Seeking Alpha

Garfield23's  Instablog

Garfield23
Send Message
View Garfield23's Instablogs on:
  • SOYBEAN OCT 1st: Why I Am Still Holding Out Hope For A Mid-harvest Soybean Rally

    The rise in August Soybeans was not a true rally as it only brought prices to more normal levels. The current November price of $13.20 is low when you compare the supply+demand factors for this year's crop and scrub it with last year's results.

    Many traders are bellowing about lower prices, but I foresee these exact same traders getting shocked when total yields and production numbers come in lower. Additionally on my side are USDA total acres, which was shot to pieces by the FAS total acreage report (which historically has by ~98% matching USDA).

    So why the long faces? And the chump bids? - We think it has more to do with asset managers selling their winners at the end of the quarter and taking their profits for client reporting. Because of this I see all the same players jumping back in immediately come October 1st which could drive prices sky-high (real rally).

    Frankly, the fundamentals are all there, low yields, low acreage and equal or less than last years production, all with intense export demand, - - but the real factor is the speculator who wants to make a profit and capitalize off of this. That's where timing plays a role. And the timing is about to get good again for us straw chewing swashbucklers!

    Emotion says play the player, but logic says play the numbers, and when emotions for profits see there way back October 1st, the stars will align.

    Disclosure: I am long SOYB.

    Additional disclosure: Long soybeans: contracts, ETF, and some options.

    Tags: SPY, SOYB, WEAT, CORN, JPM, C, BAC, GE, GS, QQQ, USO, SLV, GLD, Soybeans
    Sep 27 12:02 PM | Link | Comment!
  • China Coming Panic In Ag Markets As Soybean Shortage Hits World!!!!

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    "...USDA confirmed one of the biggest sales of soybeans in history. The deal covered 70.9 million bushels and came after Chinese buyers signed deals for $2.8 billion worth of soybeans this week in Iowa. The agency also announced sales Wednesday and today to unknown destinations, adding another 11.1 million bushels. All told, the deals should swell the weekly total reported next week to astronomical levels.

    Export commitments to date already are off to a record start for the 2013 marketing year that began Sept. 1. Shipments and sales on the books total 841 million bushels, 61% of the total USDA forecasts for the entire marketing year. China accounts for 552.5 million bushels of the total, and likely will wind up getting many of the 185 million sold to "unknown destinations" as well."

    farmfutures.com/story-china-flexes-muscl...-102582

    Others are upset, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea will start stockpiling soybeans.

    Worldwide shortage.

    Disclosure: I am long SOYB.

    Additional disclosure: Soybean futures

    Sep 19 11:29 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Real Soybean Analysis.

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: AGA, ADZ, JJS, TAGS, USAG, SOYB, SPY, JPM, C, GLD, SLV, BAC, WFC, soybeans
    Sep 17 10:54 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • $EUO $SPY going long the euro as I think it could rally 4 cents over the weekend,
    Nov 22, 2013
  • $GLD also going long $SPY and $DIA
    Nov 22, 2013
  • $GLD $SLV $USO I'm moving my money out of gold and silver and going short the ten year. interest rates have to move higher.
    Nov 22, 2013
More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.