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Changi

Changi
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  • I Am Short American Capital Agency After Q1 Numbers [View article]
    Dear Global Value Investor,
    I read your analysis on AGNC incredulously.
    - You assert that since their results are so good, they must be too risky, hence they are bad.
    - You - correctly - point out that the dividend has been lowered – from $1.50 in 2010-2011 to $1.25 – so you give AGNC a huge red flag (!), ignoring that at that level the stock sports a remarkable 16% yield.
    - You disregard the fact that AGNC's high leverage is compensated in part by the low prepayment rate.
    - You totally discount the book value appreciation of $1.35 in Q1, the continuation of a string of consistent appreciations of the past quarters, a big plus for investors.
    - You blame AGNC for having been only 4 years around. Your rationale: since they've only 4 years in the market, their good results are not reliable. What would you have written if the results had been sub-par?
    I am afraid that your analysis of AGNC's results is somewhat superficial and specious.
    But is it sincere? Are you indeed shorting AGNC? If so, that will cost you dearly I'm afraid, and you'll feel the pinch as early as in June.
    May 4, 2012. 01:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bull on mortgage REITs, Dividend Master nevertheless unloads American Capital Agency (AGNC) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE). AGNC's and MTGE's share prices tower by about 10% over their book values ($29.06 and $21.78 respectively, as of 3/31). Expect secondaries soon to "monetize the premium."  [View news story]
    consider AGNC past book values: 12/2009 $22.48, 12/2010 $24.24, 12/2011 $27.71, 03/2012 $29.06.
    AGNC achieves this unique result (know of any other REIT who did that? I don't) because its portfolio of mortgages is dynamically managed.
    So this answer is yes, AGNC has certainly acquired/sold securities the impact of which is not reflected in 03/2012's book value.
    Interested in how AGNC's performance is achieved? CEO Gary Kain presentation transcript and presentation to Barclays Capital Americas is recommended reading.
    May 22, 2012. 01:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bull on mortgage REITs, Dividend Master nevertheless unloads American Capital Agency (AGNC) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE). AGNC's and MTGE's share prices tower by about 10% over their book values ($29.06 and $21.78 respectively, as of 3/31). Expect secondaries soon to "monetize the premium."  [View news story]
    Why the heck would you sell AGNC because it's 10% over book value? Why should AGNC not be worth more than book value? AGNC's book value today is probably in the range of $30, and with a probable $1-$1.50 dividend going ex in June, AGNC's current price of $32 looks still very attractive.
    May 22, 2012. 12:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Huge Dividend In Danger Of Being Cut [View article]
    American Capital Agency a wholly owned subsidiary of the publicly traded private equity firm American Capital (ACAS)? Funny, I thought I owned some AGNC shares. Maybe they are not mine after all.
    Entry point at $26.33? Why would anyone in the market sell you below book value? That's just posturing Ry Frank, you probably missed on the outstanding performance the stock, and with that target I bet you'll never buy AGNC.
    May 28, 2012. 02:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 3) [View article]
    This series of three articles by Parsimony is an excellent analysis of the operation of AGNC as an "agency mREIT". It explains how the company operates, how it makes its money, how and why it pays its shareholders, what the risks involved are, why its results are - so far - outstanding from the standpoint of the shareholders.
    It is a must reading for whomever wonders how REIT's operate, or is pondering whether or not to invest money in an mREIT.
    Commendable job, Parsimony. Hope you'll enlighten us on other topics without parsimony...
    May 7, 2012. 02:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A bull on mortgage REITs, Dividend Master nevertheless unloads American Capital Agency (AGNC) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE). AGNC's and MTGE's share prices tower by about 10% over their book values ($29.06 and $21.78 respectively, as of 3/31). Expect secondaries soon to "monetize the premium."  [View news story]
    That's a good point Mashie.
    Actually, if you check, you'll see that AGNC stock, for example, falls consistently by the amount of the dividend when it goes ex. Exactly what you would expect. So there is no arbitrage fat profit to be made there.
    The moral: don't just trust a statement because it looks forcefully asserted. Do your home work.
    May 23, 2012. 08:58 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Sells Shares, Annaly Likely To Follow [View article]
    If AGNC's move was predictable, why didn't you predict it then?
    Mar 1, 2013. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Confronts mREIT Malaise [View article]
    Again a decisively superficial analysis.
    Who's then holding now the title as leader of the 20% dividend payers? There are no longer 20% dividend payers.
    Does anyone really believe that AGNC would expect to buy back any shares at 50% discount?
    Nov 1, 2012. 03:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manic Monday For mREITs [View article]
    Good grief! So you were among those who paniqued yesterday and sold cheap without taking the time to think! Would you dare tell us at what price you liquidated your position?
    Oct 16, 2012. 06:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FHA: A Huge Risk To Your mREIT Investment? [View article]
    This article would be of much interest if the opinions stated were not systematically softened by an excessive use of conditional forms such as "could" "would" "should" "seem".
    A couple of questions:
    1) What makes you think that the FHA is running out of money. What is your reliable source?
    2) What makes you think that NLY "could" be buying more FHA-insured mortgages than others?
    3) What makes you think that AGNC "could" be buying less FHA-insured mortgages than others?
    Looking forward to more solid answers.
    Aug 13, 2012. 01:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC -3.3%) experiences a flash crash, plummeting 11% in the opening seconds of trade on volume of 5.7M shares (normally trades about 100K in the first 2 minutes). One wonders if any stops got triggered. [View news story]
    Well done. Now that you have sold at $33, what are you gonna do? Buy back at $34?
    Aug 7, 2012. 12:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dozen Reasons To Like American Capital Agency Corp. [View article]
    A dozen reasons we've read about a dozen times already !
    May 31, 2012. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Shipping Stocks With High Dividend Yields And Recent EPS Surprises [View article]
    Dividend yield is one thing, overall benefit to shareholders another.
    Take the case of Teekay.
    Teekay pays $2.05 in dividends, but LOST $1.74 /share last year. Where did they took the cash then? by issuing new equity, diluting shareholders' holding by 41% ! In reality, Teekay picked more from the shareholders pocket than it pointedly gave in dividends.
    May 30, 2012. 02:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford May Reach $15 In 2014 [View article]
    why $15 in 2014? Frankly, with its current performance, it should be at $15 today, and $20 in 2013.
    May 30, 2012. 02:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Management Presents at 2012 UBS Global Financial Services Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    Frankly some of the statements don't make sense at all, at least to me.

    Example:
    So, I think when you think about the book value of component that we’re priced to book components that can be a factor in equity rises. It’s very important to think about that in terms of the current environment.

    Can this transcript be translated in proper English?
    May 10, 2012. 05:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
53 Comments
56 Likes