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crimsonbey

crimsonbey
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  • IGI Labs: A Conviction Buy For 2015 [View article]
    Their q1 is guided lower than q4, ergo they are hesitant to expand on revenue growth in the year so it could be lower than expected.

    At 50 mil run rate per year they are valued around 13 times sales if you figure 60 mil shares after convert... This was assumed to be with them growing 100+% year on year at least. So the expectations were probably 100mil in sales this year. If they get to half the multiple it would put them somewhere around 5-6-ish.

    People also completely ignore the new manufacturing cap-ex they talked about. Ergo if they build out greenfield 36months+ or less if they try to do something else. Lets be optimistic and say 18 months... Again this new and in my view one has to be realistic and say if they go the expansion of manufacturing capability route it takes at lest two years...
    Basically next quarter we will see if they break ground or guide for starting this aspect.

    Notice their samples in the quarter as those take a quarter or two to get saturated by the market they may cannibalize their future sales a little bit, and we could assume it takes the same effort in other products if they launch them.

    My sense as all these headwinds increase the amount of people trying to get out will increase. Trends go both ways...
    Mar 3, 2015. 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale's Q4 Iron Ore Results Solid Despite Price Crash [View article]
    The interest costs and operating are dollar/brl and are ongoing so the impact from debt increase is very material.

    Vale market cap of 38b + debt of 26 or so is 64 bil entity value or so give or take a few billion.

    But the larger question is as you put it "Iron Ore prices not recovering." that is the underlying expectation for someone. A lot of value is predicated on future expectations and right now it does seem all the stockpiles built up at higher prices have higher steel volumes that aren't being saturated by the markets at large. The amount of time that this would take is the question nor does anyone see piles of inventory stocked by China and others in real time. Marginal producers which I assume are Australia being driven out of the market is a very interesting question in my book, since once that happens and the inventory issue is accessed in regard to saturation you could sort of guess if there will be a recovery.
    Mar 2, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale's Q4 Iron Ore Results Solid Despite Price Crash [View article]
    I do not like the debt overhang, cliffs is much better in that regard. You could compare entity value vis a vis ebitda and realize what is cheaper without currency risk embedded in the debt.

    The issue for me is this. Do you think they will impair their assets or if they impaired them will they do it further because that is usually an unknown until it happens.
    Mar 1, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Vascepa Gains Market Share During The Week Of Presidents' Day [View article]
    Like I said before its' the prescription data that is the question. It essentially has to show consistent traction. That has not been the case...

    Everything else other than an additional product does not matter much. If they could get a product to bolt onto their salesforce from someone else then the whole dynamic shifts.

    Ergo by Q3 they need to do more than 25mil+...
    Feb 28, 2015. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IAMGOLD's 4th Quarter Results Are Better Than Expected - Shares Are A Buy [View article]
    The decline in proved reserves was the other side of the coin on the quarterly.
    Situation around the Mali mines did not clear up as Anglo seems to not want to go ahead with expansion/re-development and IAG doesn't want to do so alone. It seems an adverse proposition unless someone somewhere wants to partner. The problem is we have no idea what sort of pricing for an exit would Anglo want in relation to their share.
    Feb 26, 2015. 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of Luna Gold's Corporate And Operational Update [View article]
    You have to factor into their cash the payback of the credit/debt outstanding. The interesting thing about this whole LUNA and Sand deal is we have no idea how Brazilian legal aspects impact the streaming agreement resolution if there is an adverse proposition.
    Feb 25, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelixis: Expected METEOR Trial Success Changes Everything [View article]
    look at their earnings... they would have disclosed it there I think...
    Feb 24, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Should Appreciate As Auryxia's Use And Suitability Grow [View article]
    I specifically said expectations change as launch evolves. Launch changes expectations from R&D to business aims that are differently seen by people. There is no longer an objective (FDA approval) aim but a subjective aim by every participant.
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Should Appreciate As Auryxia's Use And Suitability Grow [View article]
    what is FUD, I think my elaboration was fairly concise.

    As launches start expenses come to fruition and the company has to show traction against expectations that generally 'optimistic'. You also have more expectations against sales, pricing, adoption, coverage, and profitability. The more factors you need to succeed against the less likely the outcome in your favor in the timeframe in question. Where as before the company only had research success or failiure culminating in FDA approval now it has multiple factors each of which impacts the others.

    All of these bifurcations clash with the psychology of people holding because now they have to for themselves place a very different aim or aims which are differentiated. Ergo before people were looking for approval now everyone is looking for different aspects. So measurement becomes more subjective and expectations overall due to multiple factors are higher not lower.

    In the next two to three quarters as sales only start to show up, expenses on the other hand will be ramping up far faster. Everyone will have a different threshold of disappointment.

    I am going to give you a success story as an example look up Acorda and keep in mind it got its' approval in January of 2010. Three years later... Yes it did have spikes up and down along the way but the general trend was not good during that time. After three years it finally went convincingly above. Jan 2010 and stayed there.
    Feb 22, 2015. 09:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Should Appreciate As Auryxia's Use And Suitability Grow [View article]
    As launches go my sense there are more disappointments than with development and research milestones. Those are concrete and the potential they get attached towards is ambiguous but once the launch happens reality and potential get re-aligned.

    My expectations for this company are very grim for the next three-six months not because I think it won't be successful but because the expectations are far higher than the reality.
    Feb 22, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Overleveraging, Underhedging, And Blind Order Flow Offer A Compelling Short [View article]
    I assume they paid off the credit line. Ergo in order to renew or renegotiate the agreement the credit line was probably paid off. If they used some of it to buy back debt at 70 cents on the dollar it would have been good use of capital. Say a marginal purchase of 30-40 mil.

    My sense is operational flexibility is good the problem is how it will be used. If they used up 60-90 mil on the new line for the well purchases and some marginal debt that would be accretive immediately and then they pay it back in a few quarters the company would get stronger.
    Feb 22, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Vascepa Keeps Rising On A 'Down' Week [View article]
    that is not enough. They need to break 25 mil by q3. What I see is lack of operational flexibility and no traction. If they can show traction they can get another product as well I think.
    Feb 22, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ally Financial: 67% Of Tangible Book Value Is Laughable [View article]
    the loans they already have booked will contract as their volumes shrink but their capital goes up on recovery of principal and they either need to shrink as a company by buying down liabilities or expand into a different area
    Feb 22, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ally Financial: 67% Of Tangible Book Value Is Laughable [View article]
    The issue here long term say three years out is risk-repricing and margin compression due to funding constraints. If CD rates go to 2-3% and competition for deposits creates a situation where old duration loans do not pay off fast enough as new ones aren't generating enough due to compression between rates given and taken the company will be very hard pressed to get 20+ billion in funding that would stabilize it.

    Problem for these types of firms is the cost of funds when it is beneficial allows very large balance sheet deployment but once it starts trending marginally in a different direction the amount of drag on curtailing that deployment and keeping competitive and in-line with funding needs creates severe pressures. With credit card issuers like Amex and Discover the difference in loan rates and funding is high enough to withstand that pressure, but with auto loans the market is simply far wider and the hurdle once lowered on rates pushes the company to either shrink or have smaller margins.
    Feb 21, 2015. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Vascepa Keeps Rising On A 'Down' Week [View article]
    I think they need to grow at around 1.5% to 2% week on week to get to the possibility of 175k-200k total scripts next quarter. The problem I see is that once lovaza scripts deplete the growth impulse that amarin it is seeing could come down.

    What is lacking is traction consistency, ergo minimal pervasive growth. They need to grow around 200-250 scripts week on week. What I see is that holidays were simply shifting scripts forward and backward
    Feb 21, 2015. 04:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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