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Big Thunder

Big Thunder
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  • Target CEO removal wasn’t just about the data breach [View news story]
    "The reason I have been persistant is because people like both of you just want to brush this aside."

    Hooray for your persistence but I have no idea how you came to the conclusion that someone who is reading and questioning is therefore brushing aside concerns. If I were brushing aside concerns, I wouldn't bother to ask questions, now would I? You've said some provocative things that I have not heard elsewhere, neither here nor among the published analysis elsewhere. As I said previously, publish your analysis of TGT's move into Canada and I will read it.

    "but that will not deter me from providing info to people whom have a better RISK management perspective to their investing."

    Your comments have provided facts already known to the investing community plus a soupçon of innuendo. Exactly how would that help people manage their investment risk?
    May 6 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target CEO removal wasn’t just about the data breach [View news story]
    "Because it seems to me that a lot of US investors do not realy know what is going on in Canada. ... Why should I keep info to myself?... I know far more about Canadian retail than likely anyone else on here."

    Then I would encourage you to contribute an article on TGT's Canadian misadventure. It's fine to be a TGT bear, but when you appear in the comment stream of every TGT news item or article with ominous information you've heard from your insider friends (that is unverifiable by us, the audience), you begin to create an image for yourself that maybe you don't intend to create. To my eye, it appears that TGT is some kind of bete noire for you -- it feels personal, or emotions-driven, or motivated, not dispassionate.
    May 6 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target CEO removal wasn’t just about the data breach [View news story]
    "I have been talking about these problems for months..."

    Yes, I've noticed that. It seems like whenever I read anything on SA about TGT, there you are! And it's gotten to the point where I've started to wonder, why is that?
    May 6 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Effect Of Dividends On Stock Prices: Is There A Connection? [View article]
    Dave, thanks for your contribution to the discussion. I will admit that I'm getting Swedroe fatigue at this point. But the cooler-head back-and-forth has probably helped refined some people's thinking on how they want to invest, so you know, there's that.

    It seems to me that if you want to hold only high-quality companies, not the whole-magilla approach of index investing, then there will almost certainly be dividends coming your way. I ran a screen on Value Line searching for all stocks ranked 1 or 2 for safety (per VL: "The safety ranking is a quality rank ... stocks ranked 1 or 2 are most suitable for conservative investors") and a financial rating of A or better -- two measures that in tandem are indicative of quality, to my way of thinking. There were 261 resulting companies; of those, only 46 paid a dividend of less than 1% (and just 26 pay no dividend at all).

    I own 2 of those -- ESRX and V -- as well as DIS, currently yielding just over 1%. Being in the accumulation phase, I'm okay with making room in the portfolio for high-quality companies whose value is more in earnings growth rather than dividend growth. But given that somewhere around 90%+ of the highest quality companies as determined by VL are dividend payers, it makes perfect sense in my view to construct a strategy centered on high quality companies that pay a reliable dividend.

    Just out of curiosity, I ran the following screen on VL:

    1) Safety Rank: 1,2
    2) Financial Strength: A++,A+,A
    3) Dividend Yield: Min.>= '2.5' and Max. <= ''
    4) Dividend Growth 10-Year: Min.>= '8' and Max. <= ''

    It yielded 41 companies (ADP, AJG, APD, AVA, BAX, BNS.TO, CAJ, CFR, CM.TO, COP, CVX, ETN, GIS, INTC, JNJ, KMB, KO, LEG, LMT, MAT, MCD, NVS, OMI, OXY, PAYX, PEP, PG, RTN, RY.TO, SJI, SRE, SYY, TEVA, TGT, TOT, TRP, UL, UPS, WEC, WM, XOM -- note that not all are on David Fish's CCC list), some of which don't come up often in discussions of dividend growth companies, but many of which are the "usual suspects". There's a reason so many DGIs own CVX, JNJ, KO, MCD, PG, etc.!
    May 4 08:23 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is 'Quality' In A Stock? [View article]
    "Right now I have SO, D, WEC and I need one more probably from the western U.S."

    Maybe AVA?
    Apr 25 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The REIT Way To Invest In A Wide Moat Of Dividend Repeatability [View article]
    2bears, let me quote Morningstar's analysis on Coke's moat, which I think sums it up pretty well:

    "Coca-Cola's massive scale and global distribution network are the key sources of the company's wide economic moat. ... Furthermore, in many markets, Coke operates a direct distribution system, whereby its distributors physically place products onto retailers' shelves. This access to retailers gives Coke a significant competitive advantage over second-tier manufacturers that distribute through third parties. In our view, the financial resources required to replicate Coke's direct distribution footprint act as a barrier to entry. Additionally, the Coca-Cola brand is arguably one of the strongest and most enduring brands in the world."
    Apr 25 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is 'Quality' In A Stock? [View article]
    "To me high quality also includes brand equity that translates into pricing power, as well as reputation which can be accessed by means of the Fortune list of most respected companies or by looking at"

    Yes, I have to agree with this. It would be interesting to see Q scores for the companies in my portfolio. I hold what I sometimes think of as the trifecta of great American brands that people all over the world know -- KO, MCD, and DIS.
    Apr 25 07:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is 'Quality' In A Stock? [View article]
    "I'm not surprised that GIS almost didn't make the list. It probably shouldn't be in my portfolio. I consider it the lowest quality stock I own. (I sleep well because of that fact.)"

    Yeah, when GIS is the lowest quality stock in your portfolio, that's definitely a SWAN situation!

    DD, your comment had me looking at my notes because I also hold GIS. I see that Value Line gives it a 1 for safety and an A+ for financial strength, and while S&P's credit rating for it is BBB+ as you note, it also gives it an A for quality. Per David Fish's CCC list, its 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-yr DGR are all right around 10%. That's a pretty good profile for a lowest quality holding!
    Apr 25 07:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is 'Quality' In A Stock? [View article]
    Thanks Dave for this interesting look at quality. I agree, the term does often get used without further clarification, as if it's assumed the audience all agrees on what constitutes quality.

    In my spreadsheet of stock holdings, I have a tab dedicated to quality. On it, I list each ticker I hold, its Value Line Safety and Financial Strength ratings, its S&P Quality Ranking and Credit Rating, and its Morningstar credit rating. I think when you have VL, S&P, and M* all pretty much saying similar things about a company's creditworthiness and overall quality, you can feel pretty good about it being a part of your portfolio.

    Every now and again, I'll log into Value Line and have the screener show me the list of every company with a safety rating of 1 or 2 and a financial strength rating of A++, A+, or A. The last time I did this was in early March, and it yielded 254 companies, of which I own 36 (and 22 of those 36 are ranked 1, A++). I like quality! I credit chowder with that.
    Apr 24 11:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth On Hiatus For Darden Restaurants? [View article]
    "Better to break up on strength of business rather than because you need to to satisfy activist shareholders."

    Agreed. Unfortunately for DRI, the issues extend beyond activist shareholders.
    Apr 23 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth On Hiatus For Darden Restaurants? [View article]
    Eric, thanks for this look at DRI. I sold my DRI back in Sept. but have kept my eye on it. After I sold, it went up handily from my sell price. That is definitely irksome, but it looks like the concerns that caused me to sell are being realized. (I bought BAX instead and that has worked out pretty well.)
    Apr 23 06:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unplanned Early Retirement, Part 1 - Strategy, Stability, And Moving Forward [View article]
    Nice introductory article; I'm looking forward to reading about your experience and your investment choices.
    Apr 17 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Stuff, Different Year: Should Shareholders Stick With IBM? [View article]
    Thanks DoctoRx, I appreciate your thoughts and analysis, and your clear and straightforward presentation of both.
    Apr 17 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    "I keep reading about the Quality Rating but cannot find it on the S&P Capital IQ Report. It might be helpful. Any clues as to how to get it would be appreciated."

    I'm looking at a pdf of the S&P Capital IQ stock report for PG, and the quality ranking is near the top on the right under Key Stock Statistics. On the HTML version, scroll down past Investment Rationale/Risk; it's on the right under Quantitative Evaluations. Quality ranking of A+, natch.

    If you're asking how to get access to S&P Capital IQ stock reports, many public libraries offer free online access to it. My county library system does, and all I had to do was establish an online account. If your brokerage is Fidelity, you can get them through their site as well.
    Apr 17 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Stuff, Different Year: Should Shareholders Stick With IBM? [View article]
    This analysis reflects my own concerns about IBM, and there has been plenty of critical commentary generally on articles about the company.

    The question mark I have is that analysts seem pretty positive on IBM. Seven of the 10 analysts covering the company within Fidelity's StarMine rating system give it a buy or outperform rating (the other 3 neutral), with a collective score of 9.4 out of 10. The 32 analysts reflected in FAST Graphs' estimated earnings and return calculator also look favorably on the company, projecting decent growth in the coming few years.
    Apr 17 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment