Seeking Alpha

stu_s

stu_s
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View stu_s' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Update: Michael Kors Shares Tank On Earnings Announcement As Expected [View article]
    I get it but you don't. You're even more detached from reality than the last time.

    As store growth rate slows down, SS growth is the other critical driver, not icing on the cake. SS growth of 0%. Seriously? I challenge you to find another retailer with 0% comps.

    Feb 17, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Michael Kors Shares Tank On Earnings Announcement As Expected [View article]
    As I showed you before, KORS' number of stores has been increasing so fast that opening the same # of stores per year means that the percentage increase in total stores year to year is slowing drastically. Do the arithmetic!

    According to Yahoo Finance, analysts' expectations for EPS growth are 31% this year, and 11.5% next year. 18% growth in 2016 is not within the realm of reality.

    More importantly, the market simply doesn't believe analysts' estimates. You can easily see this by looking at the PEG ratio of .89--you almost never see a PEG of less than 1. Despite multiple disappointing quarters and outlooks--especially bombing out in the last, key Xmas, quarter, analysts' estimates have hardly budged over the last 90 days. In fact, they've RISEN for FY15: Now $4.29 vs $4.18.

    KORS peaked at $98 in Feb 2014 and is now $73. Your case is that the market is wrong for having sold off KORS and that it's a screaming Buy because it has a great outlook. No matter how many times you assert that the market is wrong and you are right, the stock keeps getting cheaper! Instead of continuing to assert your unrealistic expectations, you should do a serious analysis of the Xmas quarter and revise your outlook. The market is sometimes wrong, but it takes a lot more than repeating your impossible calculation for F16 and asserting the market is wrong.

    KORS is no longer a hyper growth story is earnings are going to grow 31% this year and 11.5% next. My guesstimate is for mid high single digit growth long term growth rate. KORS' TTM PE is 17.6X, almost the same as the average retailer's 18X (based on the XRT retailer ETF.) So it may be fairly valued—but only if the bad news is over and expectations don't get reduced further. Being in the fickle fashion business, KORS is arguably riskier than other retailers.

    Given all the uncertainties, buying KORS is a crap shoot. A much less risky stock to consider buying after a big selloff is RL. Much safer would be to buy XRT. If you want to buy deep value stocks, there's an excellent ETF, RPV.
    Feb 15, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Michael Kors Shares Tank On Earnings Announcement As Expected [View article]
    You are getting more and more detached from reality. Your magical thinking (look it up) and lack of cognitive dissonance (look it up) continues to allow you to "think" that you are right and the entire market is wrong, even as the stock price continues to go down.

    Why don't you man up and write an article about the company's latest quarter and outlook?

    Keynes said that when the facts change, I change my mind. Reagan said that facts are stupid things. Looks like you are Ronnie's camp.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Michael Kors Shares Tank On Earnings Announcement As Expected [View article]
    Congrats, FourBagger, you were right. The market was wrong about KORS--it wasn't negative enough. On the other hand, you were totally wrong about the company's disastrous Xmas quarter and outlook. Have you revised your revenue and EPS estimates for this year and next? If so, what are they? When can we expect a new piece from you analyzing the quarter and saying what your outlook is now? I really look forward to your next piece on KORS.
    Feb 11, 2015. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Under Attack From All Sides - I Am Avoiding The Stock [View article]
    Re: QCOM's 5G royalties. WSJ: Patent Holders Fear Smaller Tech Role:

    http://on.wsj.com/1z5cx47
    Feb 10, 2015. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lululemon Founder Chip Wilson's Departure Is Good For The Company [View article]
    NYTimes article on Chip Wilson:

    http://nyti.ms/173rUDs
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And The Mobile Business Opportunity [View article]
    Most of you are probably too young to remember John Mitchell, Nixon's Attorney General. He said Watch what we do, not what we say. The most important determinant of any company's success is quality of management. Which company delivers on what management says? Which company is profitable in mobile, and which is losing more and more money?
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And The Mobile Business Opportunity [View article]
    EETimes: ARM Cores Take on PC Processors
    2016 handsets to run 4K video, console games

    http://ubm.io/1LQ8tOe
    Feb 5, 2015. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Under Attack From All Sides - I Am Avoiding The Stock [View article]
    We must have read different articles. Reading carefully, China is a huge threat. Why do you think the China issues will be resolved sucessfully? Do you have special insight or knowledge about how things work there?
    Feb 3, 2015. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Go Home Mr. Market, You're Drunk [View article]
    Not sure if you remember John Mitchell, Nixon's late, great Attorney General. He said "Watch what we do, not what we say."
    Feb 2, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Go Home Mr. Market, You're Drunk [View article]
    Washington Post: Profile of luxury shopper undergoes transformation

    http://wapo.st/1D3o6f4
    Jan 31, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: Go Home Mr. Market, You're Drunk [View article]
    There must have been a lot of short covering.
    Jan 31, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Under Attack From All Sides - I Am Avoiding The Stock [View article]
    EETimes: QCOM outlook exposes 5 issues

    http://ubm.io/1yf7OfW
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tiffany & Co: Free Cash Flow Analysis 1991-2015: Far From The Gold Standard [View article]
    TIF holds an astounding 150+ days of inventory. According to Morningstar the average retailer holds 60 days. Of course luxury stores carry a lot more, but I can't think of a public comparable.

    Compounding this problem, capital spending is very high vs free cash flow. For the last three fiscal years, FCF was -67 million, 26 million and -29 million.

    Another issue: The WSJ recently ran “Dollar's Rise Puts Squeeze on American Companies.”

    http://on.wsj.com/1BkmbAC

    (Paywall)

    According to the article, 58% of TIF's sales come from overseas.


    On the other hand, in my view, TIF faces much less competition than other luxury vendors, eg watches and handbags.
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Has Staying Power, Michael Kors Doesn't [View article]
    Watch Hunger Stop and similar charitable ventures generate a strong halo effect--customers develop a positive feeling about the brand and think their purchases help a good cause.. One of the fashion mags ran a story about this, quoting Michael and showing a photo of a top model or actress with poor kids in a poor company. Plus a photo of Michael. In KORS case, Michael is strongly ID's with the brand, whereas no one is ID'd w/COH.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,229 Comments
231 Likes