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Barbairic

Barbairic
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  • GLD: Bulls Are Playing A Dangerous Game [View article]
    If I was a European, I'd be concerned about the euro. German 10yr now at 1% and the European community appears to be deflating. There's problem in the Ukraine, although I don't know if Europeans are super worried, that's Ukraine and it regional, probably won't affect a German or Frenchman. But they are worried none the less. If I was to move my money out of euros, where would I put it? In USDs? Maybe, but the Europeans are not big fans of America, still perhaps put some money there. Where else? Gold perhaps? They are bigger believers in gold than Americans. Is this an idea to consider? Could euro money flows power gold higher?
    Aug 18 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    My understanding of the QEs is that they buy treasuries (or equivalents) AND the Toxic Mortgage Backed Securities from the banks that resulted from the housing bubble. This has made the banks solvent and the country has taken on these bad loans and they show on the fed balance sheet. In turn, the banks have left this money with the FED as reserves and are getting paid a 1/4 point for it. Money velocity is very low which is further evidence that it remains parked at the FED and of course the FED balance sheet shows this, having risen from about 1T to something over 4T today.

    The part I don't get, is how does this money find it's way into Wall Street? Once that is explained, how can you measure it?
    Aug 5 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Barron's Is Wrong On $75 Oil [View article]
    I agree with this article, BUT the elephant in the room for me is the futures contracts. You look forward a few years and futures are trading at $77 a barrel. These numbers are set by very shrewd people, any explanation for this?
    Apr 3 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    @L Fuller
    The algo volume point is extremely important. Thanks for that! I didn't even consider it till you pointed it out. If a buyer perceives that it will be difficult to find a seller then they won't buy. Most don't perceive that algo volume is a big piece of the volume. Should that perception change, then look out!

    @strike
    Agreed on Crimea. The outcome of Crimea going to Russia with no bullets being used is the likely one. Putin is smart and looking good in Russia and abroad is very important for him. A bloodless acquisition of key territory is the best outcome for him, us and the Ukraine. As to investing, buying Europe right now appears to be a good idea (something like Hersey and Novartis).
    Mar 8 09:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On The Way To Higher Stock Prices, Something Suddenly Happened [View article]
    A makes me think article, thanks for that. There is a lot political and economic strife as you so well point out. These strifes always get resolved eventually and often by way of a black swan. There are a lot of pots bubbling in the world today and one or more of them could black swan resolve themselves.
    Mar 2 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources: High-Stakes Hide And Seek [View article]
    I'm confused. There was a 10,000 ton bulk sample done in 2013. How does that fit in with this article?
    Feb 28 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Very difficult, nigh near impossible to remove money from a money system that is designed to expand. The only way to contract reserve money is by burning up tax dollars and that won't happen ever.
    Feb 24 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zulauf pans China, likes gold and Treasurys [View news story]
    China's rolling over and gold is washed out. So short china and go long gold miners? I thought china had been the big gold buyer? If there is a reset over there what happens to gold price? It sure got slammed over here in 2008 along with all the miners.
    Jan 19 03:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources Bulk Sample Results Completed: Last Tranche Of Sampling Shows Even Higher Grades Than The Previous Results [View article]
    My previous posts might be repetitive because my first post went to moderation and didn't post an hour later. Possibly because I spoke of share price? So I've reposted in two sections. THis second one discusses the share price. By my analysis, PVG is one of the few projects that is profitable with gold less than $1000. If the disagreement with the outside consultants had not occurred, I think PVG would be a $10+ bill today. But that is not the case. Present forces holding the stock price back are: 1) anyone who bought in the $3 to $4 range recently is sitting pretty and should be taking some $ of the table, and 2) at $6, PVG is still underwater for many shareholders. There are a couple weeks of tax loss selling to go and this will weigh on the share price. IMO I think PVG share price is stuck right around here till the new year. If gold shows any strength next year, then PVG has a very good chance of then trading for a $10bill.
    Dec 13 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources Bulk Sample Results Completed: Last Tranche Of Sampling Shows Even Higher Grades Than The Previous Results [View article]
    PVG's nov 8 news release stated that the bulk sample would be processed from lowest to highest grade. Hence the improved grade was expected and IMO it is very good.

    I'm not a geo or mining engineer and if someone else is would most appreciate them weighing in on the following statements: What these results also demonstrate is the ability to know in advance what is good and what is not good grade. As the deposit is veiny in nature, the most efficient mining method would be to mine along the veins. If quality rock can be easily determined, then the production is most efficient. Question is was the Bulk sample obtained such that the miners knew what they were blasting out as they went along or was it determined after? Would this information be easy to determine as one mines the vein? It appears they did have a handle on the grade of the bulk samples, the question boils down to how efficiently is that determined and can it be applied to production?
    Dec 13 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pretium Resources Bulk Sample Results Completed: Last Tranche Of Sampling Shows Even Higher Grades Than The Previous Results [View article]
    The nov 8 news release stated that the bulk sample was being processed from lowest to highest grade. Thus, the higher grade for the last ~2000 tons was expected. These are great results! Equally important is that they are able to determine the grade quality of the bulk sample material as it was mined. To me this skill is very important for production. VOK is a veiny deposit and being able to mine your way along the vein is the efficient way to mine it. I'm not a geo or mining engineer, hopefully someone more knowledgable than me could weigh in on this.

    As to PVG price at $6, 2 things: 1) sell on history - anyone who bought this with a $3 something price is sitting pretty and 2) yr end tax loss sales. At $6 there are many still underwater. I suspect the price will be stuck here till year end, there are just too many reasons for sales right now.

    If the mess with the consultants didn't happen, PVG would likely be a $10+ bill right about now. Of all the gold cos I've analyzed, this is one of the few projects that looks like it can make money with a sub $1000 gold price. Any strength with gold in 2014 and I do think there's a good chance to collect that $10 bill.
    Dec 13 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Snapback rally for Pretium after positive results [View news story]
    Held my nose and bought some of this today.

    That is one hell of a drill hole they reported! 26m at 334gms/ton. even if the hole followed the vein the whole way, which i gather is likely, it is still a spectacular data point. I'm not a geologist, but a back of the envelope calc is: A cubic meter of rock weighs around 2.5 to 2.9 tons depending on the kind of rock. 334gms/ton = 10.7 oz. 10.7 x 2.5 tons = 26.9 oz/ cu meter. The hole is 26meters long. Assuming the ore surrounding the hole is similar for a 1 sq m circular slice, then the hole represents good confidence for 26.9 x 26 = 700oz. 700 x $1350 = $950K. The ore represented by that one single hole is worth nearly $1m! Each cubic meter of rock is worth $36K!

    The controversy over the resource analysis is for sure an issue. BUT, with data points like today's i have to think there's something there that can be profitable. I'm of course resting my case that the drill data is correct even though the current resource modelling may not be.
    Oct 24 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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