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biserz

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  • LinkedIn: Overvalued But Not A Short [View article]
    It`s probably so...February surprises...I could say agree, but I`m not so involved in this problem. I`m just curious if the effect of QE is measured and what could be? That`s my point...
    Mar 27, 2013. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: Overvalued But Not A Short [View article]
    I`m a big fan of LinkedIn revenue model and not a fan of LinkedIn valuation, at present...Do you know what is the impact of Fed`s QE programs on the stock prices and LinkedIn in particular? Do you find any correlation?
    Mar 27, 2013. 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Stock Index: "Likes" Are A Wise Investment [View article]
    Well, I don`t think this an example of destructive criticism - engagement metrics that are applied by FB and other companies in the so-called social media marketing are just not enough...And if you find that it is conventional to analyze satisfaction (qualitative metrics) and engagement, which measures actually media consumption (quantitative) together - please, let me know who has applied it, if ever?
    You see "Like" is very hard to define - it means different things for different people...So what is "Like", how we define it?
    Mar 27, 2013. 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facebook Stock Index: "Likes" Are A Wise Investment [View article]
    I`m sorry to disapppoint you about happy consumers, but the fact that they "are happy" does not mean that the company would experience outstanding consumption growth and vice versa...Satisfaction does not correlates so well with consumption, neither do ambiguous "Like".
    If it were so why FB is the lowest scoring online social network according to ACSI and same time so "consumed"...
    Table 4.Facebook Satisfaction and Engagement Key Metrics of US audience
    Key Metrics 2009 2010 Change in %
    Total Un. Visitors (M) 111.888 153.886 38%
    Total Minutes (BN) 27.624 49.339 79%
    Total Page Views (BN) 76.836 44.891 71%
    Satisfaftion (ACSI) 64 66 3.13%
    Meagre changes in satisfaction and huge changes in consumption in the same period...You could say that FB is novelty, and agree it was...The novelty period is coming over...And there are bad news - huge changes in satisfaction could lead to meagre changes in consumption...You could find by yourselg many examples...
    Mar 22, 2013. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: Too Expensive For A Staffing Company [View article]
    I think the bubble was the FB IPO and I`m really curious how this would happen - FB to eat LNKD.
    FB is just a fad and this enormous user base of MAUs - still unproven and contradictory metric that Mark Zuckerberg promotes and measures on his own - will soon burst.
    Oct 3, 2012. 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The iPhone 5 May Mark The End Of The Steve Jobs Era [View article]
    I think that AAPL exploited enough from the death of Steve Jobs and now they should start working on their own. As the time passes AAPL will lose its top position...it is easy to say and I think this exuberance of positive sentiment will hit hard the share price soon. It is needed only one failure, only one wrong step... to turn the positive sentiment into negative...which is inevitable.
    Sep 21, 2012. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Reasons LinkedIn Has Outdone Facebook So Far [View article]
    Very good article.
    I think there is at least one more reason - FB should have launched their IPO when they were still in a period of high growth - probably last year and before LNKD.
    The IPO launch last May was a point in favour of LNKD. You may recall that LNKD had similar problems with investors sentiment in the first two Q after the IPO. There had been fears about lock up, as well...But what happened in February this year...
    What is more FB posses the stigma of the worst hi-tech IPO and this could be its brand name among investor community for long if...they don`t try hard to change this...Until now there isn`t many positive signs - and this is one of the reasons that makes also a difference.
    One of the main problems for FB is to control the expectations treadmill. Since the pre-IPO image of Mark Zuckerberg and its creation was powered by media buzz, modern metaphors and imprudent exaggeration this is repaying now in a exaggerated expectations.
    And finally, the business model - but when talk about model lets talk about the owner (majority holder). LNKD owner Reid Hoffman is professional investor with high rank experience. Look more closely at the revenue model and the way company is structured. And then take a look at the fields they work and the expected growth. This says for a lot many differences...
    This contributes for the "professional feel".
    Aug 3, 2012. 04:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's selloff in Facebook (FB -9.8%) is happening even though CLSA's James Lee is starting coverage with a Buy and $40 PT. Lee notes Facebook's ad click rates, a major concern for many, are much higher when an ad targets a "fan" of a product or service, and expects this trend and others to drive online ad share gains at Google's (GOOG) expense. On the flip side, Paul R. La Monica's talks with money managers find little interest in buying Facebook shares, mostly due to valuation concerns.  [View news story]
    Agree up to a some extent - well, there were exceptions, and indeed I`ve heard many investors that FB will be overpriced, but they didn`t know the price in that time. There were just suggestions based on the secondary market and media rumours...Regarding the topic of FB poor metrics I have found few members to discuss them in such depth as it happens now...
    Well, it`s not bad!
    May 31, 2012. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's selloff in Facebook (FB -9.8%) is happening even though CLSA's James Lee is starting coverage with a Buy and $40 PT. Lee notes Facebook's ad click rates, a major concern for many, are much higher when an ad targets a "fan" of a product or service, and expects this trend and others to drive online ad share gains at Google's (GOOG) expense. On the flip side, Paul R. La Monica's talks with money managers find little interest in buying Facebook shares, mostly due to valuation concerns.  [View news story]
    I`m curious why so many people started to talk about poor FB metrics after its misfortunate IPO...Poor FB conversion rates were obvious two or even three years ago, they were published in wikipedia as well and so were concerns regarding this model, but almost nobody spoke about it before the IPO launch.
    And now almost all are focused to find the killer in the story while we don`t have any idea who`s the victim.
    May 31, 2012. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's More Overvalued: Monster Worldwide Or LinkedIn? [View article]
    Pointing out that LNKD is overvalued, which given the info available right now is the most precise guess, you put too much weight on Branchout. Growth of (Branchout) users base is not an evidence of sustainable competetive advantage - this was the most obvious lesson of the internet bubble. What about the Branchout revenue model?
    LNKD revenue model is well diversified and here is sth interesting: the online network gathers most of their revenues offline. The products (the solutions) they sell online and offline have different characteristics in terms of life-cycle, customer cancelation, volume and so on. There is also an obvious difference in customer loyalty - customers self-served online, and those served offline. We could think about the chanel mix as well. And what actually offers Branchout through FB in this respect?
    The value proposition is also important...I don`t mean Branchout is bad or good, but it is still too early to make conclusions.
    And there is sth more - Branchout hype is serving well the aim to pump the balooning price of forthcoming FB IPO.
    Apr 22, 2012. 04:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Analysis: Why LinkedIn Is Still A Hold [View article]
    Thank you!
    Apr 4, 2012. 05:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Goldman Sachs Stole Silicon Valley [View article]
    Gold right now seems to me a very risky investment, while short term profits seem low relaive to risk. Of course, not until there`s enough people to believe it`s not risky and that it could be an investment heaven.
    Apr 4, 2012. 04:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's More Overvalued: Monster Worldwide Or LinkedIn? [View article]
    It`s strange that my expectations for the LNKD price range - $60-70 are similar. However, if company provides better results, enters new markets and the growth of staffing industry and online ad is higher than expected it could earn even more - and vice versa.
    I don`t know what happened with entering the China market - is it a bluff or?
    Apr 4, 2012. 04:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Analysis: Why LinkedIn Is Still A Hold [View article]
    Well, in economics utility is a measure of satisfaction (refer to a dictionary). When you are saying "Satisfaction is not the issue - utility is" you are arguing with the concept. I understand what you mean and of course I disagree in some a. However, I won`t argue with you this time.
    You have a point regarding the purpose of this community - it is to seek for the alpha. And I agree that LinkedIn seems to be overpriced - I valued it about $67 per share class A, and class B (currently not traded) 10% higher using the same DCF model. It seems the market absorbed the information differently than we do.

    However, the social media market, and LinkedIn in particular, could soon turn our assumptions to be valuable only for the dustbin.
    My question is do you think FB could create alpha?
    Mar 28, 2012. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Analysis: Why LinkedIn Is Still A Hold [View article]
    The level of satisfaction and the level of consumption are two different metrics. The former is qualitative and the latter is quantitative. However, it`s up to you...I prefer to use them both and I can find discrepancy in the change (as %) of the level of satisfaction and the level of consumption. Currently, consumption growth outperforms satisfaction growth 20 times, but I think it`s not possible to last forever.Facebook is still a novelty...even after 8 years of existence.
    Mar 3, 2012. 05:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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