crimsonbey

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  • CYS Investments Offers 2 Cumulative Preferred Issues With 8% Dividends  [View article]
    Why buy a preferred on a leveraged financial? if the equity is yielding almost twice the amount?

    if something goes wrong both would be wiped out so what would be the point in having less volatility if that point ever arrives?
    Jan 31, 2016. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IAMGOLD: Update On Westwood Mine  [View article]
    when they report those hedges will look even worse since they actually pay the net I think.
    This will not be pretty. Unless gold jumps to 1100 or so they will be rowing against the current.

    overall their posture is not that bad, net cash debt but the operational drag on cash is a problem.
    Jan 23, 2016. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Puerto Rico's Updated Fiscal Plan Supports Federal Financial Control Board  [View article]
    The gov't in PR wants to control the process because it gets to redistribute gains and losses away from itself. Ergo protection of budgets that various people in that gov't have discretion over.

    Once oversight is established there will probably be massive layoffs and cutting of pension & benefit obligations.

    All of these legal issues are strands of defends that it is using to prevent re-organization that will strip away power over budgets, their allocation, and control.

    Would be interesting to know if their funding of pension & benefits can be clawed back if it is below in security of bonds they skipped payments upon since they aren't a state. They need to reduce debt load somehow and what they have been doing is not working the population is leaving.
    Jan 21, 2016. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pernix Therapeutics: $3.25 A Share Is Too Cheap  [View article]
    all reits are enjoying municipal and county government real estate tax rate hikes irrespective of what is happening.

    high yield bonds will not stabilize since nobody knows which sector is the looser and which one is the winner in the next maturity/refinance cycle.

    rebound could happen. i do wonder about catharsis on companies that won't make it.
    Jan 21, 2016. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street Is In 'Show Me The Money' Mode With Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.  [View article]
    your probably right didn't check my mistake.
    dilution already occurred. when they drop under 2 perhaps attractive since you would be buying a very large stakeholder's belief at a larger number but right now not so much.
    Jan 21, 2016. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Street Is In 'Show Me The Money' Mode With Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.  [View article]
    About ~2 quarters of cash are left at current burn rate if one considers Q4 being over.
    Curious when they would get to break-even actually. They had 60 sales reps on quarterly for q3 but 95 sales reps on presentation for jan11 so perhaps some costs will go up.

    Revised coverage you mention probably took effect this year so sales traction will still take time. Sales traction is the most important point at this point other than cash.

    I don't see them making it without selling rights in Europe for a good sum. The likelihood of this is not good in their position, even if they get payment from Tori that extends their horizon for q3 2016, it does not improve the chances for shareholders at large since the management prerogative would be to secure funding or dilute before a quarter or so they absolutely need it. Outright sale right now is possible. Why pay for rights in Europe if you can buy the whole company?
    Jan 21, 2016. 04:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Changed My Thinking About Trevena  [View article]
    it is an interesting company but too enthusiastic right now
    Jan 19, 2016. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE said to pick Boston for headquarters  [View news story]
    health insurance caps for employer contributions i think

    very big impact for CT if this happens, will imply moves by other big firms.
    Jan 14, 2016. 03:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Forum  [View instapost]
    Timelines are important at this point it is far more important to have a date set for the lawsuit resolution before 2017. At this point it would make sense for Sanofi to take some CVRs at market IF they thought there was any risk of adverse outcomes. However, doing that might increase that adverse outcome in a sense.
    Jan 3, 2016. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pernix Therapeutics: $3.25 A Share Is Too Cheap  [View article]
    if they hit 60, dilute and a quarter after they hit 45 or so it will be a very painful experience.

    Them hitting 60 means they would have ~10+ mil go out to paydown the note, their cash pile would go down, but the quarter after that would be with the background of imploding sales.

    zohydro dynamic after restrictions are removed is very large. The problem is if it jumps into 4th quarter during q1 they will have demand shock.

    You do not understand the impact of debt and their capital structure on how they have to perform and how it amplifies their ups and downs.
    If treximet sells really well they could have a capital shortage if it doesn't sell fast enough they have note overhang in 2018 and impairments long before that.
    Jan 3, 2016. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pernix Therapeutics: $3.25 A Share Is Too Cheap  [View article]
    its possible for them to do 60 but the quarter after there will be a drop...
    zohydro being unrestricted off the lists on january may incentivize stock up prior, some promotion could also push others into the 4th quarter.

    if they buy another product unless it fits very well with what they have they have major problems. i don't see it unless it is some sort of a shared promote with it being accretive without expenses.

    my guess on the note is that it was made specifically to incentivize it being paid off and it is very likely they couldn't get financing for it. its' seller financing. your looking at something that is fairly irrelevant in their case. my guess is they could refinance if it gets closer to 100 mil or so in balance.
    Jan 3, 2016. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pernix Therapeutics: $3.25 A Share Is Too Cheap  [View article]
    go to their presentation. They doubled their salesforce on Sep1 according to the presentation at least. page 5 & page 9. If it went from 24 to 27.4 mil for 1 month perhaps 33/35 for 3.

    If they go to 60 million in sales next quarter they will still get around -10 or so cash flow. If you consider the outflow of paydown for the note timeline until they NEED to break even is around two quarters or mid-year.
    Jan 3, 2016. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pernix Therapeutics: $3.25 A Share Is Too Cheap  [View article]
    Thoughts about debt which is around ~350 mil
    Intangibles are around ~358 mil (122 is for Zohydro)

    Once we see impairments for intangibles it will more or less imply not panning out of the cash flow anticipated rate of return in regards to their big bet. The problem of half of revenues in regards to that product being swept to pay the notes back is two fold. Their cash would probably decline and the likelihood of issuance increases. The milestone payment for ZX007 once approved is another factor, as is the payback/maturity of 10mil in 2016.

    Lots of positives if the company sees any growth, but any growth implies larger outflows on the back end as milestone payments to those they bought rights/licenses from.

    Debt wise the burden is very large imagine if they go to 30-40 mil cash with sweep overhang from the notes, it becomes apparent that would imply dilution. On September 1st they increased their salesforce, ergo 1 month of larger SGA is considered in their last quarterly. What would be the impact of that SGA for the full quarter? we will soon find out. Perhaps they go to 35mil SGA instead of 23 a normalized quarter?

    They need traction for every product they have. Needing traction and getting it is two different things.
    Jan 2, 2016. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maintaining Our Buy Rating And Price Target On Reeds, Inc.  [View article]
    you forget to think about growing pains of any company in this situation with this guy at least they know how to optimize properly. if you had someone else they would have had enough debt to sink them already ten times over. this guy at least knows how much it should cost to retool the plant and make it rational.

    true it wasn't done to the best possible way in the best possible timeline but the problem with executions would have been worse with someone with non engineering background.

    one could speculate if the sales disruptions due to shortage would be worth it on the back end if they splurged on equipment. i think it was cheaper to have shortages.
    Dec 30, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maintaining Our Buy Rating And Price Target On Reeds, Inc.  [View article]
    why not wait until production problems are resolved?
    credit problems are tougher to overcome?
    product is more established say 75-100 in sales?

    you have to look at it from the point of view of a large buyer.
    the buy has to make sense from time expense point of view. if it does not move the needle in regards to their overall strategy of growth or profitability.

    very possible for a contraction in multiples even as success appears. imagine them growing but the multiples contracting due to rates going up, capital being scarce, and general lack of appetite in the industry.
    Dec 28, 2015. 04:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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