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Big Thunder

Big Thunder
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  • Buy And Hold Vs. Selling Shares: A Study Of Capital Preservation Methods Within A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    "Make the choices that you are most likely to call correctly, and least likely to lose sleep over."

    Right. I still consider myself to be learning the contours of my own investing personality. It seems that I would have made good calls on both, if I had acted on them. But I still like both companies and don't mind having held.
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience, Cash And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    "To me, a 'GE or MMM' decision is a total no-brainer."

    That is the exact realization I had. And then MMM came into my buy range! I love it when a plan comes together. :)
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy And Hold Vs. Selling Shares: A Study Of Capital Preservation Methods Within A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    As I look over the stocks I've sold, I don't see even one that I sold because I thought it became overvalued. I've sold because I lost confidence in the company, or my investment thesis turned out to be wrong, or it was a company I bought early in my investing and I came to realize it lacked certain qualities I want my holdings to have.

    But there have been a few that I've thought maybe I should have sold for overvaluation -- D when it got to 78, APD at 155, perhaps WBA right now? I've always suspected that I'd find it more irksome to have prematurely sold a winner than to hold onto a winner and watch it come back down to earth. But D @ 78 had me thinking "sell", and that would have been a good time; and same with APD @ 155.
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy And Hold Vs. Selling Shares: A Study Of Capital Preservation Methods Within A Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    "When did HAS yield 4.4%?"

    I bought HAS on 12/28/12 @ 35.47; the first dividend paid on those shares was $.40, or $1.60 annualized. That calculates to a yield of 4.5%.
    Jul 23, 2015. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patience, Cash And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Mike, thanks for sharing your decision making process. I had a little success with MSFT back in April, but I also bought UNP back then so no victory laps over here. :)

    I've decided to part ways with the rest of my GE (I also sold half back in April) and add MMM. I bought some MMM today, but am still holding the GE shares for now.
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Difference Between Total Return Investing And DGI [View article]
    Ted, nice to see that you've become a contributor. Congrats on your first article!
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RoseNose's Adventure To Reacquire Shares Of 3M Company... And Buy Now! [View article]
    Congrats on the first article, Rose! I initiated a "starter" position in MMM today and will watch how things play out before adding.
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Bond Duration Could You Endure? [View article]
    "However, I know it's a favorite in these parts and I have not seen a single person say they were going to sell in light of the credit downgrade. I'm curious, is anyone worried about T's credit rating? If not, why not?"

    I don't wish to speak for Chowder, but it seems to me that the gist of what he's saying is, the downgrade means it's time to pay more attention if you haven't been already. I don't know whether anyone has a portfolio management strategy that advises a sell based on a credit downgrade without considering the context. In T's case, they're implementing a growth strategy based on acquisitions. That, coupled with the fact that T is one of the 2 big dogs in its space, leads many to feel comfortable with continuing to monitor in light of the downgrade (particularly since the company has had some analyst upgrades of late). M* seems to feel the acquisitions are more or less a misadventure, and they even downgraded their stewardship rating to poor. There's a lot of opinion out there on what T is doing.

    As for me, I hold T but it's only about 1.3% of my stock portfolio. I don't mind holding and watching.
    Jul 19, 2015. 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: 6228371 [View article]
    I'm with Paul in that my opinions on the questions you ask don't readily lend themselves to the 1-10 scale. So I'm just going to rank them from most to least important to me.

    Dividends and dividend growth are at the top; it's the foundation of my portfolio. With the bulk of my equities purchases, I'm in the process of building an income stream from high-quality companies. The stream has grown from about $1K in 2012, to ~$4K in 2013, to ~$9,400 in 2014; and I'm going to guesstimate about $14K this year. So we're on track with that and doing well.

    I'd say growth is probably next most important to me, because I also invest in certain equities specifically for their prospects for growth. Some of those companies also happen to be members in good standing of the CCC list, like V, DIS, and CVS.

    Next would be total portfolio value; I track it monthly. I track this only because it feels good to see the numbers go up.

    If by "total return" you mean anything like "beat the market", that would be of the lowest importance to me -- not completely irrelevant but not a strong focus for me. I only monitor whether the stocks I purchased solely for growth are outpacing the S&P 500; occasionally I'll look at it for this dividend growth stock or that, out of curiosity.
    Jul 18, 2015. 08:48 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investing, Picking Stocks And Uncertainty [View article]
    "Regarding point 4), I just find the idea of buying what we 'want' a bit dangerous. There could be amazing stocks that are filtered and excluded beforehand because they don't fit into what we 'like'."

    A number of contributors and commenters here have developed a business plan for their portfolio, wherein they describe the characteristics they're looking for in a potential investment -- in other words, "what they want". The selection of those characteristics is typically informed by knowledge of what makes a company a good one, and what things the investor needs in order to meet his/her particular investing goals.

    There could be amazing stocks that fall outside of this criterion or that, but in defining these criteria, they're seeking to put the odds in their favor. They're in effect saying, "I'm willing to forego the stock with (for example) poor credit ratings that nonetheless outperforms; I can let that one go because experience tells me that companies with non-investment grade credit ratings involve more risk than I'm interested in taking." Or, "I'm willing to let (say) Visa pass by, even though it's a great and solid company, because I need income now, and its yield is too low for me."

    fwiw, although the foundation of my own portfolio is made of dividend-growth stocks, I don't have hard and fast rules about yield, and I hold some that don't pay a dividend at all. But if I buy a dividend payer, I want it to be a dividend increaser as well. Those are the companies whose leadership has the investor in mind, ime.
    Jul 16, 2015. 01:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Beats Indexing; What Beats DGI? [View article]
    DVK, your recollection is similar to mine.

    The prevailing memory I have of his participation here could be characterized as peevish, arrogant, and insulting -- if questioned. When not being challenged in any way, he was articulate and genial. But his anger could be stoked by even the mildest of contrary questioning, and it got the better of him on a number of occasions. Considering his position and career, I often wondered if he was keeping in mind the fact that his comments could come back to haunt him... but then I saw that a number of the more egregious ones had been deleted.
    Jul 16, 2015. 12:54 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M: Three Things To Monitor [View article]
    Another great article, DS.

    I am among the many who have MMM on a watch list, and whenever that happens, it makes me feel as though the price isn't going to go as low as we're all hoping it will!
    Jul 15, 2015. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harry's Plan: Buy, Hold, And Collect [View article]
    Yeah, I agree, companies that did well through both are attractive; it's a tough criterion that definitely puts passing companies in a better light.

    I ask about the screen because I see that many are buying companies that didn't make it through that screen, myself included. So perhaps people are more lenient on one or more of the screen items; for instance, recommended screens I've seen look for debt/equity of <.5 rather than <.4 -- a little less stringent. Or, perhaps people are more concerned about other factors. I'm just interested to hear how people view this screen in relation to their own buying decisions.
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harry's Plan: Buy, Hold, And Collect [View article]
    Very interesting, and the screen run on July 9 yielded some interesting candidates. But curious, anyone have any comment or critique on the screen itself?
    Jul 14, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The Coca-Cola Company Still Have The Recipe For Out-Sized Returns? [View article]
    Right. I don't think it makes sense to knock KO (or MCD) on a blanket "healthy foods" thesis, which is often presented as the death knell for both. They have other issues. Unhealthy foods can still win, and win big.
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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