Victhom

Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round: 1/30/08: FLEX Your Muscles

Hey Jim just want to show you what an Economist with a PHD from Harvard says about US economy in 2008-2009....May be you will stop Pumping Banks and Financials...LOL

Risk of a Global Recession Following the U.S. Hard Landing?
Nouriel Roubini | Jan 30, 2008
It is now clear that the US economy is already into a recession that started in December 2007: the data on December employment, retail sales, manufacturing ISM, housing and other macro variables confirm it. And the 0.6% growth for Q4 GDP confirmed that sharp slowdown of the economy in Q4 and its tipping over into a recession by December. It may take –as usual – almost a year for the NBER to formally declare that a recession started; but when that decision is made it will be clear that the great US recession of 2008 started in December 2007 or – at best – Q1 of 2008.

At this point it is clear that the debate has shifted to how deep this recession will be, a mild one lasting two quarters as the new consensus claims or a deeper, longer recession – lasting at least four quarters – as I have been arguing for a while.

It is also clear now that this US recession will lead to a global economic slowdown – short of a global recession that would occur if global growth were to be below 2.5% - and to actual recession in a number of individual economies.

Nouriel Roubini predicted a deep and prolonged recession in the U.S. economy, perhaps lasting as long as a year. He added that it would inevitably affect the world economy.

www.bloomberg.com/avp/...


The main points:

- the US has already entered a recession and this recession will be protracted and severe, more so than the mild recessions in 1990-91 and 2001;

- whatever the Fed does will be too little too late as you cannot resolve problems of insolvency with monetary policy and as it takes years to clear a glut of housing, consumer durables and automobiles;

- the rest of the world cannot decouple from a US hard landing; when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches the cold; and this time the US will have a severe case of pneumonia; thus expect significant contagion to the rest of the world; thus, there will be a significant global economic growth slowdown.

NOW YOU YOU CAN SAY WHATEVER YOU WANT THIS MARKET WILL SANK HARD AND FAST...IT WILL BE A "HARD LANDING"....COPY THAT HOUSTON???