitting 60k in scripts won't be as difficult.
Teva: An Ideal Long-Term Pharma Stock [View article]
My perspective is that none of it is baked in, the market is euphoric just because Teva seems like it is stable doesn't mean if the macro environment was more adverse these things would be ignored as the perception is now. The problem is that both the drugs expiring and the liabilities mounting may come due at a very short period in the future both hitting top and bottom lines. This will not be pretty. I rather pick it up after the fallout.
Teva: An Ideal Long-Term Pharma Stock [View article]
People ignore the debt load like it does not exist. 12 billion is a lot.
Adobe Goes 'Cloud Only': (Grisly) Film At 11 [View article]
Fed up people solve problems one way or another and this action simple makes blow-back much more certain in the future. The sad reality is that CS is a tool and it is only as good as the user using it what the company thinks is that this tool is irreplaceable. Hahahaha.
Teva: An Ideal Long-Term Pharma Stock [View article]
Basically they will have to pay a few billion one way or another.
I agree Teva is going to be good long term I just think they have to drop considerably. I really dislike the debt load and in adverse conditions thing will be really bad for it. If I had to pick between it and Abbot and both got cheaper by 20-30% I would go with Abbot because there is no debt overhang and more diverse revenue.
Looking For Opportunity - 5 Biotechs That Crashed [View article]