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    • Sat Jun 28th 10:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Double, Futures Contracts Flat & Falling: Where's the Excessive Speculation?
      Damn quote marks really get messed up by this site. Upon rereading my response, I realize my food comment doesn't really address your question. Obviously, poor people not getting what they need (food, oil, water) because they can't afford it is not good. But if the supply/demand situation is going to make that happen in the future (perhaps without much warning, and perhaps in a much more dramatic way than the high prices we are experiencing), I can't help but think that high oil prices are a wake-up call for all of the world to REALLY work on a solution, so it's better prepared for the time when there absolutely is not enough oil to go around. The US has done nothing for decades to address energy in a meaningful way, and so perhaps crazy oil prices will finally get people to do something. And just look at the effect high oil is having on consumers -- people aren't buying gas hogs like they were 5 years ago.

      So back to your example -- if everyone loses weight because there isn't much food around, that may seem bad. However, if that gets people up off their asses to figure out ways to provide for more food, than maybe it's a good think in the long run for society.
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    • Sat Jun 28th 10:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Double, Futures Contracts Flat & Falling: Where's the Excessive Speculation?
      @ ICANDOITDON

      Thanks for your response. Most of what you say makes sense to me, though I do have a couple of questions/issues:




      "as to why those with my view don't join the ranks of speculators and make a fortune shorting oil? because it is a dangerous game. if israel attacks iran tomorrow..not an outlier event by any means...oil probaby goes to $200 and shorts would get killed. that's why. predicting the crash isn't difficult...but predicting the timing is a fool's game."

      But aren't the specific risks of shorting oil that you list the very same (and real) issues that push oil up beyond what you feel is the "proper" price for oil? As long as these risks exist, isn't it a normal market function to push oil up above what you call the "fundamental"... price?

      It seems you want oil to be at a "non-speculative&... price that reflects current supply and demand, but completely ignores what people perceive as future supply and demand as well as potential risks to the oil market.





      "as for high oil prices forcing conservation, i suppose so. by that logic, however, if we coudn't afford food we'd all lose weight too...is that good?

      The difference is that oil is a limited commodity (at least, that is what most of the geological community seems to believe), whereas food can be grown, it spoils, etc. If there was a finite amount of food and there didn't seem to be enough to go around, I think it would make sense for people not to eat beyond the point of satiation.
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    • Fri Jun 27th 09:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Double, Futures Contracts Flat & Falling: Where's the Excessive Speculation?
      I certainly am ignorant in my knowledge compared to most of you. But what I don't understand about the "bubble" is:

      1) If so many of you experts are sure it is a giant bubble, aren't you all going to make a killing by (speculatively) shorting oil and waiting for the bubble to burst? And doesn't shorting put downward pressure on the price? I don't understand why speculation only goes one way, and I can't understand where all the upward speculative pressure is coming from as oil gets higher than just about everyone thought it would this year... Are that many people getting on this elevator just because they see it going up, rather than seeing fundamental reasons that oil should be going up?

      2) Capping leverage makes sense to me in every market. Again, I am no expert, but I really don't understand how leverage helps any market function better, it seems more like a financial tool that ends up causing market problems (such as bubbles).

      3) Speculation seems necessary in all free markets. Sure, you don't want the uninformed masses piling into a market wreaking havoc, and I guess that's what many of you say has happened with oil (I have no clue if that is accurate or not). With speculation, futures contracts, etc., events that have yet to actually affect the supply chain can be taken into account. That seems like an important process keeping markets fluid, helping companies control future costs, and allow those with enough insight to plan ahead. Can speculation be limited to keep other traders out of the oil market? I don't know...

      I still believe that high oil, while causing a lot of pain today, may be for the longterm good, as it drives exploration, conservation, and alternative energy development -- all necessary with the growth of energy consuming people in the world. High oil also brings to the forefront that the US needs a meaningful energy policy, something that has been lacking for 30+ years. I think we need these types of serious problems to wake everyone up and understand that something needs to be done to address the world's projected energy needs.

      Even if $140 oil is a bubble today, I believe it won't be tomorrow. The US Energy Department sees oil going much higher in coming years, and doesn't seem to think $140 is that much higher than would be expected. With a world population of oil consumers that grows faster than the oil supply, it will take many years before alternative energy and conservation can make much of a dent on demand. At least that's the opinion of this ignoramus.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Speculator Myth
      Michael Levy, are you going to copy and paste your "10 Reasons" on every discussion today? Do you really think it's that great? I'm getting really tired of repeatedly scrolling past it.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 11:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Solution to the Global Petroleum Crisis
      Amen to Matthew Goldseth's comment!
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    • Thu Jun 26th 10:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cheap and Green: Homebuilding Trends [Housing Tracker]
      Great, I have a house with solar panels covering the roof, so it is good to know it will help me sell it some day (which I assumed would be the case). What I want to know is, how much of my solar investment will be recouped in the selling price? I read the Sun Power press release and it doesn't mention the pricing aspect (which, admittedly, would be hard to calculate). If houses are selling faster, but aren't selling for amounts that recoups the high costs of the solar panels, then one can see why the free solar benefit would be of interest to buyers.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 10:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Double, Futures Contracts Flat & Falling: Where's the Excessive Speculation?
      Damn, I wish I hadn't made so many typos in my rush to make my above point.

      I think I'm trying to say that high oil prices might cause some pain now, but by keeping oil prices down by some artificial means (not that it could even be done with a global commodity), the long term effects will be much more painful. We need to try to reduce Western oil consumption for many many important reasons, and the high price of oil helps us move in that direction sooner rather than later. As long as oil is reasonably priced for consumers, there is no action to conserve or move to other energy sources.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 10:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Prices Double, Futures Contracts Flat & Falling: Where's the Excessive Speculation?
      Unlike most people here, I'm no expert on oil or markets. But a couple of common sense reactions to "10 Reasons" come to mind...

      1) If Oil were $40-$80, wouldn't consumer keep up excessive demand, thereby bringing the dire effects of peak oil to us even sooner? At least the high prices are pushing people to stop buying vehicles that get poor gas mileage. Hi oil prices also drive more exploration and developmet alternative energy (neither makes financial sense if oil is too low). To me, the high prices make the overall energy market work to our long run benefit -- lower oil prices artificially, and that will cause bigger problems in the future.

      2) Sure, maybe there is plenty of gas making it to stations today. But if informed oil buyers (and the US Energy Department) believe there will be a shortage in the coming decade, it seems reasonable for the free market to take that into account when pricing oil today. Clearly the price of oil will be skyrocketing in the coming decade when demand overtakes supply. What is it you want? Are we supposed to keep oil at $40-$70 until suddenly there isn't enough oil, then suddenly it go to $250?

      Just my layman's reaction.
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    • Wed Jun 18th 09:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SoCal Home Prices Continue to Plumb New Lows
      "As shown below, prices really started to drop late last summer, so, once fall arrives the annual declines should ease up."

      I'm not sure I understand why you believe declines will ease up in fall. Am I missing an obvious reason? You sound fairly confident in this timing prediction.
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    • Mon Jun 16th 01:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My Crude Oil Futures Strategy
      Nate C said: "But if you are investing in oil at $100 you are a sheep which will get slaughtered when this asset bubble collapses."
      As time has shown, anyone who invested in $100 oil at the time you made your statement would have made a very nice profit in a few months. Good call, Nate, you're a genius! Looks like us "sheep" are a lot smarter than you are.
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    • Fri Jun 6th 09:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calling a Housing Bottom
      Regarding #3 -- Widespread speculation would have been much more difficult with better lending practices (which is tied to the subprime lending).

      BTW, I think many (reasonable) people were able to call the market top fairly accurately here in Los Angeles. I believe my next door neighbor sold at the perfect peak, as I would have too, had I seen my home merely as an investment. Maybe this has lead to a false sense of ability on my part, but I do hope to be able to see when the market is near bottom.

      Most people here seem to agree that the market has yet to bottom out, are you saying we are all crazy to think we can see that?
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    • Fri May 30th 11:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Affordability Index: Surprise, It's a Buyer's Market
      I assume the title of this article was sarcasm, since you'd have to have your head in the sand on Mars to not know what is up with the housing market... Which would that, duh, User 26737 is too dense to get obvious sarcasm.
      View article »
    • Fri May 23rd 09:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales
      The title of this article is "The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales." We can go back and forth about a current bubble with oil, but anyone who thinks we have plenty of reasonably accessible oil for our growing world of oil consumers is mistaken. And in the distant future, when the day comes that we are able to find enough alternate energy sources and storage methods to significantly limit the burning of oil, there are still plenty of significant uses for oil. I guess a lot of you must be short on oil right now, since you sound so certain. Even if a bubble bursts, I believe prices will be up again soon enough.
      View article »
    • Fri May 23rd 09:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Uranium: Red Hot Yellow Cake
      Of course, the other incentive for replacing the fossil fuels powered vehicle fleet"\ is to stop sending so many Western dollars to countries who's populace wants to do harm to Western countries. Cutting our appetite for oil is important for so many reasons, it's amazing to me that very little has been done to make it happen. I won't say it has anything to do with the leaders of the united states being so involved in oil.
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 23:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Netflix's Roku is Doomed to Fail
      I guess I'll pile on and say that I agree with the commenter's sentiments, which is also the majority sentiment on my favorite gadget blog -- that this is a very interesting product by Netflix. I currently have a Netflix DVD subscription, and with a paltry $100 investment I can add unlimited, instant downloads of 1000's of movies and TV show to watch on my living room TV. One big overlooked rental segment is esteemed series (HBO, Showtime, etc.) which would normally constitute many DVD rentals, but now an entire series can be watched for no additional outlay other than this inexpensive hardware. And not that this is huge, but Mac users are not able to stream Netflix movies to their computers, so this let's them in on the instant game. And, of course, once someone buys a box, they will have more reason not to cancel their monthly Netflix subscriptions.
      View article »
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