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crimsonbey

crimsonbey
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  • Belviq Advertising Sees Major Shift [View article]
    I think if you look at advertising as a gradualistic marginal approach. Ergo if you have 100 flow rate it increases it by some rate and if you have 200 flow rate it increases it by some rate as well. Basically more expensive advertising should come later since it's impact will be higher as awareness improves.

    Market cap matters in the sense of proportionality to both possible attributional revenue and earnings power and that is why I don't think Arena is very enticing. Ergo at 100 mil run rate and 35 proportionality one wants a 300 market cap or at least mild to break-even on the cash.

    Also one has to be cognizant of seasonal factors more people will try something during winter than summer it seems but perhaps I am wrong no idea.
    Sep 12 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeterna Zentaris: A Risk Worth Taking [View article]
    The problem is that they will need cash in the next six months more or less. If you assume run rate goes up after approval and into the co-promote. Those 50 reps will boost costs quiet a bit. What they will also most likely need is another product that is complementary, and where they can earn more upon. I don't see it happening but it could.
    Sep 10 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Trends - A Realistic Look [View article]
    you are looking at companies whom suffered first before their script traction and the overall improvment in coverage amplified their sales, this is in addition to price increases. Arna is not in that position.

    you also fail to grasp the difference between controlling how the product rolls-out and being a junior partner . both hznp and qcor raised prices/script volume/insurance coverage and cumulatively the impact was very good (after 2-3 years of suffering first though)... go look at hznp chart and go through their quarterlies as they were loosing money every quarter until they finally broke even.

    16 months is a long time away you could have very different things happen.
    Sep 8 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Belviq Sales Trends - A Realistic Look [View article]
    I am not optimistic to be honest. My view is there is a cut-off ergo say it becomes mildly negative to cash-break-even at ~250 mil or ~21 mil to arena per quarter. Lets say you have roughly 6 quarters to get there at -30mil to -40mil per quarter in average run-rate {please bear in mind that as trials for other things start enrolling not only do costs go up but they stay up}, furthermore one has to be cognizant that as phases go up from 1-to-2-to-3so do costs per trial. Ergo under these assumptions one can see that the company needs capital perhaps later but still. Partnership with upfront payment for some of the programs which may not come until phase 2 is completed most likely.

    The overall aspect here is that if they got +100 million in capital or so, or had raised it at higher rates say earlier right now the company would be fine for at least two years until script rates gave it break-even. Because of this not being the case what you have is the discount taken into consideration because the later one raises capital the more costly it is, thus the equity is being discounted over and over again. It is a really interesting aspect to me viewing from the sidelines so to speak. Been following Arna for a bit but have no position. If they succeed in getting any capital or partner for other parts of the pipeline the equity should/may reprice.

    Still I do not see the returns good enough to justify going for it. What you have right now is essentially a ~billion dollar company that three years out may or may not earn lets say 30-50 per quarter at a ~500-600 revenue for belviq. Figuring share count at 240m shares lets say ~16(64 cents a share)6-10 dollars and lets say another 4-5 dollars for potential success of other venues. Would you risk 4 today for 10-15 in three years with a risk of them needing capital in the middle? or not getting to that run rate?

    Its a good question. For me if that end point was 30-40 dollars it would be worth it. But right now the reward is simply too low. You could easily be diluted by convertible to the tune of 30% and the revenue stabilizing at 400 or so which would make it go nowhere.

    Just my opinion really.
    Sep 6 12:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Exelixis COMET-1 Trial Fails: The Impact To My Bull Thesis [View article]
    why would they need to raise? explain, they have cash and debt
    Sep 3 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Exelixis COMET-1 Trial Fails: The Impact To My Bull Thesis [View article]
    they did the right thing. I think they tried their best it just didn't work out. This is a biotech the risk is very high and so is the reward can't have one without the other I think. Perhaps.
    Sep 2 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Exelixis COMET-1 Trial Fails: The Impact To My Bull Thesis [View article]
    I did that a couple of times it helps stay rational. There is ofcourse the other side of the coin ergo trying to go in for the psychological and the undervalued play. Ergo when everything could go wrong has, sometimes there is still value to look at and perhaps play.

    So far I simply too cash-debt and thus far it looks like a 0 unless you start assigning value to other assets. Than it gets a bit interesting.
    Sep 2 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocket Fuel Running Out Of Gas [View article]
    Growth at larger and larger losses is not what one wants to see.
    If you grow from 100 mil to 1000 mil while loosing twice as much have you really made progress? rhetorical question really.

    I think the company will still experience more turbulence to be mild. We still have no idea what the integration costs will be until they occur. Neither do you know if costs continue to rise faster than gross profit, ergo higher losses. What you also do not know is if the shareholders from the merger will hold the shares of combined company or have they already 'hedged' themselves. What that overhang will do if it is there and the overall impact on the float it will have.

    Lost of questions not that many answers...
    Aug 31 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Small Biotechs Worth Watching Over The Next 6 Months [View article]
    Conatus shifted the timeline of results of some of its' 2b trials from 2nd half of this year to next year. That is the reason it got shifted down. What I find odd is that not one mention on any of the companies as to the cash burn and cash on hand.
    Aug 26 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory: Going Once, Going Twice... Sold! [View article]
    There is so much possible with this company yet it was never really pushed to develop a consumer focus and kept as a franchise food provider. My guess is management change would be optimal with someone coming from outside and the optimal person would be someone whom had confectionery experience.
    Aug 19 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Photronics: A Long-Term Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Very interesting and informative article. Especially book-to-bill aspects and the p/s chart. The problem I have with the company is their convertible overhang basically. I also feel that in some sense the consolidation they have with the merger in Taiwan will make short term costs spike significantly. But on the whole you may be right.
    Aug 18 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USA Technologies Preferred Stock: Bet On A Buyout [View article]
    if anyone else joins the lawsuit and damages snowball you have no sale.

    This company at best is a glorified merchant servicer with modest value-add. It having "technology" as part of the name does not change this very simple fact. It grew by expanding customer base, the mistake it made was trying to push their view of the world on those whom could push back.

    You are ignoring common sense. If the suit is brought to bear through whatever agreement they had with that customer it means a) there is a case b) the attempt to negotiate failed c) it is very likely if they loose that customer will come after them for not just penalties via interest from the time of breach but probably for the litigation costs as well. You have to keep in mind that even a 30-50% probability of this coming true will make this company very close to worthless. (6.3 cash -4 line of credit)

    Distressed sales are never good. Preferred shareholders are still shareholders. Looking through the 10-q I have to lean towards the company being fairly worthless with a loss in court.
    Aug 18 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • USA Technologies Preferred Stock: Bet On A Buyout [View article]
    interesting really. either they survive and thrive and this pressure will create a good opportunity to get into the company or they get hurt fairly badly and limp perhaps terminally.

    they simply have not much of a growth aspect to them
    Aug 18 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Chapter In The Acorda Story Will Be A Page Turner [View article]
    hmm this is worrisome generally whenever you guys write an article, the company does not do "well" to put it mildly.

    But have been following Acorda for a while. The fear is that their earnings power from their main sales drug spurt out. The thing I dislike about the company is the convertible overhang but it is a minor aspect in my view.
    Overall they are a descent player but your not getting a deal in my perspective.
    Aug 16 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unrecognized Quality Presents 48% Upside At Brixmor Properties [View article]
    you don't think their debt load is excessive? You do realize that before Brixmor was Brixmore the prior Australian Reit which rolled up all these properties more or less defaulted on bonds and then ceded equity to the banks for restructuring then they re-branded as Brixmor but the unsustainability of the debt even after some of it was converted to equity is not realistic.

    http://bit.ly/VelgDM
    http://bloom.bg/VelgDO
    centro properties got consolidated and amalgamated into a larger brixmor.
    http://prn.to/VelgDR
    in reality what happened was simply a separation of US and Australian operations under the Blackstone umbrella and a rebraneded name Brixmore the assets are still way overleveraged.
    Aug 12 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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