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crimsonbey

crimsonbey
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  • Update For Regional Bank Basket Strategy As Of 4/20/15 [View article]
    was wondering about your commission costs, regarding positions and trading and whom you use in that regard broker wise.

    do you look at tangible book capital more or earnings power when you select your picks for longer term. also when do you take your losses very curious in that regard
    Apr 26, 2015. 02:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill, North Atlantic Drilling, And Rosneft - A Long-Term View Of Perspectives In Russia [View article]
    I thought about it and my sense tells me that even if sanctions are lifted by the end of the year North Atlantic would still need a contract by mid year. It would be good if they could get work for the drill-ship in the Castberg field that is being developed, chances are low but its' possible.

    it is probably more likely that West Venture gets an extension in the optimal scenario but the Navigator would be a very big value driver if it were to get work. I did look up the Sverdrup field someone mentioned before but don't think its' likely to give North work.

    http://bit.ly/1QsD6vv
    Also notice Norway also is considering supporting the development because of economic issues.
    http://bit.ly/1QsD72t

    Anyways to get back to financials. They need around 454 mil for the Q4 payment for the West Rigel yard payment. Either they need financing for around 300+ mil or a contract that brings in cash with the difference to be financed.
    Apr 25, 2015. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline - A Misunderstood Entity With Enormous Upside [View article]
    perhaps you are right...


    but demand for ships would go down if crude supplied could not be offloaded due to militancy factors. oil would spike but the amount of tankers available would be larger if they can't fill up in places which would be war blocked essentially.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline - A Misunderstood Entity With Enormous Upside [View article]
    your kidding right? if 3 million barrels a day stops being picked up you have all that free capacity in the VLCCs and other ships that would have been utilized in that area shifting elsewhere. This would be both a drop in demand and increase in supply of tankers.

    sometimes political risk trumps all the economics you think you could get and that leverage you looked at going one way implodes the other.
    http://bit.ly/1Gft0s6
    for now its still quiet though.

    you have to realize that VLCCs can't go through Suez so there would be an instant capacity in that area. I assume Suezmax rates would strengthen but the overall push by drop in utilization would push both rates down, a lot. in my opinion
    Apr 21, 2015. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline - A Misunderstood Entity With Enormous Upside [View article]
    If Yemen becomes very hot and the straights are closed to shipping you will have a very very bad implosion for prices.

    If current ships that use it to fill up become empty, the force majeur impact will create a lot of supply in the market ship wise. Not only that but Iran will most likely be blamed.

    I do not see your upside if this happens.
    Political solutions have to cool things off. 3+ million barrels a day out of 40+ that is tanker shipped goes through the straight. The marginal impact would be very very painful.

    My guess is earnings have to lift the industry up a bit as well for interest to start showing.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline - A Misunderstood Entity With Enormous Upside [View article]
    your looking at from an odd angle, why would you buy into someone else's business that is controled by that someone...

    That 2x upside won't be generated to the FRO equity holders you might get 20% of that upside but not the majority since the majority of the value is not in FRO this is correct.

    you do not need majority control (51%) if you have contracts outlining a management relationship for the new ships and the likelihood of you taking out the relationships that feed the company elsewhere in case someone tried to buy it out from under you... your prism of reality clashes with what would you do if you had the other side of the table and a position of strength that even with 'at arms length' should be recognized... why should F12 shareholders give you the majority of the economic benefit if they bring 80% of that benefit to the table?...
    Apr 18, 2015. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline - A Misunderstood Entity With Enormous Upside [View article]
    I think that your event happened but the reaction is probably not what you expected. Ergo the bond was probably paid off and in my view the company will turn down.

    Generally if one looks at transactions done recently (genco buying baltic)(drys selling tankers to its' ceo) and some others the multiple implodes when the company that controls the entity essentially buys it out even lower than previously.

    The dividend aspect is there but I do not think they will do it. Ergo if you think that the company will be merged with someone else why would they boost its' price prior to doing that? This gets into the whole notion of whom benefits by what action.

    Imagine FRO buys F12 but in equity composition the new entity would essentially be owned by F12 equity holders and FRO shareholders while getting accretion would not get the equity gains compensatory for such an action...
    Apr 18, 2015. 07:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontline - A Misunderstood Entity With Enormous Upside [View article]
    wouldn't it make more sense to re-route earnings to buying the ships with options for 2015 coming up instead of dividends? or perhaps building the fleet more since it is getting dated
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surging Growth, Banc Of California Remains A Bargain [View article]
    add in the prefered, subordinated, and other things before you count that discount
    Apr 14, 2015. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosneft keeps options open for rig contract in Kara Sea [View news story]
    nadl is actually less leveraged than sdrl if one consideres ebitda...

    you would essentially be giving rigs up at below replacement costs with long term contracts and customers to a competitor...

    re-consolidation ergo buyout of minority shareholders makes more sense if they realize that they can't get the niche leverage via the minority sale transaction into Russian Arctic which seems to have been the plan. The way forward is to try to get contracts in the Norwegian shelf, the problem is that most projects that one looks at have been pushed back a year or two.
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis Entering Critical Six-Month Period [View article]
    I am going to reiterate what I said earlier. It is not worthwhile to take the risk-reward at this price. Sub 2 maybe above 2, for me it makes no sense. There is no justification for it at this point, yes the run-ups to event happen, but it is a bit far far away and if the it runs away so far to make risk-reward poor for a person taking the risk, why not just let it go?
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ally Financial Inc.: A Bond Market View [View article]
    For an individual it makes more sense to look at these aspects you mention from a relative value point of view and the probability that this investment pays off. The conclusion you reach is while interesting not conductive very much.

    The interesting aspect would be the sensativity of those bonds to both liquidity constraints (ergo when trades/volume(cumulative notional) decrease) how much would the spread increase and the probability of decline in their price under those scenarios.

    The other aspect that I think would also be good would be to explore collateral and industry millieu of the company and weather the sector it is in, is having a wind at its' back or structural problems, etc...
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Customers Bancorp The Best Pure-Play Regional Bank? [View article]
    some agreement on their growth prospects and their appreciation. It seems too fast and too high in some sense. Generally when growth like this occurs banks do raises to continue bolting on earning assets. Fairly similar to signatureny which is far larger but more or less kept on raising funds as it grew grew and grew.

    now for the negative aspects. The religare investment in india looks like a it was done poorly. From every angle of the transaction it could have been done at a lower price, better terms, and better outcomes. I assume they will get out of it but on the whole it was a waste of effort in my view. Theoretically they will need more capital before the end of the year and my guess is it may happen before they get their religare capital back. I do not see a strategy from a stand point of what kind of a company they want to build, other than growing assets and using footprint leverage where possible. They are niche focused in some sense but the problem is the return proposition for people holding their stock, will you ever get dividends? or are they going for the growth model for the next 10 years? what will their stabilized model look like?
    look at their leverage ratio on the 10k, it is more or less obvious they need to raise some capital.(page 44)
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Lessons From Ohr Pharma [View article]
    good thoughts as always, very enjoyable reading your point of view
    Mar 27, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Bancorp Should Have Buyers Deep In The Green At Q1 Reporting [View article]
    if you consider their avg loans of 1.5 and the impact of 294 from the acquisition their average increase of 254 is actually a decline ex-acquisition
    Their loan growth in 4q was around 10% ex-acquisition and if you consider the impact of decline of exposure than the buy they did was similarly exposed thus the decline in essence is the run-down on their book pay-backs.

    Tangible book is below around 9.80+... my expectations are very very very negative, the problem with this one is the earnings power is simply not there, they have no ability to earn their way out of any problems like a niche asset management business or something that differentiates them from others in similar space.

    Theoretically they should increase loan reserves as their non-current problems grow just in case...

    If you look at their non-interest income they are making money on selling guaranteed loans... what happens when those flows decline, end, impact their own bottom line? in some sense this is cannibalization of their own potential income from those loans... ergo they are driven it seems by necessity and not design.

    Allowance for loan losses in relation to their portfolio growth is the same if they increased it by a million or two it would wipe out earnings for a quarter or half them.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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