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taosjake

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  • iPhone 6 Selling Poorly On China's Gray Market: Are Xiaomi, Lenovo Hurting Apple? [View article]
    What an amazingly clueless article. If you read Chinese you'll have been following the escalating number of reservations for pre-orders for the iohone 6 in China. Just one site (the large e-retailer JingDong) alone had logged over 8 million reservations and published estimates now place the total number of reservation at 15 million even before pre-orders begin. My advice for those who want to follow Apple in China: do it yourself through Baidu, just search for iPhone 6, you'll find plenty of information the western press chooses not to pass on.
    Oct 7, 2014. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BAML: Apple/China Mobile hopes too high [View news story]
    @jamesmarsh While I appreciate your providing cultural background, your over-generalizations risk misleading through caricature. China, Japan, and Korea are large and complex societies and there are many cross-currents. In China, Korean TV dramas, popular music, and fashion have large followings. My mother-in-law in Beijing once refused to come and visit me in Seoul because she would miss her beloved Korean drama! Similarly, one of my Chinese uncles-in-law hates all Koreans because of Korean gangster wartime behavior in Tianjin, while another reveres them because they assassinated Japanese generals etc. in Shanghai in the 1930s and because Kim Dae Jung was such an effective proponent of democratization. There is much contempt for Koreans out in Chinese cyberspace calling them ”Korean thugs” 高丽棒子 and Koreans are happily to respond in kind "짱게" very roughly "chink scum", but who are the largest group of foreign students in China? Koreans. And the largest group in South Korea? The Chinese. Chinese may be gritting their teeth a bit, but they buy Samsung and LG TVs in huge numbers. I do agree that Apple floats above all competition on a cloud of social prestige, but to be fair Samsung does have its fans. And Japanese-Korean relations are equally complex and full of paradoxes. Just some observations by an American who has been observing the scene for several decades. . . .
    Dec 12, 2013. 05:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple [View article]
    I think its likely to assume that the dividend will indeed be qualified and so be taxed at preferential rates. Why would Einhorn or other investors want anything else?
    Feb 10, 2013. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Properly Manage A Company's Cash Hoard [View article]
    Agree, and Einhorn's proposal to do a modest test and see how the secondary market market treats the preferred shares makes sense.
    HIs plan is not insane at all, especially given the voracious search for quality, yield bearing stocks with lower volatility than AAPL. Under his plan, Apple would still have the cash available and shareholders would get a tax friendly distribution in the form of qualified dividends and long term gains (hopefully) on the preferred shares they could take at their leisure.
    Feb 10, 2013. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Apple Weren't A Tech Stock? [View article]
    Apple products are red-hot popular in China, which is why the iPhone 5 commands a 30% premium on the black market there even before it's being sold.

    For what its worth, the notion of the Chinese as impoverished peasants and slave-like factory workers is passé . I travel there frequently. Last spring I was in an up-scale KTV bar in Beijing and noticed that the waitress nad an iPhone 4. I asked her how many of her fellow employees had an iPhone, and to my my shock she said, "We all do. Android just isn't cool."
    Nov 10, 2012. 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Apple Weren't A Tech Stock? [View article]
    For what its worth, the notion of the Chinese as impoverished peasants and slave-like factory workers is passé . Last spring I was in an up-scale KTV bar in Beijing and noticed that the waitress nad an iPhone 4. I asked her how many of her fellow employees had an iPhone, and to my my shock she said, "We all do. Android just isn't cool."
    Nov 10, 2012. 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Dominate China [View article]
    I like your comments generally and share your belief in the future of Apple in China, even if I find your tone is a bit too hyperbolic for my tastes in places. But your point that "The tragic Great Leap Forward resulted in a generation of poor and uneducated youth who now have children of their own" will strike many as rather ludicrous. You might be on a bit firmer footing to invoke the Cultural Revolution, when most schools were shut for a decade or so, but even there, that's simply wrong, in my opinion. The current economic miracle in China was created precisely by that generation, who were hardened by their experiences and feel pride in their enhanced incomes. They are a winning generation, not the losers.
    Apr 22, 2012. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Dominate China [View article]
    Currently I'm living and working in South Korea. The iPhone entrance November 2009 transformed the market and became the first foreign maker cell phone ever to be a hit. Samsung has fought back bitterly, using its press connections to trash Apple at every turn and large subsidies to the Korean telcos to lower the price of their offerings. Additionally the larger screens and LTE capability of Android sets have drawn a number of fans. Moreover Siri still does not work in the Korean language. So I would say on the phone front, the iPhone 5 is eagerly waited, but whether it will work with the Korean LTE remains an open question. The iPad, on the other hand, have near-complete dominion here and that seems unlikely to change in the future. The new iPad was just premiered and looks to be a huge hit.
    Apr 22, 2012. 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is There Apple Without China? [View article]
    A fine article. As for the general condescending pity many Americans seem to feel for Foxconn workers, I say get over it. We all live and work within the situation we're given and strive to have a better life. Having lived, worked, and traveled in China on and off for 15 years, I find little to pity (except the poor kids of undocumented workers who can't get a good ecucation) and much to admire. This in a dynamic age of capitalistic heroism in China, and the Foxconn workers are future winners, able to save for houses, educate themselves, escape rural poverty and see the world. If anyone I pity the plight of American workers for Ikea, in thrall to the evil Swedes and treated as second-class workers.-)
    Mar 28, 2012. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And The Difference Between Pinning And Open Interest Max Pain [View article]
    IMO no need for grand conspiracies, just well-informed actors following ad hoc weeklies game theory. With low volume and no outside news to prompt ETF and other share buying, the fence prices come into focus by mid-week and the closer the pps gets to them, the more profitable option selling becomes, even as call holders have to sweat rapidly dwindling time value and the knowledge that fences generally hold, so better to bail out and wait for another round to reload.

    For "on-cycle" monthly expiration the deep in the money calls tend to pile up in AAPL, and selling them before expiration will likely trigger the familiar cascade downward as other longs bail and call sellers jump in, joined perhaps by HFT programs keying off the negative TA created by all the option related sales. This dynamic is especially nasty in January with all the leaps expiring and the "sell the news" explanation purveyed by the media providing a convenient psychological catalyst.
    Jan 3, 2012. 03:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And The Difference Between Pinning And Open Interest Max Pain [View article]
    Good survey of why pinning occurs, but I have to disagree concerning your analysis of the forces behind "max pain" (or "average clearing price" as I prefer to call it). IMO price fences are very likely caused by option trading in volume of short call/put combos and iron condors, playing the odds on the normal dynamic of the weeklies, especially during weeks with low volume. If I'm doing this almost every week, then likely so are many larger players.
    Jan 2, 2012. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
11 Comments
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