geotopia

Precious Metals’ Gleam Is Not Tarnished: When Will They Finally Bottom?

Gerdreflux is spot on, there is NO RECOVERY. It's all smoke and mirrors and is being presented in the false light that the government can generate wealth (which is really what we're talking about, right?!). The government can't make wealth, it can only spend it. Because of numerous conflicts of interest, when it gets in the business of trying to manufacture or create private services, it wastes it through inefficiencies. Because of the arbitrary way in which government picks winners and loser, the way it distributes wealth, it's simply an inefficient mechanism in the market and until it gets out of the way of the private sector, there will be no turn around. The longer it waits to get out, the more money the private sector will lose because of uninvested capital.

Of course the next big problem America (and the world) will have to deal with is declining tax revenues from declining business revenues and income from which it derives those revenues. Having pre-spent those taxes, the temptation will be to raise tax rates, but it doesn't take an economist to know that further pressuring capital doesn't create incentives for investment, but discourages it, and thus another turn further into a downwards cycle. The longer we wait to reverse the trends, the worse it will get.

I'd warn against relying on technical indicators because they are based upon linear predictability and what we're heading for is frenetic regions of chaos. Tomorrow could be massive inflation or deflation, we don't know, but use your gut... print more money, it dilutes the value, just like a stock split, except in this case the shareholders aren't getting the new issues deposited in their bank accounts.

Contrarian Short Base Rises for Palm

Palm and Dell - Why the heck is Dell talking about a new device in the midst of what is heating up as intense competition in this market. Dell's got manufacturing and marketing prowess and Palm's got real experience with GUI and small RTOSes, why not work together? Just remember AAPL and RIMM aren't standing still, so together or separately, these two better ramp things up or hang up the towel.

Will Dell Succeed with New Device? Doubtful

As a consumer (of IT products), I find Dell a much more compelling brand than HP or Acer, but outside of Desktops, Servers, Flat Panel Displays and Network Switches (apparently not doing so well), I have a hard time seeing Dell succeed in this newer category of Mobile Internet Devices. Dell has improved their distribution and they've always been good at ODM products, but this new category has a reliance upon innovative new GUIs and Dell has virtually no [successful] experience in that realm.

Smartphone Update: 2008 Q4 Market Share

If I read the text right, this article purports that a narrow product range is a negative for Apple, but there's no empirical evidence that a broad range of offerings have helped any of the entrenched players keep or build marketshare, and in fact, the opposite is likely true. There's only one iPhone, not only in that only Apple builds the iPhone, but that Apple only has one model (with different memory capacities, though that hardly broadens their product range, just the "options" available for said product).

Has Apple Hit a Wall in Music Innovation?

While I agree with the non-feature of the shake to shuffle (not even worth a gesture during the demo!), I disagree with the overall assessment of the event. Those expecting a new gadget weren't thinking it through rationally, because the iPod has very little that can change to the physical product. I think Touch + High Capacity HDD is about the only unexplored hardware combination, but let's be real - Apple isn't going to clutter these devices with buttons and the screen real estate on all models was already maxed out, so that can only leave subtle upgrades like more battery and silly features like shake and shuffle on the device.

The genius feature of device and software, however, will end up being one of those features that further cement Apple's grip on the market. My breakdown is thus - I put most of my library on my iPod (120GB) and 98% of the time shuffle my list. But, I am constantly skipping to the next song because random lists don't match any single mood (e.g. Classic Rock sing-along cruising around town, Psychedelic Rock when I'm working). Using multi-user heuristics is what I've been really waiting for. Something that puts compatible songs next to each other. I hope that the software watches for how long each song is played and downgrades skips and bumps songs played in full.

But, the really big news is the return of NBC. Both NBC and Apple both had to compromise, but the return of the NBC programs proves to the world that NBC couldn't overlook iTMS as a necessary outlet for their content. It's another stone in the wall preventing other services like Rhapsody from taking hold, while cementing content developers into the iTMS marketplace. I think Amazon will hold its own for downloads and on-line CD sales and Walmart will remain the hard copy leader, but in a year or two, if not sooner, no one will go to Rhapsody, Zune MP, or Napster, and all traffic will be to iTMS or YouTube.

Microsoft's Zune Tries to Preempt Apple's "Rock" Event

Although I'm starting to get used to it now, it's still feels odd to see MSFT getting bested in so many areas of technology in spite of their monopoly. I'll bet it has taken a while for the Redmond culture to grasp that the Windows/Office monopolies were not invulnerable and some divisions (Zunes, MSN, XBox, MCE) seem to resist to their detriment that they won't succeed without innovating and besting the competition. Perhaps the perfect storm that built the DOS monopoly (remember, the egg before the chicken) can't be duplicated and Bill was more a fluke than a genius!?
Anyway, the author of the article is a bit facetious with respect to the Zune's market, but it's hard to take it too seriously. I'd like to know how many Zune units have been sold in the last two years. Does anyone have that number? Want to share it? Disgruntled employees? Burned marketing partners? Retailers?

What's the Point of Google's Phone ?

Chicken and Egg problem. This isn't going to be a money maker for Google, but a way to bully the phone co.s to open up to Google and others. In the future, once there's a market, Google can make more $ from it's traditional business of advertising. The brand has equity and if at least one cellular co. jumps on, they'll have a short order for an iPhone-like (ish) offering.
Based upon that, a Disney branded phone for kids would do just as well in the short term.

What's the Point of Google's Phone ?

Chicken and Egg problem. This isn't going to be a money maker for Google, but a way to bully the phone co.s to open up to Google and others. In the future, once there's a market, Google can make more $ from it's traditional business of advertising. The brand has equity and if at least one cellular co. jumps on, they'll have a short order for an iPhone-like (ish) offering.
Based upon that, a Disney branded phone for kids would do just as well in the short term.

What's the Point of Google's Phone ?

Chicken and Egg problem. This isn't going to be a money maker for Google, but a way to bully the phone co.s to open up to Google and others. In the future, once there's a market, Google can make more $ from it's traditional business of advertising. The brand has equity and if at least one cellular co. jumps on, they'll have a short order for an iPhone-like (ish) offering.
Based upon that, a Disney branded phone for kids would do just as well in the short term.

Apple Inc: The Hype Must Go On

AAPL has seldom been aligned with the general market. In the 90's, for good reason, it was plummeting during one of the biggest market booms in history. That it is currently riding the wave is deceptive. There are times when you have to stop looking at numbers, pause, and ask if there's a real intrinsic value in a company's stock price - look at their products, sales channels, ability to market said products. If they are cabable and currently executing a revolution, then you have to separate them from the market. This is case in point with AAPL. Sorry, contrary to your thesis, these guys, with Steve at the helm, are clearly and consistently delivering revolutionary products and paradigms quarter after quarter. Applying historical or statistical models to Apple's current performance is a blunder.

Apple Inc: The Hype Must Go On

AAPL has seldom been aligned with the general market. In the 90's, for good reason, it was plummeting during one of the biggest market booms in history. That it is currently riding the wave is deceptive. There are times when you have to stop looking at numbers, pause, and ask if there's a real intrinsic value in a company's stock price - look at their products, sales channels, ability to market said products. If they are cabable and currently executing a revolution, then you have to separate them from the market. This is case in point with AAPL. Sorry, contrary to your thesis, these guys, with Steve at the helm, are clearly and consistently delivering revolutionary products and paradigms quarter after quarter. Applying historical or statistical models to Apple's current performance is a blunder.