AlbyVA

AlbyVA
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  • Short ConocoPhillips Now  [View article]
    After you lay off some people and shut down expensive projects, your break even point declines ;-)
    Feb 13, 2016. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short ConocoPhillips Now  [View article]
    Maybe your previous article should have said to short COP. In that article you didn't even mention anything about Short Selling.

    A real visionary would have a link to an article they posted last year titled, "short conocophillips now" lol
    Feb 13, 2016. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short ConocoPhillips Now  [View article]
    Long Player says, "Short ConocoPhillips Now" on Feb. 12 2016 after the stock has fallen 50% since this time last year. Obviously somebody is a little late to the game.

    Where were you on Feb 12, 2015 Long Player to make such a prediction? lol

    Funny how so called experts state the obvious after the fact. Just like a bank willing to lend you money after you already declared bankruptcy. Muahahahahahaaa.. Go back to your hole Long Player, your advice is useless.


    Here is a piece of advice, ***Buy ConocoPhillips*** because the downside has already ended, oil has bottomed, and the upside is looking far more profitable than trying to short COP and hoping you get a few dollars off the trade.
    Feb 13, 2016. 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: The Drop Is An Opportunity  [View article]
    It's not a loss unless you sell. Red numbers on a computer terminal are only paper losses unless you realize them. If you wait for the oil market to get back to normal (currently irrational) you won't have any losses.
    Feb 12, 2016. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: The Drop Is An Opportunity  [View article]
    WRONG!!!! COP became a proxy for oil and with the divestiture of PSX, it allows COP to reap all the rewards when oil rises, but also incurs all the pain when oil falls.

    If you want a company with down stream assets, go buy Exxon and enjoy the snails pace of change.
    Feb 12, 2016. 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The ConocoPhillips Poster Child  [View article]
    The article reads like a short seller trying to push the stock lower by talking smack about management when share prices are low and the dividend was cut because of forces outside of the company's control. Yet when stock and oil prices were high, this firm had nothing to say about management.
    Feb 11, 2016. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ConocoPhillips Poster Child  [View article]
    COP is a proxy for oil, end of story. Shareholders will benefit when oil goes up and suffer when oil goes down. If you want an investment which isn't a proxy for oil, find a nice REIT paying a dependable dividend.

    If "management" was really the problem, where was this article from 720 Global when COP was trading at $80+/share and oil was $100/barrel in 2014? lol
    Feb 11, 2016. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Very Painful Dividend Cut  [View article]
    Refining operations are steady operations that don't fluctuate all that much because they pass along the input cost to consumers. The only real impact they have is when input costs rise (and they pass it along) it leads to a slight reduction in consumption.

    Why do you think Buffett likes PSX? Because it's a simple business with a steady flow of predictable money. So anybody holding PSX shouldn't expect to make a lot of money. PSX is ideal to stuff your retirement into once you retire.

    Those looking to make money or boost their retirement value should be buying COP while it's down. When oil rebounds, you'll be happy with the returns that far exceeds anybody's dividends. If you are going to risk money on an E&P, the best place to be is on one with the size and scale of COP to weather these cyclical storms.
    Feb 11, 2016. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Very Painful Dividend Cut  [View article]
    Dividends are nice, but I'd put more focus on the rise in share value from oil moving higher into the future. The macroeconomics of oil will "force" prices higher, no matter how many times talking heads and so called experts keep saying, "Lower for longer".

    (a) Global Capex Cuts of 25% - 50% (Reduced Capex = Reduced Production)
    (b) Demand Growth (More SUV Sales, Cheaper Airline Tickets creates more flights, etc)
    (c) Global Population Growth (More people = More Consumption of things that run on oil)

    Just as they once said, "The Best Cure for Higher Oil Prices are High Oil Prices." The reverse is also true. "The Best Cure for Lower Oil Prices are Low Oil Prices." When countries like Nigeria, Venezuela, and Russia fund huge parts of their budgets with Petro Dollars and their reserves are almost non-existent, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they won't be spending any money on drilling new holes or pumping money into keeping up their existing holes. That will bring global production offline the longer oil is cheap. Yet demand will only grow because oil is cheap. Eventually demand exceeds supply and prices will rise.

    OIL is Cyclical. Always has been and always will be.
    Feb 11, 2016. 08:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Cash Flow Neutrality At $45 Brent  [View article]
    For the long haul, the way I see it is that massive global wide cuts in Capex will "force" production cuts. You can't sustain 95/million barrels a day with capex being cut 50% across the oil producing world.

    If you can believe that plausible theory, then it suggests that oil's future will be a rise in prices as supply begins to fall below demand. There is nothing impacting demand for oil and you'd be hard press to find any evidence of demand destruction with oil at $30/barrel. In fact, you'll more likely start to see increases in demand as we move into the spring/summer months, more people start driving larger fuel tank vehicles vs. hybrids, and thanks to cheap oil you'll have cheap airline tickets and with a stronger dollar far more people will begin travelling. All that adds up to increased demand for oil at the same time production is falling off a cliff.

    I'm not sure what the Saudi angle is, because they will hurt frackers and high cost drilling. But that is only a temporary hurt, because when prices move higher, all those frackers and high cost drillers come right back online in a matter of months. The only hurt the Saudis are putting on anybody is a hurt on their $600/billion in reserves as it depletes by roughly $10-20/billion a month and creates political instability as their population has to start losing benefits and seeing prices increase on various things which have been subsidized.

    In any case, those who "INVEST" for the long haul will be rewarded during these downturns. Those who "TRADE" can continue losing sleep at night not really knowing what tomorrow will bring. Personally, if I was the President of an oil producing nation that was hurting under low oil prices, I would back up the truck on oil futures and then announce that our nation would completely halt all oil production. That would send prices spiking through the roof overnight. I would then sell my futures into that spike and make up the losses from oil production with gains in futures contracts. lol
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Cash Flow Neutrality At $45 Brent  [View article]
    That is true, it's just a contract floating around until expiration date.
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Cash Flow Neutrality At $45 Brent  [View article]
    Conoco doesn't need to wait til Brent's spot price gets back above $45/barrel, they can hedge their oil in the futures market. May 2019 is selling for $45/barrel right now -- http://bit.ly/23Vjy9L
    Feb 9, 2016. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors Are Overlooking ConocoPhillips' Operations  [View article]
    As long as Conoco can service their debt, all is good. Everything else is just the cyclical nature of being an E&P. The world isn't ending, oil will remain the energy source for "billions" of people for a very long time and thus demand will increase.

    And to the people who continue to say "The World is Awash in Oil", let me remind you the world consumes roughly 93,000,000/barrels a day and production is currently 95,000,000/barrels a day. The over supply is equal to about 90/mins of daily global production. That oversupply can be quickly vanquished as production begins to fall because CapEx is being cut in half globally, thanks to low oil prices.

    Rome wasn't built in a day and neither will the flip between production and demand. But if you can look beyond a few quarters and think long term, it'll pay off in the long run. Which is what everybody should do in the market. Ignore the daily/quarterly fluff and focus on the long run.
    Feb 9, 2016. 10:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips extends losses after dividend cut decision  [View news story]
    "So do I sell and take my loss and move on or do I wait until oil moves up dragging the stock up"

    The obvious choice is to wait. Why would you create a loss when you don't have to, knowing the reason COP is down is because of oil's price and the current geopolitical issues going on with Saudi Arabia's realization they aren't the top dawg in oil anymore?

    Once the Saudi bankroll of around $700/billion bleeds off or they come to their senses that they can't shutoff America's 9.3/million barrels a day, they will cut production. And if they don't cut production, the global producers will because they've been slashing CapEx by 25-50%.

    No matter how you slice it, the future price of oil is going up and proof of that truth can be seen in the futures market for oil. http://bit.ly/1W98AHO*
    Feb 8, 2016. 11:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why ConocoPhillips Cut Its Dividend But BP Hasn't  [View article]
    A well that has already been drilled and is pumping oil costs almost nothing to keep the oil flowing.

    Drilling new wells is a different story, which is why you've seen rig counts drop by 75%.

    The only operating costs most E&Ps have outside of drilling is keeping the lights on and employing people to stand around so they don't lose their talent.

    All E&Ps need to focus on is keeping their debt serviced, a bare minimum of employees, and the electric bill paid to keep the pump jacks working.


    Don't confuse Drilling Costs with Operating Costs.
    Feb 8, 2016. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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