Thanks for the reply, it helps to see the "forensics" that you posted in the instablog. I was just going from cboe data/charts, which isn't quite as detailed.
Good work on the daily recaps by the way, I find them to be a nice balance of the numbers/stats and concise analysis.
Since you mentioned AAPL, I'll ask for a professional opinion- What happened in the April 540/560 strikes at about 2:15? The 560 premium spiked up and 540 spiked down suggesting to me that someone put on a big bear put spread betting on a retracement to 540 by April. (Today's volumes in these 2 were 40k higher than nearby strikes) Do you think I'm reading this right or is something else going on?
Making Money With An Alcoa Short Options Trade [View article]
Are your trades backwards? You'd want to buy the 12 strike and sell the 13 for net debit of a quarter for a bull spread. The way you have it written, your buy the 13, sell the 12 trade is set up like a bear call spread, albeit at a higher price than the stock is currently trading. With your trade as written, if AA went to 13.00 at expiration (the indicated 24.6% max profit move) your short 12 call would be ITM by a buck while the 13 would be worth nothing.
Hehe, guess the 2 above got in first while I was writing this. Just a small mistake, but in a very important spot!
Interesting note on some of the cultural aspects of the situation. If financial push came to shove, I'm not 100% convinced that any cultural inclination would be enough to overcome an overwhelmingly bad situation. As an additional comment on your arguments - shame is a very strong concept in Japanese culture. I have to believe that the level of national shame that would come with a default would simply not be tolerated. I would anticipate a strong, collective response to do whatever was needed to avoid such an event. In short, Japanese austerity would likely be easier to implement than Greek.
VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Tuesday Recap [View article]
Good work on the daily recaps by the way, I find them to be a nice balance of the numbers/stats and concise analysis.
VIX - Options Volatility Sonar: Tuesday Recap [View article]
Making Money With An Alcoa Short Options Trade [View article]
Making Money With An Alcoa Short Options Trade [View article]
Hehe, guess the 2 above got in first while I was writing this. Just a small mistake, but in a very important spot!
Time To Open Japan Back Up [View article]