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crimsonbey

crimsonbey
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  • Five Lessons From Ohr Pharma [View article]
    good thoughts as always, very enjoyable reading your point of view
    Mar 27, 2015. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Bancorp Should Have Buyers Deep In The Green At Q1 Reporting [View article]
    if you consider their avg loans of 1.5 and the impact of 294 from the acquisition their average increase of 254 is actually a decline ex-acquisition
    Their loan growth in 4q was around 10% ex-acquisition and if you consider the impact of decline of exposure than the buy they did was similarly exposed thus the decline in essence is the run-down on their book pay-backs.

    Tangible book is below around 9.80+... my expectations are very very very negative, the problem with this one is the earnings power is simply not there, they have no ability to earn their way out of any problems like a niche asset management business or something that differentiates them from others in similar space.

    Theoretically they should increase loan reserves as their non-current problems grow just in case...

    If you look at their non-interest income they are making money on selling guaranteed loans... what happens when those flows decline, end, impact their own bottom line? in some sense this is cannibalization of their own potential income from those loans... ergo they are driven it seems by necessity and not design.

    Allowance for loan losses in relation to their portfolio growth is the same if they increased it by a million or two it would wipe out earnings for a quarter or half them.
    Mar 26, 2015. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Should Make An Acquisition [View article]
    that is not what I said... writing off and imparing an asset did not mean it was underdepreciated it simply means it was accelerated at the point the asset was deemed no longer economically viable, ergo the depreciation was not to scale timewise

    the profits were not phony it was simply the expectations and reality vis a vis the cycle of the business

    debt paydowns have to generate returns for shareholders just like any other business decision they have to generate more income than they take out
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Should Make An Acquisition [View article]
    somewhat true BUT...

    the impairments are usually cash-flow estimates of current earnings/recoveries of an asset, ergo if the asset wasn't fully depreciated then you paid more for it than it brought you during its' productive use

    however, if the company is way way way below the price of assets then you are buying the company already deducting the value of that asset and this is just reality so the impact is moot on value at hand and is just a realization of reality at hand
    Mar 21, 2015. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Should Make An Acquisition [View article]
    theoretically they could buy someone for shares and it would be accretive if earnings are stable enough to play out.
    Mar 21, 2015. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Should Make An Acquisition [View article]
    if it did not guarantee the debt it would still be liable since it exercises control more or less and a lot of transactions are not "at arms length"

    it wouldn't be creditors but minority shareholders as well

    theoretically speaking if the rosneft transaction went through it would have been a very niche focused company the problems due to political risk in addition to business commodity risk made the situation a bit more precarious
    Mar 21, 2015. 12:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Takeaways From Antares Pharma's Q4 2014 Results [View article]
    Problem is the risk of dilution and the risk of litigation.
    Mar 17, 2015. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing The Next 3 Northeast Regional Banks [View article]
    Tangible book seems to be the missing metric, or at least the leverage ratio.

    both vly and npbc bought something recently, florida and philadelphia respectively. The problem is neither can grow their balance sheet very much so they will try to limit what they get which would in my sense lead to slowly exiting relationships or a raise of capital somehow to keep the breadth.

    Both banks have an incentive to overbid on something using their share price to compensate with capital acquired from the target to get some sort of accretion to capital on the combined balance sheet...
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talmer Bancorp Is Tempting But Still An Avoid [View article]
    The danger with management like this is that they may feel they will have to "buy something" and it will most likely occur at the wrong possible time.

    In my view it is better to overpay for something once in a while knowing what your getting instead of following the price and inching behind it trying to get a deal. In the first instance you may be getting lower returns, in the second you may be getting something you do not want. Generally management driven by "prudent" acquisitions is part of the herd that is always wrong. They buy when others buy and sell when others sell. It is better to do something counter-cyclical, once management shows that they behave like this, their value-add is actually negative long term and the intermittent spikes of success only reinforce their behavior.

    The problem with all of this is that they are looking to buy plausible deniability. Ergo someone with problems that aren't attributed to them since they thought it was a good deal but it was a pumpkin in disguise. Management afraid to build is afraid to own whatever they produce and expecting to buy growth on the cheap while cheaper short term is very dear long term. That is why most do not build out infrastructure for niche businesses because it takes, time, effort, and money which lower earnings but like buying things.
    Mar 17, 2015. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American National Bankshares: 4.26% Yield With Fifth Consecutive Year Of TBV Growth [View article]
    I think they have trouble actually growing or wanting to grow parts of their business. In my view they are a fairly set in doing very minimal things to get where they are which sort of seems right in a high risk environment but periodically they have to take risks which they limit to mergers.

    a lot of times you will find that liquidity volume wise dissapears just when you need it and is probably one of the reasons it trades the way it trades, compared to others where they try to get some sort of competitive advantage niche going where they are strong or earn well or consistency this one is very average but tries to inch in all directions a little at a time
    Mar 15, 2015. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Atlantic Drilling gets drillship termination from Rosneft [View news story]
    I don't think you understand. How would they staff ships in that area or service them, as well as, bid on work if most of it is either in Norway or close to it? ... without an office at least.
    Mar 14, 2015. 06:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surging Growth, Banc Of California Remains A Bargain [View article]
    thanks for the granular ageing aspect, didn't think about it really.

    Was he there before or after the implosion since if it is after it would be post someone -else mess creation. wamu did the dividendend play where they paid with capital, while booking imaginary earnings I remember looking at it and finding it funny.

    I understand the capital ratio problem, that is why in my view they should have raised more while they did already. If they started redeeming say 5-10 million a quarter afterwards perhaps would have been more prudent to both reduce shareholder capital stack complexity and gain more equity. Granted they would have had to slow the growth and it would look poorly growth wise for a a few quarters.

    If you notice the example I provided the provisions would not manage earnings but the loans themselves to attempt to clean up the balance sheet in masse or through workouts. Ergo reserving more for the sake of being able to remove the problem.
    Mar 14, 2015. 05:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surging Growth, Banc Of California Remains A Bargain [View article]
    they could simply redeem the debt/preferreds with excess cash to increase accretion...

    The residual mortgages on book from mortgage banking would be a worry sign if/when sales turn lower for residential which is happening now in my view. Them reliant so heavy on that non-interest portion of income is the weak factor.
    notes at ~94 and preferred is around ~79 with ~7.5%/8% cost... around ~3.3 a quarter in cost.

    I think it would be better for them to start increasing their allowances now by 2-5 mil a quarter just in case, while it would be a drag from an earnings perspective it would give them more flexibility to get rid of problem loans. Some banks packaged a few hundred million of those sold them reversed the allowance when their losses came at lower numbers so they could cushion the impact on an ongoing basis, astoria did this recently I think.
    http://yhoo.it/18FHwNn

    my expectations for next quarter are fairly negative. Why 2 years ago?
    Mar 13, 2015. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surging Growth, Banc Of California Remains A Bargain [View article]
    Certain aspects I completely do not understand. Why couldn't they raise more equity lets say 70-80 mil and pay back some of those preferred shares? and subordinated/senior notes? They have 45 mil in subs at 7.5% why not issue a little more equity and buy those back on april 2015 when they could call them at par?

    Mortgage banking income is going to decline in my view but the jumbled up structure in the preferred/teu/subs/senior notes is the drag on accretiion of equity. Realistically speaking if they could reduce this drag it would be an interesting play.

    The popular transaction is interesting but I will wait to see what happens in Q1, the normalization on the run rate should be interesting if there is one. It could theoretically be possible for some charge-offs or reserves on their end for the loan book they bought even though they say they only took the good portfolio. I simply expect rational expenses for integration to be for a few quarters since they only closed the transaction recently
    Mar 11, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iamgold: Working Capital Exceeds Market Capitalization [View article]
    rrright the jobs report not gold going down by 2.5% but the jobs report...
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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