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Changi

Changi
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  • American Capital Agency's Newest Secondary Lets Investors Bet On Kain Again [View article]
    What's the point of this article?
    Mar 4 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Sells Shares, Annaly Likely To Follow [View article]
    If AGNC's move was predictable, why didn't you predict it then?
    Mar 1 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Confronts mREIT Malaise [View article]
    Again a decisively superficial analysis.
    Who's then holding now the title as leader of the 20% dividend payers? There are no longer 20% dividend payers.
    Does anyone really believe that AGNC would expect to buy back any shares at 50% discount?
    Nov 1 03:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Decreased Leverage, Prepayments And $500 Million Repurchase Plan [View article]
    thanks for the clear charts
    Oct 30 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manic Monday For mREITs [View article]
    Good grief! So you were among those who paniqued yesterday and sold cheap without taking the time to think! Would you dare tell us at what price you liquidated your position?
    Oct 16 06:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency - Should You Buy This Fat Yield? [View article]
    Frankly I don't see any interest in this article. These upside and downside arguments have been exposed many times before on this site, and it offers no guidance as to what to do with the stock.
    The "wait-and-see" conclusion fits adequately a development that has nothing new to say.
    Looks to me like plain advertising by the contributor for her company.
    Sep 22 02:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FHA: A Huge Risk To Your mREIT Investment? [View article]
    This article would be of much interest if the opinions stated were not systematically softened by an excessive use of conditional forms such as "could" "would" "should" "seem".
    A couple of questions:
    1) What makes you think that the FHA is running out of money. What is your reliable source?
    2) What makes you think that NLY "could" be buying more FHA-insured mortgages than others?
    3) What makes you think that AGNC "could" be buying less FHA-insured mortgages than others?
    Looking forward to more solid answers.
    Aug 13 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.3%) experiences a flash crash, plummeting 11% in the opening seconds of trade on volume of 5.7M shares (normally trades about 100K in the first 2 minutes). One wonders if any stops got triggered. [View news story]
    Well done. Now that you have sold at $33, what are you gonna do? Buy back at $34?
    Aug 7 12:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Automakers I Am Considering Based On Positive Outlooks [View article]
    You are surely not considering them, since you own them both already.
    Was this article written by a human being or an auto...maton?
    Jul 19 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premium To Book Value Encourages Secondary Offering At American Capital Agency [View article]
    I see no good news in these AGNC preliminary Q2-2012 results.

    First, the increase in book value per share this quarter is marginal, not in line with what we could have expected from the previous quarters' performance. That means that the gain on the MBS portfolio due to the falling interest rates was nearly all wiped out by the hedging.

    Second, comprehensive net income per share and taxable net income per share have fallen dramatically compared to Q1's. Obviously, AGNC will not repeat the 38% annualized economic return it boasted after Q1, it will be very far from it, probably less than 22%.

    Third, the increase of the projected constant prepayment rate to 12% from 9%, combined with the much lower net spread income (a 34% fall) is also very bad news.

    AGNC has not declared its next dividend yet. I fear it will be less than the current $1.25. I expect that the dividend will be declared after completion of the secondary offering, because AGNC managers would want to avoid the negative impact a lower dividend announcement will have on its success.

    Conclusion? Stay away from this secondary, wait until the picture gets clearer. AGNC's stock, in light of the Q2 performance, is overpriced, it may fall back by the time of the dividend announcement.
    Jul 18 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 REITs With 13% Yields I'm Considering A Position In Over The Next Week [View article]
    After explaining that AGNC's price rise is "making the stock attractive", saying that the Fed just took steps to "flatten out the yield curve" - hence squeezing the REIT's margins - this article goes to declare the stock "attractive at these levels", i.e. a buy at $32.53 very near its all time top, but more so at $31.50, and even better at $29.75.

    I would like to add to this interesting study a conclusion I drew from extensive personal research: at $28.37 the stock would probably still be attractive.
    Jun 24 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Is A Dividend Increase At Hand? [View article]
    Think twice and check AGNC's strategy before you conclude that AGNC is twice as risky as other REIT's. It is not, and the leverage ratio is insufficient an indicator to assess riskiness.

    Judge on facts: you bought NLY six months ago. Since then, NLY shares stayed virtually flat, whereas AGNC rose 20%. Why? because AGNC's book value rose some $3 in 6 months - an outstanding performance - while NLY's stayed flat. But why has AGNC's book value increased and not NLY's? That's the key question. Answer is that AGNC has demonstrated superior performance at selecting, managing, protecting their portfolio of MBS's. Check the continuous rise of the book value since inception in 2008, compare the stability of their dividends with others, the openness of the company on financial information, the clearly stated objectives and the soundness of the strategy.

    Those who acquired AGNC shares six months ago (and even more so for those who bought them before that) not only got a superior dividend payout, but enjoyed a significant appreciation of their holding as well, and that's to be taken into account when one compares REIT performances and assesses a stock's value.
    Jun 17 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Is A Dividend Increase At Hand? [View article]
    Are you predicting an increase in dividend because the 10-year treasury bond rate spiked two days ago from 1.62% to 1.66% and because investors expecting - according to you - a dividend increase have recently lifted the stock value? That's pure speculative and wishful thinking.

    Annaly is a good mREIT to hold, but there are nowadays proven better ones around.
    Jun 15 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Is A Dividend Increase At Hand? [View article]
    Hi captain!

    If you bought AGNC three years ago, you paid $19.31 or so for it. Since then the stock appreciated to $33.58. And you also got $16.75 in dividends. Now this is way above a 37% return that you got, more like 161%. And this performance is way outperforming that of any other mREIT on the market over that period.

    So, captain Ulysses steering your portfolio on the choppy seas of interest rate fluctuations, don't get lost listening to the mermaids who spread and (wish to tweet) their messages into the winds of the internet, trying to seduce you and others with poorer alternatives, for example NLY whose share has been virtually flat in the same three year period.

    You made an excellent investment three years ago, keep it, and if you have excess money to invest in REIT's, wait until AGNC's next secondary offering (shouldn't have to wait too long now) and buy some more.
    Jun 15 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Short Frontline And Avoid The Tanker Market Risk [View article]
    Hello Richard N. Davis,

    Thank you for your reply, I really appreciate your feedback.

    First, the Cash flow. The Frontline Q1 cash flow reported figure is indeed M$13.5, you're right, I was wrong, mea culpa. Frontline therefore was operationally sound in that quarter, generated cash, made a profit, despite the Cash Sweep expense you mention, that is already taken into account in the Operating Expenses.

    A look at the Equity confirms that Frontline is pulling out from the severe tanker crisis: Frontline's equity did increase during Q1 2012, and this despite selling a vessel at a loss.

    Moreover, from March 2011 to March 2012, LT debt was slashed by 59%, Capital Lease obligations reduced by 25%. This convinces me that Frontline management – Mr Fredriksen and his team – took the difficult and severe measures appropriate to stop "the ship from tanking" and give the company a real chance of survival. One of the courageous measures, in my opinion, was the suppression of the dividend. I have no doubt that that sacrifice must have hurt Frontline's biggest shareholder most, and that's not you nor me, poor nutshells on the high seas.

    What else would you fairly expect from Mr Fredriksen to do to "save" the company that he has not done, both as a shareholder and as its CEO?

    Frontline is not in the business of selling tankers, so the fleet's market value loss you point out has no direct material impact on its operations. If you own a car and use it to drive to work or golf every day and have no intention to sell, what impact would have a sudden fall in its resale value to you? None. The benefit to you of your car would remain unchanged. The value to you is not the market value, it is the Net Present Value this car brings you in terms of driving you every day to your destinations, and that has no changed.

    Why am I eager to see Q2 results? Because I hope Frontline will report a profit, and you a loss. Aren't you impatient to see the outcome?

    You are short FRO, I am long. Future will tell who was right.
    Jun 14 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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