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Garfield23

Garfield23
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  • Treasury yields fall some more from mid-week levels that were the highest since late October. Just a bit of the bid seems to have come out of equities and the positive economic surprises have dried up for the moment. The long bond -4.5 bps to 3.32%. The 10-year down 4 bps to 2.24% (2.38% on Wednesday). TLT +0.7%.  [View news story]
    Ha, ha, - Alby, we know your just talking your positiOn, yet the sky is not falling in bonds, and yes our data analytics support our position.

    Least we not forget china and euro are slowing and your blue sky scenario does not hold water.
    Mar 25, 2012. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields fall some more from mid-week levels that were the highest since late October. Just a bit of the bid seems to have come out of equities and the positive economic surprises have dried up for the moment. The long bond -4.5 bps to 3.32%. The 10-year down 4 bps to 2.24% (2.38% on Wednesday). TLT +0.7%.  [View news story]
    we see the 10 year yield going back to 2.0% and the 30 going back to 3.0%
    Mar 23, 2012. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are China ETFs Poised For A Hard Landing? [View article]
    Yes, all of these ETF's will hard land, especially as when we feel a 150pt drop is coming for the Shanghai composite, back to the 2,200 levels...
    Mar 22, 2012. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While China's weak PMI number may be the spark that started today's sell off, shares in Shanghai and Hong Kong, ended last night flat to positive. Both markets have already suffered declines of about 5% in the last month on top of more significant drops in 2011. Perhaps the washout in shares has already occurred, says Doug Kass.  [View news story]
    Kass, you couldn't be more wrong. - the only reason their market didn't tank last night is bc they had all their fake company-government co's report their again fake earnings.....tonight (for us) and tomorrow (for them) you will see their markets tank on this news!
    Mar 22, 2012. 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In addition to falling Chinese property prices is a sharp slowdown in sales, SocGen's team noting a 20% decline Y/Y for January and February combined. It's the worst result since 2008 and the worst since the series started in 2006.  [View news story]
    NOTE: our analyst chartologist shows the FXI was near 4 cents of brkng dwn of 200 dy smple-MA today with expctns fr mjr drp FXI today/tomoro
    Mar 19, 2012. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China is already in a hard landing, says JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat. "If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing... Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact."  [View news story]
    Conv. Wzdm,

    I agree with you post.

    People are not paying much attention to this inverted yield curve and you are correct , in a developed country this is a recession.

    On another note, people are not realizing that previous years super growth will become/and is becoming its own enemy, too much investment now show tons of factories sitting vacant.

    The Hang Seng and ShgHai Comp are going to correct in a major way in the next week or two as people realize everything that is going on and the people get scared as they see through the China leaders lies and excuses.

    It is amazing how the China leaders use excuses and tell lies and people believe it, for example:

    1. they say they are cooling the Real estate market on purpose, - what this really means is our real estate bubble popped and is now crashing

    2. they say they are cancelling the Airbus plane orders because of a small fee dispute, -- what this really means is our economy is crashing and we really dont have a need for any more planes, but we will use this a an excuse

    3. they say their GDP is targeted at 7.5%, -- what this really means is when our GDP comes in at 3-4% it wont be so hard to stretch to the 7.5% instead of the 8-9%

    4. they say their factories can't find workers and they are sitting empty - this means they new order phone isnt inging anymore and now all the factories we built are sitting empty and everyone went back to the countryside because there is no more work

    5. they say there are enviromental concerns with rare metals thats why we lowered the quota, -- what this really means is they need to keep rare earths high overseas, so they are cheap here in China so people will have to buy our Chinese goods and not their home countries, (when this WTO complaint gets settled and China has to open the rare earth markets, their goods now get more of a level playing field and this will hurt exports even more)

    6. when they say oh it was the lunar new year holiday why exports reduced, --- what this really means is holy c**p our country is falling off a cliff and we need any excuse...

    China is doomed. plain and simple.

    this is a recipe for disaster!
    Mar 16, 2012. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China is already in a hard landing, says JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat. "If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing... Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It’s not a debate anymore, it’s a fact."  [View news story]
    falling knife - Mowat is spot on, a hard landing, its gonna get ugly
    Mar 15, 2012. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thin-Air Thursday: A Weak Week Of Denial [View article]
    China is crashing, I agree with Mowat's opinion.

    Also I see a recession and depression, with negative GDP by year end

    people dont realize all the factories are empty and the phone new-orders isnt ringing
    Mar 15, 2012. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on last night's remarks from China Premier Wen: He warns of "chaos" in the market if property curbs are relaxed. The chairman of property developer Soho China (SOHOF.PK) calls the remarks "bad news" for players with high levels of debt. In addition to a steep drop in Shanghai, Hong Kong shares give up big gains to close red. EWH -0.6% premarket.  [View news story]
    China Premier Wen: He warns of "chaos"

    I see chaos coming in China, tons of factories are empty, trade deficit was huge, property market is crashing, - i believe chaos is in progress and more is coming for China
    Mar 14, 2012. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Bank Proposes Tough Medicine For China [View article]
    China is a falling knife! - their shanghai fell of a cliff last night, get ready for more huge drops!

    I see a depression coming in China
    Mar 14, 2012. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Economic Data: Tale Of 2 Chinas And Best Asian Investment Opportunities [View article]
    china's shanghai is a falling knife

    their leader said chaos could be coming , I agree!

    i see recession, then a depression in China.
    Mar 14, 2012. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Investment Thesis For China [View article]
    I agree with this:

    predicting a “hard landing,”

    also, if I was to predict, I see a major recession going to depression in China
    Mar 13, 2012. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nomura revises its 2012 GDP growth forecast for China to 8.2% from 7.9%, saying the economic prints for the year's first 2 months have been weak, but not as bad as the bank expected, and lower inflation leaves room for easier monetary policy. The revision is particularly noteworthy given Nomura's earlier prediction of a 33% chance of a hard landing.  [View news story]
    people should look at other factors then what the Chinese govs tell you

    I read tons of factories are sitting vacant and people are out of work and real estate is dropping 20-30%

    I see a depression coming in China
    Mar 13, 2012. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Australian Economic Data: Tale Of 2 Chinas And Best Asian Investment Opportunities [View article]
    all Chinese data is fiction

    tons of chinese factories are sitting empty and people are out of work

    I see a depression coming in China!
    Mar 13, 2012. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China 2012: No Hard Landing On The Horizon? [View article]
    very simply, tons of chinese factories are sitting empty and peole can't get jobs

    I see China going into a depression
    Mar 13, 2012. 01:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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162 Comments
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