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adamfeuerstein

adamfeuerstein
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  • Puma Is As Expensive As MannKind Is Cheap [View article]
    Hey George -- You missed this column I wrote on PBYI

    http://bit.ly/1th93Zy

    Tony P. writes, "Can you explain the bull thesis on Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) ?"

    Sure, this is easy. To own and be bullish on Puma means you believe CEO Alan Auerbach will sell the company -- meaning its only asset, the breast cancer drug neratinib -- to Big Pharma. Auerbach sold his previous company, Cougar Biotechnology, to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) , making his shareholders lots of money in the process. Many of these same investors are backing Auerbach again in Puma, believing he can pull off another big takeout.

    I can't predict Auerbach's chances for success. Like Puma, Cougar developed a single product, the prostate cancer drug Zytiga. J&J bought Cougar and Zytiga for $1 billion. The drug's only competition in prostate cancer was Medivation's (MDVN) Xtandi. Puma's situation is a bit different. Neratinib is an oral inhibitor of the HER2 protein found in breast cancer. If approved, neratinib would have a lot of competition, most notably Roche (RHHBY) breast cancer drugs Herceptin, Perjeta and Kadcyla.

    Last month, I detailed one investor's math to justify Puma's $7 billion valuation, which is where the company is valued today. The trick for Auerbach is to convince a suitor to pay $9 billion to 11 billion for Puma, assuming a typical 30% to 50% buyout premium for biotech stocks. I guess it can be done, but it's not going to be easy.
    Nov 25, 2014. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Genervon ALS drug shows encouraging results [View news story]
    If you had something even semi-intelligent to offer about any stocks, perhaps Doug and the rest of the Seeking Alpha team would take you seriously. Instead, you spout accusations without a shred of evidence.
    Oct 22, 2014. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The State Of MannKind [View article]
    Funds were covering small-cap biotech shorts because of margin calls and to raise cash today. That's why the XBI (weighted towards small cap biotech's) was up while the rest of the market, including the IBB (weighted more towards large cap biotech's), was tanking.
    Oct 15, 2014. 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The State Of MannKind [View article]
    George -- At various times over the past two years, you have wowed your retail investor audience with MNKD price targets of $27.50 (the takeover scenario), $28 (the partnership scenario), $27.42 (the go it alone scenario) and $34.53
    Oct 15, 2014. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio's Latest Financing Abuses Its Shareholders: Is The Charade Over? [View article]
    Larry Smith accuses other people of stock manipulation and financial crimes when he's the one who was barred from the securities industry for breaking the law.

    You can read all about Larry's transgressions here --> http://bit.ly/ZUMen3

    Jim Cramer hasn't been barred from the securities industry, but you have, Larry. Cramer is wildly successful and influential.
    Oct 11, 2014. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio's Latest Financing Abuses Its Shareholders: Is The Charade Over? [View article]
    Yes, you're wrong.
    Oct 9, 2014. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio's Latest Financing Abuses Its Shareholders: Is The Charade Over? [View article]
    "If DC-VAX-L fails" is the language in the NWBO agreement which pays Cognate (Linda Powers) $3 million or $5 million.

    I remain very confident that DC-Vax-L will fail. DC-VAX Direct is even more ridiculous. The company will be bankrupt and delisted before Direct reaches a pivotal clinical trial.

    There's some much outside interest in both products? Hmm... NWBO is an orphan adrift on its own -- no partners, no real investors. NWBO can't even fulfill the promise to recruit additional hospitals to the long-delayed and infinitely revised phase III study. The company has already made a mess and mockery of the Direct study, publicly rebuked by MD Anderson.

    Move on...
    Oct 9, 2014. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio's Latest Financing Abuses Its Shareholders: Is The Charade Over? [View article]
    DCVax-Direct? DCVax-Direct is simply a slurry of off-the-shelf, un-modified dendritic cells injected into a tumor. You could probably inject grapefruit juice into the tumor and get the same result.

    Thanks for letting me know the latest NWBO bull thesis. It's even more pathetic than I ever realized.
    Oct 9, 2014. 06:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio's Latest Financing Abuses Its Shareholders: Is The Charade Over? [View article]
    Hawk - Are you me? Am I you? Are we.... us? If you are me, can you please take out the garbage? Thanks.
    Oct 8, 2014. 07:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics Valuation = $0 [View article]
    Oh right, I forgot. The surgery fairy pays the doctor.

    You might want to look again at Dendreon's Provenge COGS and total op-ex.
    Sep 26, 2014. 07:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics Valuation = $0 [View article]
    Nice work. You're probably under-estimating the manufacturing costs of DC Vax-L because it requires a tumor sample from each patient as part of the manufacturing process.

    Provenge only requires each patient to undergo leukapharesis. DC-Vax-L requires a sample of the brain tumor plus leukapharesis. Logistical nightmare. Huge costs. Will never scale.

    Even with decent volume, Dendreon's margins were meh. NWBO will never get DC-Vax-L approved, but even if the impossible happened, the business is doomed.

    Dendreon is a champ compared to NWBO.

    Again, nice work.
    Sep 26, 2014. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Northwest Biotherapeutics Stock In Turmoil, But Not For Long [View article]
    You're not donating to cancer research by investing in NWBO, you're setting your cash on fire. Nicely done.
    Sep 24, 2014. 08:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Northwest Biotherapeutics Stock In Turmoil, But Not For Long [View article]
    Ha! Again, Smith's lack of functional brain cells is stunning. I'm sure Linda is scouring the earth for a brain tumor patient who can be duped into paying for DCVax. Maybe a rich Russian oligarch will fall for it. Then, NWBO can issue a press release when his check clears. That will be so exciting!

    Sorry, Larry. Early access and compassionate use are the same, and they're both meaningless.

    Keep trying!
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Northwest Biotherapeutics Stock In Turmoil, But Not For Long [View article]
    NO! the UK and Germany have done no such thing. How many companies can you name which generate significant revenue from compassionate use of an unapproved drug? Let me help you: None. Zero. It doesn't happen. It won't happen. Doctors are not going to prescribe an unapproved drug. There is no compelling reason to use DCVax under compassionate use because no credible data exist demonstrating any benefit.

    The only reason NWBO has pursued these meaningless compassionate use designations in Germany and the UK is to throw up a smokescreen to hide the fact that it cannot complete the phase III study.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Northwest Biotherapeutics Stock In Turmoil, But Not For Long [View article]
    You don't resize a study without a reason. And the DCVax study wasn't just resized, it was radically altered by increasing by 125% the number of PFS events required for the final analysis. If you believe these changes were made without an interim analysis, you know nothing about clinical trial design and conduct and should not be invested in biotech or drug stocks.

    NWBO issued two press releases in which it stated clearly, definitively, that an interim efficacy analysis was underway. It's been almost a year, where are the data?
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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