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uk1981

uk1981
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  • Why Tobacco Stocks Are Likely Poised For A Sharp Drop [View article]
    We are income oriented with capital appreciation potential as an entry requirement. We considered LO as it is an excellent company for going Long as well as options. But did not choose LO as the market maker for LO has far too big a spread between bid and ask. In other words, the market maker killed the deal. We considered MO and PM at this time. We invest six figures and do our own research. We are not advisers but seldom make mistakes, and exit those positions immeidately upon that discovery. We like both MO and PM. The author was correct, technicals are much better than the fundamentals. Up on increased volume is good news any way you see it. I am seeing increases in the institutional buys. Options should the prices for these stocks will likely stay near their current values for over a year. The result is that income from dividends will likely not decrease; share price will remain static or change within perhaps 5-10%. My bottom line as I see it follows: PM and MO are safe, resistance to downturns, and nice for a quarterly dividend check. We are NOT going to invest however in MO or PM because there are better income investments out there right now both from dividend and capital investment points of view. But, like I said, we are not investment advisors and we were scolded by comment people the last time we gave information because they seemed to have nothing else to do and decided to not agree with us by insults. So we do not respond anymore and seldom contribute. By the way, our monthly goal is to increase total portfolio by 3% monthly as a minimum. And we have been exceeding that for a long while now...
    Jun 9 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend-Focused Strategies Viable For Investors? [View article]
    Larry states my opinion is "extremely foolish" and that kind of commentary makes me want to simply not respond anymore. And that is the likely outcome; I put ideas here to help and not to be called names. First, I would not stay in a dividend paying stock that does not have top quartile ratings from two expensive database sources. That truncates risk to a high degree. Second, I would not buy that stock unless it had a strong business plan and history of dividend payouts. I ride winners not losers. And third, I fully understand that dividends may not be continued at the current rate for many reasons. But cutting my current overall dividend portfolio (now at 10%) still beats any bond portfolio alternative significantly. Of course Larry, I get that. I do wish Larry good luck with his high quality fixed income portfolio. Whether a value strategy or any other weak one using Larry's words, I am not interested in name calling or labeling at all. I run the numbers; what makes sense makes sense. There are many roads to Rome Larry; I happen to just chose dividend portfolio as part of my bullion, mutual fund shared total portfolio along with tax liens paying 16% and rental properties paying well beyond fixed expenses plus monthly operating expenses. I pay over $3,000 a year for data that has yet to be wrong. I can't help but wonder what kind of expertise Larry brings to the table. We certainly studied the fixed income results from 50 years history models from our MBA program before venturing into our do-it-yourself investing approach. It simply did not pan out compared to the alternatives studied. The solutions were better made with passive income approaches such as rentals, tax liens, and dividends. We always went with quality and not value investing. Enough said.. I am signing off. And I will likely end my contributions with this reply to Larry. I simply do not need insulting comentary!
    Apr 28 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Dividend-Focused Strategies Viable For Investors? [View article]
    Nice work on article. We live comfortably on dividends to supplement retirement checks monthly. I would thus be a fan of Graham & possibly Sharp. Possibly Buffet. Here is my math: A 10% dividend means that the stock is free after ten years. That is the meaning of percentage. A pure growth stock has to increase 8% in price annually compounded to accomplish the same thing. Meanwhile, nothing there says that the dividend paying stock will be stuck in the mud those ten years. It too may or may not increase as well at 8%. And there are many stocks today within the top quartile band in financial solidness that produce 10% and more. Going after blue chips now will not work because they simply are too pricey to capture my objective dividend yields. Readers of this commentary might do well to rethink high school math and do the research themselves rather than read the writers for most articles. Following the herd basically means the view is the same no matter your position in the herd. And the leader of herd may be fleeing not leading the mass behind him! So watch those coming cliffs and remember you too cannot stop at end game because the herd follower behind you will you push you too thru momentum. The end of the cliff may be pretty but less so as you tumble down.
    Apr 25 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Protect More Than Capital Gains [View article]
    Pey,
    I read the comment and your response to WMARKW. We are around 60 and use dividends to supplement income too. Without going into our own portfolio in value, we have 50% in stock, 85% and 15% of the remaining 50% in 5-star mutual funds and bullion. We are concerned about being diversified that the experts think wise as well as consequences from fiat USD after Obama's reelection this fall. Now, repeating the earlier questions, how would you allocate a $1.0 million portfolio between dividend, growth, precious metals, cash, etc?

    We use Investors Business Daily and Investools evaluations for stock quality (runs around $3k a year to subscribe) in top quartile for financials as well as dividends over 8% yield. But these are not the well known stocks like you own. Instead they are smaller mid sized companies. One example is PMT.

    Could you please comment to the asset distribution you think wise for old people needing strong dividends for income while wanting to reduce risk at the same time. It need not be a situation of eating your cake and saving it too. Thanks.
    Apr 24 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera: A Compelling mREIT Buy Candidate For 2012 [View article]
    About myself: retired R&D Aerospace Engineer (Boeing and Northrop), retired high school math teacher, now into investments using my MBA finance for my new job of five years - managing and building my own portfolio alone - tax liens, bullion, options, and quality stocks paying nice dividends. I am not a newsletter seller nor a consultant looking to tap into other peoples money. Now, to the points of this commentary. I do not understand my dislike for REITs. They seem to be solid dividend payers with government backed assets. So, I would like your opinion on whether I am being rationale on them as a whole. As far as CIM is concerned for example, their stock price is very low and I see no change coming up with them. For example, diminished earnings quarter after quarter and DCF under 3% over ten years. Even your pick as being safer of ANH scares me. Yes they pay a nice dividend but as their dividend increased this past year, their free cash flow turned negative. And their changes in working capital last year was their worst in ten years. So, I guess I don't get your concepts and that is the focus of this comment. If I were to go into this sector, I would like CYS more. Comments please!
    Apr 4 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Seach Of Yield And A Note Of Caution [View article]
    In view of Mr. Icahn delaring victory on CVI (strong business link to UAN) I would like your opinion on UAN. It is known that he acknowledges that he cannot at this time purchase any shares tendered in his offer, and such shares can be withdrawn at any time. But greed being what greed is, I would think he will gain BOD control in May. I am very long on UAN but it is based upon their business model which could change with Mr. Icahn.
    Apr 3 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Dividend Stocks For Retirees And 1 To Avoid [View article]
    I enjoyed the article but am having trouble with the picks. Let me discuss my observations on them.
    AGNC has terrible current earnings ranging from -59% drop in last quarter plus more. Sales and AROE are fine. Relative strength is not. Assets to Liabilities are okay but I would rather see something at or above 2:1.
    MO is well known and broad in defensive market. But its free cash flow is just 30% the last couple of years compared to earlier times. Earnings flat. Current and Quick Ratios are ok but could be much better. And I do not like the recent Supreme Court decision of Florida as it pertains to tobacco. I would go with either LO or VGR before MO.
    GGN. Price line is flat. Why buy this company? Gold itself is still up 15% in a year despite its recent drop. Buying bullion is maybe smarter. After all, we know the USD is losing value just witness the price of gasoline at the pump. Too many unknowns for me with GGN.
    LINE. Stock has flat lined in price. EPS 19% change last quarter (not good). Estimates not good. Annual earnings not good. Sales growth not good. Insider trading favorable. Nice increase in recent revenue and net income with steady dividends. Looks like well run company but not a barn burner. Dividend 7%+ fine for this company.
    In summary, I need to reread your article because I look for numbers like earnings (both current and annual), ratios, insider trading, and dividends (sustainability and growth over time). I am in agreement with the focus for retirement as regular checks high enough to live on. Like everyone else, I would like to see price appreciation plus dividends. And I am not see that price appreciation potential with your picks. All I can watch at home is between six and eight stocks closely. Ten was too many. I have been getting better than SP500 price appreciation over the past five years and a dividend average currently 8.17% with seven stocks. What am I missing in switching part of my portfolio to yours?
    Overall, an excellent article. I would rather do sound companies with strong dividends as compared to the earlier commenter on his favorite mutual fund MWTRX. Payout runs 4.4% and expense ratio of .64%. So his total return runs 3.8%. My social security check increased 3.6% in January due to reported inflation. After inflation and management expense, WTRX is not making the commentator a dime! He is not making anything on his “safer” investment at all. And I can keep making my 8%+ dividend even if market goes down. His fund went down to $8,70 during early 2009 so his fund is not safer really than mine or yours, just pays less. No thank you!
    Apr 1 08:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In Seach Of Yield And A Note Of Caution [View article]
    Great article. I too am very long on UAN having done the put on its way down and get the call on the way up switching as it hit $25 price point. Guess Icahn went away huh? I suggest though you reconsider on PNG. Fundamentals although not weak are also not strong. PAA has better numbers and 5.2% yield is acceptable. I would ask you to consider MAIN as better than them. Super fundamentals, nice 6.87% dividend, and on the up elevator for price appreciation. I too favor stable income producing instruments. My goals are to have income yields at least double anticipated CPI and capital appreciation that is not less than CPI. That allows me to draw down (monthly check) on portfolio at least at the CPI rate and continue to build upon my total portfolio. I have been averaging 8%.
    Mar 26 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Seach Of Yield And A Note Of Caution [View article]
    One of the better articles from this site. We are long UAN as well and did nicely with its performance. Good Job CVR Partners BOD!!!
    Mar 26 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Southern Copper Still A Good Long-Term Dividend Play? [View article]
    WSJ, March 3d, article says copper prices may not be sustained. China has stockpiled copper and warehouse are full. China consumes 40% world market for copper. Should demand drop then SCCO may be unable to continue with high dividend payout. Second thought, people liking high dividend payout, like us, need the cash as income source. Getting stock dividend rather than cash dividend requires us to sell stock instead incurring added costs plus it is less convenient. We nearly dropped six figures onto SCCO depending upon last conference call. After conference call, we dropped that cash onto LO instead. I hope SCCo returns to all cash dividend but understand their motive is to capture cash for expansion and giving stock dividend costs them nothing. It just dilutes overall stock value.
    Mar 3 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver's Potential Big Move: An Update [View article]
    I am with Avi but perhaps from a supply demand curve point of view. Silver has many industrial uses and is constantly being consumed. That lowers supply. More silver is either reclaimed or mined. That raises supply. Since silver is more expensive now than in 2007 (top of the economy world wide) it follows that aggregate supply is still down more than up. Moreover, the economy is heating up. Witness the $48B trade record surplus in January from China. Supply will be down late this year. That means demand will go up and supply down thus prices will go much higher, perhaps $50, by the start of year 2013. At the same time, global populations are up and third world nations are developing. Thus the number of potential buyers is up so demand is up. So, with increased demand (price) and lowered supply (using time as a mental 4d variable) silver prices must move up. And that direction is enhanced by devaluations of USD due to printing presses putting out more dollars thus reducing relative value of each one in a similar manner that a company issue more stock thus reduced stock prices or at least stablizing rising values. One can read up on Alfred Marshall and the demand curve. Lastly, I can use Fibs on a two year chart and see that SLV is not in danger at this time. I concur Long on SLV, and I have over six figures in vault silver invested behind that.
    Feb 21 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why AT&T Will Outperform Verizon [View article]
    I agree we now have a Senator for Hire program, Supreme Court says it is legal. Freedom of Speech rationale since Corporations are Individuals under that intrepretation. So be it. Issue for me is the huge unfunded liability of unfunded obligations such as Pensions. T and Vz are among top 25. I am thinking maybe TEF has better potential, they have had a better dividend for example.
    Feb 13 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Stocks For A Balanced High-Yield Dividend Portfolio [View article]
    Reference Seadrill (I did not look at the others). Cashflow and EPS projections are not that super. I would pass on it for those fundamental reasons. There is no shortage of higher paying dividend stocks, the issue is having better than average fundamentals to support them. Seadrill does not. And i would keep away from T as well given it has not funded very well its pension funds. There are better choices there as well. In essence, I do not concur with the author.
    Feb 3 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Dividend Ideas With Great Future Growth Prospects [View article]
    Social security increased their payout by 3.6% for January 2012. The author's picks are less than that. I can't afford to take a McD or KO or BPT that pays under 3%. And their financials are good. But I have no confidence I will make money with any of them. And the inconsistency of dividends (not steadily going up) is also not good. Plz compare to my favorite three: SXL WPZ VGR ... and yes, I have a great deal of money in each of these three. And their financials are much better than the author's picks. I don't think I will waste time with this blog after today.
    Dec 19 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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