Mr Mortgage

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    • Sun Nov 2nd 16:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Promising Regional Banks For Patient Investors - Barron's
      Banks are a mess with asset valuations represented on quarterly reports nowhere near their true valuations. I would agree with your analysis if the banks were reporting the true value of their assets. The problem with basing an analysis upon NEW lending is they still have to clean upon the trillions in bad loans before they will realize any upside from new. This runs across all assets classes. Remember, we are in an asset re-valuation period and the leverage comes out of the system. New loans pale in comparison to highly leveraged bad deals currently falling apart.
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    • Fri Sep 5th 01:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Smallcap in Demand
      By they way, what are your favorite picks. I am a gambler.
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    • Fri Sep 5th 01:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Smallcap in Demand
      Edit - small caps ARE small caps for a reason,

      when the funding really dries up over the next few MONTHS.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 5th 01:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Smallcap in Demand
      Puh-lease. If you must gamble in this treacherous market, then by all means small caps are the way to go. They have less to fall when they go to zero. But really, what is the purpose of this story? Watching inflows as you mentioned has been a disaster in the past year. Remember, we are in a credit crisis, small cap and small caps for a reason and when the funding really dries up over the next few years, short-to-zero plays using a dart board with small caps pinned up with be a much better trade than the one described here.
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    • Thu Aug 28th 23:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Private Equity to the Rescue of Banks?
      They can't come 'riding to the rescue' until there is some transparency to their books with respect to the valuation of their assets. For example, WaMu has $55 billion in Pay Option ARMs, $60 billion in Home Equity Lines and $16 billion in Subprime. Performing, these loans types might fetch 10 cents to 50 cents on the dollar on a great day! Non-performing or as REO, you may get 30 to 50 cents of the new value of the underlying collateral. That would means WaMu is looking at a write down of $10s of millions yet to come. With the housing market continuing to fall and defaults now surging in Alt-A, Jumbo Prime and second mortgages, there is not enough clarity. Most of these banks that hold such large amount of mortgage paper are deep underwater if you were to sell assets to pay off liabilities and 'settle up'. I highly doubt if any private equity will be as foolish as BofA was with CFC or as foolish as TPG was with WaMu for years to come. Just my opinion.
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    • Wed Aug 20th 13:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Today's Negative-Equity Update
      This information is by and large inaccurate and much worse in reality.

      This is because Zillow uses original purchase price to compute the negative equity despite larger percentages having refi'd after the fact or added a second mortgage. The problem is much larger than depicted here.
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    • Mon Aug 4th 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Crisis Likely to Wipe Out Two Decades of Family-Earned Wealth
      Great analysis. I love the chart. It really shows that despite housing prices dropping the most in history over an period of time, that due to a total lack of financing, the spread between home prices and affordability is as wide as ever.
      View article »
    • Thu May 8th 17:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Assured Guaranty: Vulnerable to Continued Bond Market Troubles
      good job reggie...I can't believe there are people who still believe in the business model.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 11th 03:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I am Selling Thornburg Mortgage
      Should have stayed short. Still should. I have been short since July and plan on riding it a bit further. I covered American Home at 48 cents. That is about 125% downside left!
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    • Tue Apr 8th 20:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ambac, MBIA Finally Get the Rating They Deserve
      You are right...it is all crooked. As housing prices continue to fall over the next couple of years, all ABP will be taken down with it. These guys do not have the money to pay even a remotely small portion of their potential liabilities. MBIA and ABK are the IMB and CFC of the insurance world. Worthless. AGO is next. How they skated through all of this is amazing.
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    • Sun Apr 6th 14:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ten Comments on Housing
      Good story but housing prices will fall further that you suspect, especially in jumbo bubble states like CA. Since we have lost all the exotic programs and are back to pre 1990's mortgage lending, you have to apply historic prices multiples and the best is the 100-year 3-4 time household income. In CA, were are still sitting at 7-10 times household income in most zip codes.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 3rd 02:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilding on an Uptrend?
      1- NAR Existing Home Sales Report...30%+ were bank owned REO which sold. Not a strong report at all.
      2- New Home Sales reported at the time of contract signing and with rates up sharply over the past month or so, and jumbo money over 8%, you will have a much higher fall out rate.
      3- Fannie/Freddie jumbos will not help people to refi out of bad loans. It ill only help someone with a large downpayment who makes alot of money buy a home. That person did not need help in the first place. Plus, AGency jumbo loans will be priced much higher than standard conforming.
      4- OFHEO news will not do much. They won't spend it all at once and they will look to buy distressed AAA closed loan assets to dilute the bad stuff happening with their portfolios.
      5- Mortgage rates should not decrease...we have an inflation problem. Every move the Fed has made since last year when they began has spiked weakened the dollar and spiked mortgage rates. Why would that change. In a perfect world, as rate cuts stimulate economy, Bond yields/mortgage rate rise.

      Go back to the drawing board on your thesis. You are dead wrong.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 3rd 02:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Homebuilding on an Uptrend?
      there is no fix for housing especially in the states that matter (make up most of nations gdp) such as CA. Remember, 1 year ago and for five years before that, we had hundreds of loan programs where a household income of $85k a year could buy a $1 million home worth zero to 5% down. Actually, no household income was ok on stated, no ratio or no doc programs, which were abundant to 100% interest only with teaser rates.

      Now, with only 30-yr fixed, 15-yr fixed and selective 5/1 product, the same $1 million home requires 20 cash down and a household income of $150 - $175k. Inventories are up 500+%.

      Essentially, we have 95% fewer buyers to buy 5x the number of homes for sale. And that does not include REO inventory. Remember, only 3-5% of homes sell to a 3rd party in foreclosure. The banks buy the rest back and add them to REO.
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    • Thu Apr 3rd 01:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stock Valuations On the Rise
      when do 'one time charges' that happen quarter after quarter become recurring charges.
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 2nd 22:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The "Ben is My Friend" Trade
      good disclaimers by the way.
      View article »
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