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  • LUKOIL's 9% Dividend Yield Intact For 2015 [View article]
    you are forgetting that risk connotations will have an impact not just for the firm building up capital it seems but if it will be required to clear more capital at home to park at CB dollar wise.

    if you expect salaries in rubles to remain the same after the devaluation you are quiet mistaken even short term (a year or two). also debt maturities would have helped current and for at least 2015.

    its an interesting company but not at this price.
    Dec 27, 2014. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect The Biotech Sell-Off To Continue Into 2015 [View article]
    What do you mean by cyclical? steel & capital goods?

    How would you reconcile if rates start going up? Wouldn't rates going up make Biotech more attractive since ex-ante expectations are tied to future instead of ex-post expectations in most other aspects along with capital investment. Ergo you first buy a refinery then based on that capital investment you make returns, while in bio-techs you first do R&D and then reap a future expansion of revenues all through the peak sales cycle, and you could even keep the long tail if you have a generic company like some of the majors.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coty - Remains A Buy Despite Sharp Run In Price [View article]
    Strong brands generally implies a brand that does >1$ billion in sales. Sometimes its >100$ mil if its' a niche product. Generally the competition here is for disposable dollars via advertising ex personal products.

    The company is benefiting from the upcycle in personal and the mistake is that in reality it is a very minor player in that field. So dollars won't recur once they cut some spend. In my view at least.
    Dec 26, 2014. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Preferreds: A Double Digit Tax Advantaged Income Stream With Upside [View article]
    The problem is that if it goes insolvent risk reward wise the bonds are better. Preferred will get wiped out along with common.

    It seems nobody is cognizant that if price of gas drops for a while below 3-ish this company has no cash flow. I think they need to suspend preferred to pay down the credit facility and the term-loan for the eureka hunter. That seems very likely in the future.
    Dec 24, 2014. 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold CEO eyes deal next year, foresees industry consolidation [View news story]
    I think even if they don't buy anyone they would need the funds to develop the Cote deposit if they gain approvals.
    Dec 24, 2014. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis' Partners File New Drug Application For Cobemetinib - Welcome News But Little Impact [View article]
    Like I said before there should be a salvo of catalysts firing over 2q start of q3. The waiting period up until that point is a catalyst in itself. Theoretically two more filings that will psychologically weigh very heavy on investors. I don't see it getting brighter until April to be honest that is the 90 day timeline for catalyst countdown. Granted they could happen earlier or later.

    I think the combo is not being valued at all properly. Accent is placed on RCC results with a very negative odds it seems. Which is a good thing.

    The key is the end of 2015 q3 and q4. IF they get approved in EU and US, Exel would begin to get royalties on Europe the problem is that they will be required to up the spend in US for their share of the rollout in the US.
    Lots of IFs and yet the borrowed funds keep ticking at high rates weighing down the company by that time even more.

    For me right now the NSCLC data is the interesting factor but its' not mature yet.

    fyi still no position.
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis' COMET-2 Failure And A Discussion Of Potential Future Cash Flow [View article]
    Besides company specific unknowns discussed here and markets relating to the drug one has to be cognizant of the market picture. Like I said before IBB should trend down for entry to become better. The other aspect is if rates turn up (without fed) but due to risk profile changing the NPV of the company changes along with that dynamic as well.

    If the aggregate perception in the market changes from 2 to 3 to 4 risk free rate or there is a larger spread between 2 for treasuries and 6 for business you will notice a very large macro push on the price dynamic. If you could get a 12-15% return on a ongoing business company buying its' debt wouldn't equity need 20-30%? or more if its' biotech or something more risky.
    Dec 15, 2014. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI Has Upside Ahead [View article]
    everyone defines cash-flow positive in their own little way... their three way hedges are going to bite them (at least that's what I think)

    I also think that them buying a company at the start of the year is what does them in, more or less. They bought at the top of the cycle even if we have a recovery next year. Most companies large ones divested their retail operations and bulked up on cash de-leveraging into the downcycle it seems. This little lack of forsight is telling on management.

    They also talked about trying to get 3-600 million "in the door" from asset rationalization. The problem is selling right now would still be overpriced from the asset point of view. I actually thought about their 2017 notes more than the stock, but I don't see it. Still lots of possibilities the wells they were working on were interesting if those are good some expansion could carry them through but unlikely I think.
    Dec 13, 2014. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy XXI Has Upside Ahead [View article]
    you do realize that their three way hedges are going to bring in a lot of losses right?
    Dec 13, 2014. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect WTI To Go Back To $100 [View article]
    I think it makes sense to have a "surprise" cut which would have a larger marginal impact.

    The other interesting aspect one has to consider is which fields will have un-remediated decline-rates. Ergo which will be too costly to do something with and decline faster due to non-intervention. This not only applies to Baken but globally. In some sense the Saudi non-cut-of-supply is focused on the marginal-declining (not marginal-expanding) producers.

    Its the countries & companies with tight financial resources that suffer most in a decline since they can't re-invest to uphold production and their marginal capital recovery is impacted by the fall in the marginal price. Baken producers do not fit this category because they are expanding production and capital resources have been expanded so by inertia their flow rates will go up for some time even after initial drop-offs.

    Its' Venezuela and Mexico that seem to be in that position.
    Dec 7, 2014. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis' COMET-2 Failure And A Discussion Of Potential Future Cash Flow [View article]
    Even if they cut R&D to half from 43 to 21.5, the interest costs and SG&A will still be reasonably fixed at what they were or ~9.9 & ~11 (~21)

    It is very unlikely for total cash burn to go below 40 mil in my view. Especially if you consider they need to still write off some of the restructuring. (page 8 of the 10-q). I could see R&D go to 25 or so and them going to around ~43 cash burn for Q4.
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis' COMET-2 Failure And A Discussion Of Potential Future Cash Flow [View article]
    Theoretically if Cobi/Zelboraf is approved in Europe by end of Q2 they could be getting revenue in Q3 royalty wise. The flip side is that if it's approved in U.S. by Q2 they would also have to spend for salesforce expansion. Net net the later is probably more expensive during that timeframe.

    What you do not know is if NSCLC results after publishing will allow them to get a partner for P3 or not, and we won't know those for a while... If they could get a partner with upfronts for it in Q1 and perhaps repay the 15% loan, the dynamics of the company both financial and potential estimate would change very dramatically.

    Right now the company is psychologically one big liability slowly submerging by overriding expenses. Some of this has to be removed through positive catalysts, some through steps by the company to show that it has best interests of shareholders at heart. But steps have to be taken...
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offshore Drillers: Is History A Guide? [View article]
    inflation adjusted (according to whom?) If we inflation adjust according to official stats then everyone has thousands in disposable income and we can all afford mansions.

    'Inflation adjusted' oil does not even pay for extracting "inflation adjusted" oil at that price.
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Expect WTI To Go Back To $100 [View article]
    Well I got that x is the number of days eventually. But thank you for explanation.

    Have you thought about lagging the data? You could then figure out the average time it takes to reach equilibrium with days of supply.
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis' COMET-2 Failure And A Discussion Of Potential Future Cash Flow [View article]
    I am thinking about sub-buck level. Their severance/restructuring costs will also influence cash burn in Q4 if you remember. I think total burn should get to around ~40-45 by Q1 next year.

    If Cobi gets filed this year with 6 months time frame it will have a catalyst around end of ~Q2 2015. 270 days from end of September for Cobi for MAA in Europe is around the ~Q2 2015.
    RCC read out is around Q2 2015.
    That is three catalysts.

    This is without the top-line of P2 NSCLC which has to get published sometimes in Q1 or Q2, and possible Exam niche data used to expand the MTC label into a niche market (RET M918T positive population).

    My problem is that the perception about the company discounts it so much psychologically that by inertia it should continue for a while. Irrational expectations have to exacerbate themselves in my view, and so far it has not happen because not only is there no reason for it, nor are there any results or even discounts for potential.
    Dec 4, 2014. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment