Ray Meadows

Chesapeake Energy Unlikely To Remain this Cheap

The press release shows production was up 15% over Q3 2007 not down. The MTM hedge gain is really just a reversal of the June loss so its best ignored. The key to this company's value is figuring out the value of all its unproved reserves (i.e. the leaseholds) for the long term gas price. Tricky for short term traders - hence the low valuation right now while current gas prices are low. Since CHK can materially affect supply over the period of their hedges, my bet is on them.

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

I think there is a reasonable probability that they are correct - certainly in direction if not magnitude. What they will get for this call is credibility with clients and investors that they are good risk managers, not just cheerleaders for being long. If they're wrong - well they were still being prudent about managing risk. I see little downside to their call from a client relations perspective and lots of upside.

Focus Funds: Does Concentration of Risk Improve Returns?

"Does concentration of risk improve returns?" is really not a very good question as it stands. Statistically the answer must be no if you have a large enough data set. Concentration of risk only improves returns if you have a manager with real skill. Warren Buffet is right and when we talk about "average" mutual fund managers then by definition we are talking about those who do not know how to outperform and so they may as well diversify to keep risk low and only lag benchmarks by their expense ratio (on average). It is obvious that any large study such as the one cited must have these findings whether looking at forcused funds or diversified funds. Over the last 9 years I've managed to earn a cumulative return of 398% - by never holding more stocks than I can truly understand and follow closely (i.e. < 40). Every other manager I know of with a similar track record has a similarly concentrated portfolio. Perhaps that is the more interesting study: of the managers with demonstrated skill, how many use a conscentrated risk strategy. My guess is it would be north of 80%.

Upstream MLPs and Canadian Royalty Trusts: High Return, High Risk?

Canroys revenue is in US dollars and costs are in Canadian. Unless they have swapped US for Canadian equal to all future revenue, a weaker US dollar is unambiguously bad for them. Distributions and stock prices come from profits not the other way around.

Patient Thornburg Buyers Will Be Handsomely Rewarded

When financial companies lose their equity, it reduces the amount of assets they can hold. Lower assets = lower earnings = lower dividends = lower value.

Is E*Trade a Bargain?

I suggest taking a look at their balance sheet before accepting their earnings guidance. They may end up with losses in the next few quarters - depending on how they do their accounting.

Is E*Trade a Bargain?

I suggest taking a look at their balance sheet before accepting their earnings guidance. They may end up with losses in the next few quarters - depending on how they do their accounting.