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Big Thunder

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  • Surviving A Worst-Case Scenario To Become A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    Yeah, I saw your response to kolpin and let it stand in for a response to my post too. :-) Thanks for being willing to put your real experience out there!
    Sep 19 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surviving A Worst-Case Scenario To Become A Dividend Growth Investor [View article]
    "Six years ago, my 'strategy' was to act upon stock tips from buddies and financial magazines. So I like to believe I'm a tad better investor now that I conduct due diligence and actually think before making decisions."

    Mike, I'd be interested to read a follow-up article where you explore the above quote in more detail vis-a-vis GE. What was your DD on GE at the time, how did you monitor the company at the time, and how are your monitoring and DD different today? When might you have decided to sell -- not with 20/20 hindsight, but thinking it through as if you had had the strategy and monitoring habits that you practice today? Do you think you would have added after it bottomed, or left it behind entirely as a dividend cutter?
    Sep 19 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Contenders: 16 Increases Expected By The End Of November [View article]
    I wouldn't mind it if they changed course this time. :-)

    Thanks for posting these articles on expected increases. Always fun to scan through the lists and see some of your tickers!
    Sep 14 07:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Contenders: 16 Increases Expected By The End Of November [View article]
    David, regarding UTX -- my records show me expecting the next raise in March, as they typically have gone 5 quarters between raises.
    Sep 13 10:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Shares Appear Significantly Undervalued From A Dividend Growth Perspective [View article]
    "Two days ago, everything I read about MCD was filled with gloom and doom.

    Well, it is up nearly $3/share since Wednesday's low, and today it was one of the few blue-chip stocks to have a winning day."

    The articles still appear to be full of gloom and doom! But I took advantage of the opportunity on Wed. and added @ 91.10. I've been pleasantly surprised by what has happened since, and couldn't help but notice what you pointed out, Mike -- it was one of a very few in my portfolio that was up yesterday!

    I can't say I added without trepidation; MCD has fallen out of favor with my own kids (aged 13 and 11), and the level of service at our nearest restaurant has been going down noticeably over the last year or so, after having been one of the best run MCD's I'd ever visited. And reading the earnings call transcripts, I see they're testing ideas and so forth, but there's also a sense that they're feeling around in the dark a little bit. But my opinion, they will turn things around.
    Sep 13 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 4% Rule Examined [View article]
    For me, the big problem with the 4% rule is the margin of error. If you get unlucky with your withdrawal rate and the markets as they are, you run out of money but not out of life. The dividend-growth strategy fits far better with my level of comfort as I contemplate the kind of retirement I want to have, and if I get toward the end of life and end up needing lots of expensive care, I haven't been drawing down principal in the meanwhile.

    Awhile back, David Van Knapp wrote an interesting article about the 4% rule having become more like the 3% rule:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Sep 12 05:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Procter & Gamble The Top Dividend Stock To Buy Today? [View article]
    "I don't understand the love for PG. It has underperformed the S&P500 over the past 10 years."

    But it has outperformed the S&P500 over longer terms -- look at 15 years and 20 years -- and has been a solid and consistent performer. It's reliable. It isn't going to knock your socks off with big gains; that's not its gig. For the long-term investor, it's a good, solid pick. Right now I'd wait to see whether shares can eventually be had for <80.
    Sep 12 08:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 High-Growth, High-Return Dividend Names To Consider [View article]
    "I like all 5 of these companies but don't own any because I've never been able to find a good entry valuation."

    I agree, there's plenty to like about all 5 and good entry points are hard to find. DIS, which I own, has had such a terrific march upward. I first started looking at it around 40; didn't buy, and when it got to 45, I thought I'd wait for it to pull back closer to 40. Then when it got to 50, I thought I'd wait for it to pull back to 45. Stop me if you've heard this one before!

    I just see so many positives for this company that I finally bought in at 65, again at 71, and again at 80, and each time I cringed a little at what I was paying. Have not been disappointed, however! Going forward, I'll be looking for those drops below the 50-day SMA. DIS is on a roll.

    I bought V at 179 and again at 200; I believe it has slightly underperformed relative to the S&P500 but I think the prospects going forward are excellent. It made that brief trip back down to 200 in April and I thought about adding, but I was more interested in beefing up my dividend growth portfolio that month and bought LMT, JNJ, PG, PEP, and VTR instead.

    I don't own any of the other 3, but the one I've thought most seriously about is SBUX. They found a way to entrench themselves in people's daily lives, and they continue to have interesting ideas for growth.
    Sep 11 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • History Lessons: Surviving A Recession, Tuning Out Noise And Moving Beyond Mistakes [View article]
    "Hey, we all make a mistake or three. That was one of mine, but it wasn't fatal and it was instructive. I like to think I've profited a lot in the last year, in part because of the lessons I've learned."

    I don't feel much regret about the investing mistakes I've made, and your comment here is most of the reason why. I knew going in that there would be mistakes -- or should I say, "unplanned opportunities to learn". :-)

    btw, nice article, Mike! I would guess that many of us recognize a little piece of ourselves in what you write.
    Sep 5 09:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Problems Within Procter & Gamble's Long-Term Future [View article]
    @Glenn: Yes, I do believe that several of PG's brands are better -- much better -- than the generics, which I explained in a previous post. It is hands-on experience, not advertising, that has led me to this conclusion, which I also explained previously. And there is absolutely no reason to believe that young generics-buyers -- a profile I used to fit -- will not also go seeking better options, as I did.

    I find your contention that "PG is a doomed company" to be ludicrous and unsupported by any fact, but whatever. We are all free to make our own assessments. Best of luck in your investing.
    Aug 19 11:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: A Wide-Moat Stock To Hold Forever [View article]
    "The quality of the product is falling, and a company must have a quality product that consumers will buy and buy again."

    But that's exactly the point: customers *are* buying again and again; they're deeming the quality to be there. If you doubt the quality of the toys, stay away from their toy manufacturing partners, not DIS.

    Well, in any event, no investor is required to own shares in any particular company. Enjoy the proceeds of your rental properties!
    Aug 19 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney: A Wide-Moat Stock To Hold Forever [View article]
    "I sold it all after a trip to Disney with the kids."

    Oh gosh, where to begin. Well, I agree with Minutemen; emotional analysis of the stock. How about the fact that 9 of the top 10 theme parks by attendance are Disney parks, per Wikipedia and sourced from the Themed Entertainment Association:

    1. Magic Kingdom
    2. Tokyo Disneyland
    3. Disneyland
    4. Tokyo DisneySea
    5. Epcot
    6. Disneyland Paris
    7. Animal Kingdom
    8. Hollywood Studios
    9. Universal Studios Japan
    10. California Adventure

    Or maybe the fact that 4 of the top 5 highest grossing animated films were made by Disney or Pixar? Per Wikipedia from Box Office Mojo data:

    1. Frozen
    2. Toy Story 3
    [These 2 are the only 2 animated movies to top $1B in worldwide gross]
    3. The Lion King
    4. Despicable Me 2
    5. Finding Nemo

    Never mind all the other businesses Disney is in. Check the earnings growth; check the revenue growth; check analyst expectations. DIS is a winner on a roll.
    Aug 19 08:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Problems Within Procter & Gamble's Long-Term Future [View article]
    "Brands and advertising mostly create illusion. Smart phones and the knowledge source that is the web dispel those illusions."

    I suspect you didn't understand my previous post. Experience dispels illusion (and frankly, trumps online reviews). Young people will gain experience, and many of them will find what I have found -- that there are clear instances where paying for the premium brand makes sense. PG makes those kinds of brands.

    "PG is a doomed company."

    lol. I don't think you've thought as hard about these products as I have.
    Aug 17 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Problems Within Procter & Gamble's Long-Term Future [View article]
    @kevinconway -- Thanks for your response; interesting info.
    Aug 17 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Problems Within Procter & Gamble's Long-Term Future [View article]
    @kevinconway -- What about the retail side of the question; wouldn't fewer iterations of the brand equal less shelf space?
    Aug 16 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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