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11 Comments
Have Commodities Stocks Peaked?
Oct 19, 2007
Posted by fmdm in US Traded Stocks.
trackback
We always read about China's appetite for commodities and the fact
that the Chinese are largely responsible for the increase in demand
but we had only seen figures relating to wheat and other farming
products.
We recently came across some numbers that we though might be
interesting for you in terms of China's weight in the increase in
demand:
Steel: 65%
Aluminum: 57%
Copper: 93%
Zinc: 93%
Nickel: 71%
One interesting company to look at for this increase in base metal
demand and therefore consumption is Companhia Vale (RIO). They are a
diversified metals and mining company. The Company is a producer and
exporter of iron ore and pellets and a producer of nickel. It also
produces copper, manganese, ferroalloys, bauxite, precious metals,
cobalt, kaolin, potash and other products. The Company is actively
engaged in mineral exploration efforts in 19 countries worldwide. It
operates logistics systems in Brazil, including railroads, maritime
terminals and ports that are integrated with its mining operations.
Directly and through affiliates and joint ventures, the Company has
investments in the aluminum, coal, energy and steel businesses.
Despite having had a lot of attention recently, valuation is still
reasonable and it is ideally placed to take advantage of this demand
and future industry consolidation.
ei-forum.com/2007/12/1......
Baird Slashes Syntax-Brillian Target On LCD Panel Shortage
Tuesday, October 02, 2007 9:35:53 AM ET
Brean Murray, Carret & Co
NEW YORK, October 2 (newratings.com) - Analyst Michael HV Tieu of Brean Murray maintains his "buy" rating on Syntax-Brillian Corporation (ticker: BRLC), while raising his estimates for the company. The target price is set to $8.
In a research note published this morning, the analyst mentions that there is improved optimism regarding the company’s execution of its growth strategy, following James Li’s promotion to the position of CEO. Syntax-Brillian’s ability to finance the upcoming holiday season is expected to have improved significantly, since the company has received support of an additional supplier in Asia and entered into favourable payment terms with retailers, the analyst adds. The EPS estimate for 2008 has been raised from $0.70 to $0.76.
www.newratings.com/ana...
Please be fair in your reporting unless your're a shortie!
Syntax-Brillian's Future Becomes More Uncertain
- Driven by strong shipments, higher ASPs and a robust gross margin, we
anticipate Syntax-Brillian will handily beat current consensus 4QFY07 (June
2007) revenue and EPS estimates of $192 million and $0.13, respectively.
Accordingly, we are introducing our post-offering 4QFY07 revenue and EPS
estimates of $208 million and $0.16. We are also issuing new CY07 estimates
of $1.08 billion and $0.79, and CY08 estimates of $1.67 billion and $1.31. In
addition, as the company continues to accelerate its receivables collection
from SCHOT, we project cash flows from operations will be noticeably positive
in 4QFY07. Further, our research reveals a huge demand backlog for Olevia TVs
and ample production capacity. As such, as the company deploys the cash it
recently raised, we anticipate meaningful upside to our new estimates. We
reiterate BRLC as one of our top picks for 2007; our target price of $15 is
based on the shares trading at less than 20x our CY07 GAAP EPS estimate, or a
modest 11-12x our CY08 EPS forecast.
Discussion
- Strong shipment of Olevia TVs into North American retail channels.
According to our latest checks, 4QFY07 shipments into the North American
retail channel are at least 20-30% higher sequentially. Drivers include
continued solid shipments into existing retailers like Circuit City and
Office Depot and accelerating shipment into new retailers such as Target,
Kmart and Sears. We estimate total 4QFY07 unit shipments will likely exceed
management s guidance of 240,000-270,000 units.
- Larger average screen size should expand ASP while maintaining robust gross
margin. Our research suggests the company continues to ship larger screens,
and the average screen size should continue to expand (recall that the
average screen size expanded from 33.26 in 2QFY07 to 34.37 in 3QFY07).
More important, average selling price (ASP) should exceed the previous
quarter s level of $645, benefiting from the larger average screen size and
fewer promotional discounts. As such, we estimate LCD TV gross margin will
remain robust at 20% (see page 3), while the blended total gross margin will
exceed 17%.
- Huge demand backlog for Olevia TVs as retailers continue to consolidate
brands. Our latest checks continue to support our assertion that demand for
Olevia TVs is well in excess of production. Further, our research suggests
large U.S. retailers are consolidating TV brands in favor of Olevia, as
nearly every existing retailer is expanding SKUs and substantially increasing
their 2H07 demand forecast for Olevia TVs. Moreover, a combination of
favorable independent product reviews and Olevia TVs being sold out at many
retail locations should convince another major U.S. retailer to begin
carrying Olevia TVs in 2H07. As such, our CY07 revenue projection of $1.08
billion may prove too conservative.
Syntax-Brillian's Future Becomes More Uncertain
video.msn.com/?mkt=en-......
Shorts manipulation..directed at seeking alph! Think before you post people..naked shorts will go to jail!
Syntax-Brillian's Future Becomes More Uncertain
- He things Jim Cramer is a clown ....just an irrelevant entertainer.
- He believes that shorts will eventually be fukked and he will be the first one in line. He knows the shorts game better than anyone I've seen before. And the best way to beat your competition is to know their weaknesses and strengths to mount a painful and deadly strike against them....at the right time...when they least expect. Rest assured that he has a plan for that. Italians don't get mad...they get even.
- He mentioned that credit conditions are starting to improve and most importantly that several financial institutions are more than willing to lend BRLC money because it is clear that by reading the 10-K BRLC is a safe bet. This is because every dollar that BRLC invests producing LCDs yields a very healthy return. BRLC might have to pay a little higher interest rate than they would like but the benefits of getting their hands on cash far outweighs a higher interest rate. I believe that we will have some encouraging financing new soon.
Here is Cullen/Vince's excellent and powerful interview:
collegeanalysts.com/?p...
Palm's New Centro Smartphone Could Spark Price War
MOT better have haptic technology from IMMR to be competitive!
Jim Cramer's Mad Money Lightning Round Picks, 7/26/07
progressive.playstream...
Syntax-Brillian's Future Becomes More Uncertain
collegeanalysts.com/?p...
Syntax-Brillian's Future Becomes More Uncertain
www.wallst.net/audio/a......
Notes
Specifically mentions Best Buy as a company that needs to follow SBs business model to compete with the Costcos of the world.
Expects 150% growth over next two quarters
Will finance growth by raising working capital (referenced benefits of product and reliability) thru high demand. Was originally financed thru receivable borrowing and now are looking for a debt offering from a bank. Mentioned that there were a few that had shown interest already.
$200 Million revenue drop going forward was taken from China
Expects to move from 1 1/2 to 2% market share up to 5% in the next 2 years...~250% growth. Will achieve by borrowing against China and debt offerings.
Mentioned street reacted to SBs trouble with handling the growth effectively. Shoring up of internal and forecasting controls should be in place with recent hirings.
Much of this is rehash of CC but the key take-away I find is that he is forecasting in this soundbit that they expect a 250% growth rate for teh next two years so that leaves two options to hit that. Either grow at the 100-150% they have recently forecasted for a couple of quarters and then 300% for subsequent quarters or grow at 250% for every quarter going forward and smach the Wall Street guidance from the CC.
Knowing that he has a distaste for the shorting that has occured with regards to this stock I suspect it is the latter. At the very least (again, if he hits the targets mentioned here) there will be astounding growth no more than 2 quarters out.
If I were short this would make me a bit nervous. What happens when he drops the hammer saying that financing thru (insert bank of choice) has been received to finance growth?
Longs-be prepared to ride a rollercoaster for at least a qtr or get out
Shorts-keep an eye on it or get out.
Best Buy Crushes Estimates, Silences Consumer Worries
www.wallst.net/audio/a......
Notes
Specifically mentions Best Buy as a company that needs to follow SBs business model to compete with the Costcos of the world.
Expects 150% growth over next two quarters
Will finance growth by raising working capital (referenced benefits of product and reliability) thru high demand. Was originally financed thru receivable borrowing and now are looking for a debt offering from a bank. Mentioned that there were a few that had shown interest already.
$200 Million revenue drop going forward was taken from China
Expects to move from 1 1/2 to 2% market share up to 5% in the next 2 years...~250% growth. Will achieve by borrowing against China and debt offerings.
Mentioned street reacted to SBs trouble with handling the growth effectively. Shoring up of internal and forecasting controls should be in place with recent hirings.
Much of this is rehash of CC but the key take-away I find is that he is forecasting in this soundbit that they expect a 250% growth rate for teh next two years so that leaves two options to hit that. Either grow at the 100-150% they have recently forecasted for a couple of quarters and then 300% for subsequent quarters or grow at 250% for every quarter going forward and smach the Wall Street guidance from the CC.
Knowing that he has a distaste for the shorting that has occured with regards to this stock I suspect it is the latter. At the very least (again, if he hits the targets mentioned here) there will be astounding growth no more than 2 quarters out.
If I were short this would make me a bit nervous. What happens when he drops the hammer saying that financing thru (insert bank of choice) has been received to finance growth?
Longs-be prepared to ride a rollercoaster for at least a qtr or get out
Shorts-keep an eye on it or get out.
I am long on BBY and BRLC!!
Syntax-Brillian: The Future Should Be Clear
www.wallst.net/audio/a...