Research Guy

General Motors: Time to Pull the Plug

If the PennCentral Railroad could fail, then GM is not too big to fail!

Red Flags at Bidz.com

This article is true research. Your writing is far above many of the articles I read here. Authors should strive to create such original thought. Most here just regurgitate everyone else's ideas. Your investigative work was interesting and pertinent.

Keep up the good work.

My Top Four Emerging Micro-Cap Biotech Stocks

I would recommend against purchasing the author's research from his web page. The $5 I paid for one of the research reports was not worth the money. I found the report to lack analysis and really only told me what I already knew about the company in question.

I bought the report thinking I would get some scientific insights that I am unable to arrive at on my own. Boy was I wrong! Mr. Havrilla claims to have scientific expertise, yet his reports do not reflect his knowledge claims.

I was highly disappointed because the report lacked any sort of independent thought or analysis. From what I read, it appeared as if the author just regurgitated the 10-Q and other reports. If you are going to sell research please provide a thesis and independent analysis!

Another question: why does he have stock picks in the Industrial and Financial sectors if he bills his website as one that touts Biotech stocks?

I am all for people getting a start and building their research career but this is a joke!

Playing With the Fire at E*Trade

Ken Lay was adamant in telling his employees and the Street that Enron would not go bankrupt. People who wish to write articles and make claims that a business platform has value need to back up these assertions. Research means that when you draw a conclusion you provide tangible evidence. The article lacks any tangible evidence in two places: (1) where do you provide a basis for valuing the business platform; and, (2) why have you not assessed the likelihood of bankruptcy. Tools exist for such endeavors, most readily known is the Altman Z Score.

Note on Bill Miller: his letter to shareholders was quite interesting. Mr. Miller makes a few presuppositions which torpedo his thoughts on Housing stocks. Mr. Miller states that the credit markets are not working, that credit market provide liquidity to function, and that when credit fails the economy starts to backfire. He goes on to state that the difference in 2007, is that problems are not confined to Wall St. If these statements are true, how can a company like Countrywide, E-Trade, or any home builder be undervalued?

These companies and their sectors rely on credit markets. Therefore, anyone can logically conclude that if credit markets do not work, the housing sector and mortgage lenders will continue to suffer. Please be carefully when reading exuberant comments on such value traps!

I enjoy Seeking Alpha, but the writers need to start providing data rather than general comments and assertions. An entire industry gets paid to do that, provide some value.

Telecom New Zealand: Shelter from the US Dollar

I enjoyed your article on NZT. I found the stock on a value screen I use and was impressed with the Dividend Yield of NZT. The company makes sense for any income investor given the 8% yield.

E*Trade: A Bargain At These Levels?

There is another problem with your article: you do not disclose that you used to work for E-Trade. Given your current profession of Financial Advisor, this article is inappropriate. Reading your biography, I feel that there are too many conflicts of interest in your analysis.

Anyone who reads this article needs to read Ms. Alexis's bio. You will then realize that this article should not be on this website. A Financial Planner should not be moonlighting as an equity researcher on a public website writing about her former employer.

E*Trade: A Bargain At These Levels?

I enjoyed your article until you stated that you bought the company. Everyone has reasons for buying or speculating in a stock; most will not publish their thesis if it lacks any intellectual horse power. Your investment thesis leaves much to be desired. You are saying that because AMTD is worth $11B that ETFC is cheap at $1.5B? The last time I checked AMTD does not have any meaningful exposure to deteriorating credit assets.

Execution and franchise mean nothing when the underlying business is going to possibly die. Furthermore, if ETFC is a BK candidate, why would anyone buy it now? A purchaser will get a better deal in bankruptcy proceedings, meaning all equity will be wiped out.

This stock should not even be termed speculation right now. Rather, you investment falls into the reckless abandon category.