techy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/109568/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/162396-amazon-short-interest-rising?source=feed#comment-687951 687951 Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:19:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/331373-richard-glenn/27932-swimming-against-the-current-why-shorting-amzn-is-a-bad-idea?source=feed#comment-687941 687941
investing is mostly speculation these days....since most stock are moving 60-100% with not much change in fundamentals.

hence nothing wrong with speculating that AMZN cannot pull off 300% growth in the next 2-3 years.
can it go another 30% up? yes it can hence always play it safe using only play money in options spreads.

but can it go down 70%, you betcha....i have historicaly chart to prove that possibility.]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 14:14:11 -0400
investing is mostly speculation these days....since most stock are moving 60-100% with not much change in fundamentals.

hence nothing wrong with speculating that AMZN cannot pull off 300% growth in the next 2-3 years.
can it go another 30% up? yes it can hence always play it safe using only play money in options spreads.

but can it go down 70%, you betcha....i have historicaly chart to prove that possibility.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100409-stay-away-from-yahoo-despite-persistent-microsoft-merger-rumors?source=feed#comment-286519 286519
you do not have enough brain to comment on anything "Period".]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:30:06 -0400
you do not have enough brain to comment on anything "Period".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98399-inflation-deflation-and-the-u-s-china-relationship?source=feed#comment-273990 273990
and you think china will stop supporting USD overning?? if i am not wrong they are the owner of 2 trillion USD in some form or fashion. if USD goes down 20% what will that do to their holdings??

what you are suggesting may happen one day......or may never happen, depends on how things play out.

if usa,europe etc goes into recession....china will suffer so much in the exports that its economy will be barely able to support enough jobs.

right now china's only goal is to increase its exports not decrease it.

yes every country in the world wants to become USA, ie, to have a huge consumer base supporting a big economy keeping employment below 6-8%.

but USA did not become one overnight, and it was definitely not planned....it happened by chance more than planning.]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 12:17:21 -0400
and you think china will stop supporting USD overning?? if i am not wrong they are the owner of 2 trillion USD in some form or fashion. if USD goes down 20% what will that do to their holdings??

what you are suggesting may happen one day......or may never happen, depends on how things play out.

if usa,europe etc goes into recession....china will suffer so much in the exports that its economy will be barely able to support enough jobs.

right now china's only goal is to increase its exports not decrease it.

yes every country in the world wants to become USA, ie, to have a huge consumer base supporting a big economy keeping employment below 6-8%.

but USA did not become one overnight, and it was definitely not planned....it happened by chance more than planning.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98560-america-needs-a-turnaround-plan?source=feed#comment-273984 273984 ---------------------
i have been reading everywhere that now we are heading towards a great depression and not much can be done to make the pain less.

by great depressions, people are predicting that unemployment(official) will shoot up as much as 10-20%.

housing will fall another 30%(panic sales and foreclosures) and will stay there for 4-5 years.

businesses are going to now start laying off preparing for a long recession and consumers are already maxed out and scared hence they will pull back sharply, sending the consumption on a cliff dive.

stock market will go down further 10-20%, destroying wealth and bringing more angst to consumers.

but i feel that if the government wanted it can definitely lessen the pain by doing the below:

1. backstop housing by buying and removing from market all default/foreclosure property(will the current bailout plan do it?)

2. FED interest rate lowered to 0.5%, and mortgage interest lowered to 5%(fannie and freddie are gov entities and can loan money infinitely)
3.more benefits given to home buyers to help housing(how about increasing the short term tax break from 7500 to 25000, which can also be financed from IRA or 401k with no penalty)
3.stimulus checks every three months to help consumer income
4.Faciliate interbank lending by being the middle man(use the trust of the government).
5. Massive infrastructure projects to support job.

in other words...fight deflation and debt with inflation to stave off the sharp pain.

i think these are doable....but will they do it?

people may ask where will they get the money for all this, if i am not wrong government can still borrow at less than 5%, and if FED rate is lowered and we go into recession people will be happy to loan the government at less than 4%.

since price of food and energy is going down, there is no more worry that more money into the system will cause inflation.
right now money is getting destroyed faster than FED can inject money into the system
]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 12:02:41 -0400 ---------------------
i have been reading everywhere that now we are heading towards a great depression and not much can be done to make the pain less.

by great depressions, people are predicting that unemployment(official) will shoot up as much as 10-20%.

housing will fall another 30%(panic sales and foreclosures) and will stay there for 4-5 years.

businesses are going to now start laying off preparing for a long recession and consumers are already maxed out and scared hence they will pull back sharply, sending the consumption on a cliff dive.

stock market will go down further 10-20%, destroying wealth and bringing more angst to consumers.

but i feel that if the government wanted it can definitely lessen the pain by doing the below:

1. backstop housing by buying and removing from market all default/foreclosure property(will the current bailout plan do it?)

2. FED interest rate lowered to 0.5%, and mortgage interest lowered to 5%(fannie and freddie are gov entities and can loan money infinitely)
3.more benefits given to home buyers to help housing(how about increasing the short term tax break from 7500 to 25000, which can also be financed from IRA or 401k with no penalty)
3.stimulus checks every three months to help consumer income
4.Faciliate interbank lending by being the middle man(use the trust of the government).
5. Massive infrastructure projects to support job.

in other words...fight deflation and debt with inflation to stave off the sharp pain.

i think these are doable....but will they do it?

people may ask where will they get the money for all this, if i am not wrong government can still borrow at less than 5%, and if FED rate is lowered and we go into recession people will be happy to loan the government at less than 4%.

since price of food and energy is going down, there is no more worry that more money into the system will cause inflation.
right now money is getting destroyed faster than FED can inject money into the system
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92282-still-bullish-on-salesforce-com?source=feed#comment-260692 260692
how long is it going to take you to accept that this bear market is not right for overpriced stocks....how is the EMC or VMW play working for you?


CRM is completely bullshit stock...its some how kept pumped up by its holders who are mostly big fund managers, who refuse to book loss and keep looking for opportunties to squeeze the shorts.

some how big muscle shorts have not entered this stock....once they enter this stock it will be in 10s-20s.

trading at a p/e > 200 in a bear market.....well i am missing something, maybe they will grow their earnings 100% Q to Q for the next 2-3 years...]]> Sun, 21 Sep 2008 12:45:02 -0400
how long is it going to take you to accept that this bear market is not right for overpriced stocks....how is the EMC or VMW play working for you?


CRM is completely bullshit stock...its some how kept pumped up by its holders who are mostly big fund managers, who refuse to book loss and keep looking for opportunties to squeeze the shorts.

some how big muscle shorts have not entered this stock....once they enter this stock it will be in 10s-20s.

trading at a p/e > 200 in a bear market.....well i am missing something, maybe they will grow their earnings 100% Q to Q for the next 2-3 years...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96432-prepare-to-sell-monday-cramer-s-mad-money-9-19-08?source=feed#comment-260247 260247
he can simply give a portfolio....for people to follow....if he wants he can charge money.

he can give daily sell and buy calls. at a particular price tag.

but i am sure he does not do such a thing....to easy to prove he is as worthless as any fund manager....

hard to make money in a bear market......and even a chimp can pick stocks in a bull market.

if cramer already has a set portfolio....can some one give me a link...google search is not returning anything specific.

i know that cramer owns EMC for his trust.....its only down 50% YTD.

i also know he recommended RIMM at 119, its only down 15%.]]> Sat, 20 Sep 2008 17:43:22 -0400
he can simply give a portfolio....for people to follow....if he wants he can charge money.

he can give daily sell and buy calls. at a particular price tag.

but i am sure he does not do such a thing....to easy to prove he is as worthless as any fund manager....

hard to make money in a bear market......and even a chimp can pick stocks in a bull market.

if cramer already has a set portfolio....can some one give me a link...google search is not returning anything specific.

i know that cramer owns EMC for his trust.....its only down 50% YTD.

i also know he recommended RIMM at 119, its only down 15%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96376-apple-credit-spreads-targeting-500-return?source=feed#comment-260237 260237
in this bear market...expecting on a big upside is not as fruitful as betting that this quality stock will not go another 40% down. and since i am selling premium, i earn money with each passing day.

but with government hands on intervention, my gut tells me that maybe we will start recovery in credit market....leading to recovery in mortgage/housing....le... to stock market rally.....and business expansion.

we will know for sure next week.]]> Sat, 20 Sep 2008 17:31:14 -0400
in this bear market...expecting on a big upside is not as fruitful as betting that this quality stock will not go another 40% down. and since i am selling premium, i earn money with each passing day.

but with government hands on intervention, my gut tells me that maybe we will start recovery in credit market....leading to recovery in mortgage/housing....le... to stock market rally.....and business expansion.

we will know for sure next week.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96376-apple-credit-spreads-targeting-500-return?source=feed#comment-260232 260232
which means i am protected from loss all the way till apple drops to 78, at which point i can choose to go long apple.

i hedged that position by buying one strike 80, Jan 2009 puts, for around $100 (yes its expensive, but if apple tanks below $90 due to high volatility, i can sell this put and wait for recovery).

my margin requirement for above position is only $2000.

and i dont have pray for apple to go up a lot...]]> Sat, 20 Sep 2008 17:26:46 -0400
which means i am protected from loss all the way till apple drops to 78, at which point i can choose to go long apple.

i hedged that position by buying one strike 80, Jan 2009 puts, for around $100 (yes its expensive, but if apple tanks below $90 due to high volatility, i can sell this put and wait for recovery).

my margin requirement for above position is only $2000.

and i dont have pray for apple to go up a lot...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93909-could-dell-and-salesforce-com-merge-someday?source=feed#comment-247528 247528 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 12:36:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94114-the-64-trillion-question-what-s-the-dollar-really-worth?source=feed#comment-246399 246399
but USA is established and respected military and economic power, which already has strong base in middle east, and has allies all over the world.]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:30:03 -0400
but USA is established and respected military and economic power, which already has strong base in middle east, and has allies all over the world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94061-steve-ballmer-time-to-come-back-to-yahoo?source=feed#comment-246377 246377
MSFT has never shown interest for a complete buyout after they walked out, and thats the reason the big institutions voted for yang rather than Icahn.

with Icahn there was no other choice than sell yahoo to msft for whatever price...

but ever since then nobody has come out with a statement/plan to maximise shareholder value..which is why yahoo is melting down.

and maybe MSFT and Icahn want yahoo to go down all the way to $15, so that MSFT's $23-25 offer will look great.]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:04:47 -0400
MSFT has never shown interest for a complete buyout after they walked out, and thats the reason the big institutions voted for yang rather than Icahn.

with Icahn there was no other choice than sell yahoo to msft for whatever price...

but ever since then nobody has come out with a statement/plan to maximise shareholder value..which is why yahoo is melting down.

and maybe MSFT and Icahn want yahoo to go down all the way to $15, so that MSFT's $23-25 offer will look great.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89956-outlook-for-the-indian-economy?source=feed#comment-230644 230644
here are my doubts about india:
1. Politicians as always, and everywhere, dont care about long term benefits to the country or society, hence they are not solving infrastructure problems which is becoming a bottleneck for growth.
2. private investment in infrastructure is very risky (bangalore-mysore freeway is mired in red-tape since 7-8 years) hence i dont see infrastructure improving much.
3. in china thats is never a issue, its get done by the party, and it does appear that the party is interested in promoting china as a super power, its not the case in india (they are busy looting for themselves till they are in power).

i am not an economist hence i am clueless about the problems infrastructure presents to economic growth, please shed some light?

India has gone through a real estate boom, which maybe going bust right now. most of it was done with atleast 10-20% down payment, but if there is any pressure on jobs, we can see defaults go through the sky since most people spend almost 50% of income to service the mortgage.
]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:31:55 -0400
here are my doubts about india:
1. Politicians as always, and everywhere, dont care about long term benefits to the country or society, hence they are not solving infrastructure problems which is becoming a bottleneck for growth.
2. private investment in infrastructure is very risky (bangalore-mysore freeway is mired in red-tape since 7-8 years) hence i dont see infrastructure improving much.
3. in china thats is never a issue, its get done by the party, and it does appear that the party is interested in promoting china as a super power, its not the case in india (they are busy looting for themselves till they are in power).

i am not an economist hence i am clueless about the problems infrastructure presents to economic growth, please shed some light?

India has gone through a real estate boom, which maybe going bust right now. most of it was done with atleast 10-20% down payment, but if there is any pressure on jobs, we can see defaults go through the sky since most people spend almost 50% of income to service the mortgage.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90737-six-reasons-to-buy-china-soon?source=feed#comment-229876 229876
i hope he is not including the price of a house...which has gone up 1000% in some locations in the past 4-5 years.

according to me the biggest cost of of living in india is commodities and energy.

and if i am not wrong, the cost of commodity and energy is almost same all over the world (+-5%), so if inflation in india is 25%, then it has to be atleast 15% all over the world.

i am not in india but i have family and friends and if we exclude the housing thing, inflation is definitely not 25%, yes it is more than 7-8%, but that is mostly due to commodities and energy skyrocketing all over the world.

by the same measure real inflation must more than 6-7% even in usa. (cost of gas itself is more than 30% YoY)

another thing, if the currency of india is not depreciating against USD, then it does not matter if inflation is 20% or 40%, for a non-indian investor.

and in the past 2-3 years, indian currency has appreciated against the dollar.

From India: you sound like an elitist.....when you say wages are rising....what do you expect, inflation is high but wages to stay stagnant?? ]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 23:32:41 -0400
i hope he is not including the price of a house...which has gone up 1000% in some locations in the past 4-5 years.

according to me the biggest cost of of living in india is commodities and energy.

and if i am not wrong, the cost of commodity and energy is almost same all over the world (+-5%), so if inflation in india is 25%, then it has to be atleast 15% all over the world.

i am not in india but i have family and friends and if we exclude the housing thing, inflation is definitely not 25%, yes it is more than 7-8%, but that is mostly due to commodities and energy skyrocketing all over the world.

by the same measure real inflation must more than 6-7% even in usa. (cost of gas itself is more than 30% YoY)

another thing, if the currency of india is not depreciating against USD, then it does not matter if inflation is 20% or 40%, for a non-indian investor.

and in the past 2-3 years, indian currency has appreciated against the dollar.

From India: you sound like an elitist.....when you say wages are rising....what do you expect, inflation is high but wages to stay stagnant?? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90202-appetite-for-risk-buy-some-rimm?source=feed#comment-227262 227262
i think you need to check your numbers..

BB dont cost that much per user....recently we switched from BB to a motorla Q something using activeSync....and the reason was not cost, but better sync without having to hookup to laptop.

plus IT can manage the service on their own, no need to deal with Blackberry support.


so the author thinks that people will buy new bold....just because it came out, i am not sure its that simple....businesses dont spend on new handset unless its past the 2 year period and they are entitled for some discount.

plus there are hundreds of competition to BB these days using ActiveSync....

i think RIMM is going to do ok for another 2 quarters and after that all bets are off ( i will start a small short position if it crossed 145, and will keep adding as it goes up, the momentum may carry it all the way to 160 or higher....but that will be heaven for top sellers)]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:51:18 -0400
i think you need to check your numbers..

BB dont cost that much per user....recently we switched from BB to a motorla Q something using activeSync....and the reason was not cost, but better sync without having to hookup to laptop.

plus IT can manage the service on their own, no need to deal with Blackberry support.


so the author thinks that people will buy new bold....just because it came out, i am not sure its that simple....businesses dont spend on new handset unless its past the 2 year period and they are entitled for some discount.

plus there are hundreds of competition to BB these days using ActiveSync....

i think RIMM is going to do ok for another 2 quarters and after that all bets are off ( i will start a small short position if it crossed 145, and will keep adding as it goes up, the momentum may carry it all the way to 160 or higher....but that will be heaven for top sellers)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90186-economic-report-summary-housing-market-getting-worse-not-better?source=feed#comment-227257 227257 ]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:35:28 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90186-economic-report-summary-housing-market-getting-worse-not-better?source=feed#comment-227256 227256
so you are saying we are out of woods......not so fast...

housing is still not affordable in most places, mortgage rates have gone up, and maybe we will need 20% downpayment to get a mortgage.

the market rally was due to oil/commodity going down and dollar flowing in to usa from abroad.....its just a reversal of short dollar trade.

it may last for a while...maybe 5-10% in broad market, but we are still not done with problems in the financials/credit markets.

but inflation going down is definitely a positive sign for the economy.
]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:33:25 -0400
so you are saying we are out of woods......not so fast...

housing is still not affordable in most places, mortgage rates have gone up, and maybe we will need 20% downpayment to get a mortgage.

the market rally was due to oil/commodity going down and dollar flowing in to usa from abroad.....its just a reversal of short dollar trade.

it may last for a while...maybe 5-10% in broad market, but we are still not done with problems in the financials/credit markets.

but inflation going down is definitely a positive sign for the economy.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90107-a-closer-look-at-the-dollar-rally?source=feed#comment-226947 226947
its the weak economy with slow growth and falling asset values led to flee of dollar investment to other currencies.....you can add solid emerging economies and their stock markets.

and then people piled on to that with dollar short trades adding more to the downside of dollar.

usa stock market wan not making money so people piled on to energy and commodities.

but now emerging economies stock market is no more attractive...in fact its risky so money is coming back into usa....

energy and commodities bubble is deflating because global economy has started cooling down due to usa cooling down....

and then we have reached the point where FED has signalled that its done with rate cut and it may increase rate(they wont do it, no need to do it now) which means its almost the dollar bottom.

yes usa financial sector is still not done writing down....housing may not recover till early 2010...job market has just begun showing signs of weakening...all in all its definitely not a show of strength.

but one does not have to be strong....if one is the least weak in the whole group...then it becomes the leader.

so its a sign of the fact the usa is still the leading economy of the world....the most reliable for investment....hence people will still buy usa treasury even though its yield is negative if inflation is taken into account.

for a long term policies/conditions were USD un-friendly....but now they are neutral, and this may be that bounce.

its also possible that Europe, china, india etc do not want dollar to go down since its hurting their exports and hence they may have helped this rally.

but right now USA is not the favorite investment destination due to all the maladies, hence i dont think this rally of USD will last more than another 7-10%, its mostly a trading rally right now....with people reversing their bearish USD positions.

if USA economy recovers...we wont be talking about 1.6USD=1EURO, it will become the other way around.

the weakest link in the whole scheme of things....housing. and there is no short term solution to that since housing is still expensive compared to income.

and to add more fuel to the housing problem we have credit market problems....making it difficult to get mortgages without substantial down payment...

the above two have added enough negativity to the macro-economy that we may also end up going into a long recession if right now companies start cutting corners in anticipation of slow economy.....leading to lay offs....more foreclosures....more credit market turmoils....its like a vicious cycle.

but i am not giving up yet....the job market has held up so far......and the FED has so far supported the financial market.....only if they can make the 30 year mortgage rates go down to 5%.....start giving loan with only 5% down payment, we may start digging ourself out of this hole.

but its near impossible to make mortgage rates go down and issue loan with less down payment because of the inherent risk in this melting housing market......i guess we need some kind of federal housing assitance as a back stop so that we can stop sliding backwards...

i am sure house prices will fall enough in 8-14 months that they will become affordable....but we need the mortgage market to offer better deal to get it moving....ton of people like me waiting on the sideline to buy a house.]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 23:03:53 -0400
its the weak economy with slow growth and falling asset values led to flee of dollar investment to other currencies.....you can add solid emerging economies and their stock markets.

and then people piled on to that with dollar short trades adding more to the downside of dollar.

usa stock market wan not making money so people piled on to energy and commodities.

but now emerging economies stock market is no more attractive...in fact its risky so money is coming back into usa....

energy and commodities bubble is deflating because global economy has started cooling down due to usa cooling down....

and then we have reached the point where FED has signalled that its done with rate cut and it may increase rate(they wont do it, no need to do it now) which means its almost the dollar bottom.

yes usa financial sector is still not done writing down....housing may not recover till early 2010...job market has just begun showing signs of weakening...all in all its definitely not a show of strength.

but one does not have to be strong....if one is the least weak in the whole group...then it becomes the leader.

so its a sign of the fact the usa is still the leading economy of the world....the most reliable for investment....hence people will still buy usa treasury even though its yield is negative if inflation is taken into account.

for a long term policies/conditions were USD un-friendly....but now they are neutral, and this may be that bounce.

its also possible that Europe, china, india etc do not want dollar to go down since its hurting their exports and hence they may have helped this rally.

but right now USA is not the favorite investment destination due to all the maladies, hence i dont think this rally of USD will last more than another 7-10%, its mostly a trading rally right now....with people reversing their bearish USD positions.

if USA economy recovers...we wont be talking about 1.6USD=1EURO, it will become the other way around.

the weakest link in the whole scheme of things....housing. and there is no short term solution to that since housing is still expensive compared to income.

and to add more fuel to the housing problem we have credit market problems....making it difficult to get mortgages without substantial down payment...

the above two have added enough negativity to the macro-economy that we may also end up going into a long recession if right now companies start cutting corners in anticipation of slow economy.....leading to lay offs....more foreclosures....more credit market turmoils....its like a vicious cycle.

but i am not giving up yet....the job market has held up so far......and the FED has so far supported the financial market.....only if they can make the 30 year mortgage rates go down to 5%.....start giving loan with only 5% down payment, we may start digging ourself out of this hole.

but its near impossible to make mortgage rates go down and issue loan with less down payment because of the inherent risk in this melting housing market......i guess we need some kind of federal housing assitance as a back stop so that we can stop sliding backwards...

i am sure house prices will fall enough in 8-14 months that they will become affordable....but we need the mortgage market to offer better deal to get it moving....ton of people like me waiting on the sideline to buy a house.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90020-is-microsoft-out-of-ideas?source=feed#comment-226068 226068 Fri, 08 Aug 2008 11:30:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90020-is-microsoft-out-of-ideas?source=feed#comment-226061 226061
in other words, if you dont have a good use for all that cash, why not return some to the shareholders.

yes they dont have any idea to grow....they have tried but failed, why dont you pitch in if you think it is easy to grow a company of msft size??

but frankly i am not convinced that msft management has decided to reward shareholders.....i still think they are going to buy yahoo in some kind of deal.

if yahoo management with less than 5% stake in the company could not be forced by shareholders to add some value, how can anyone force msft managment with a huge stake to do so.]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 11:27:56 -0400
in other words, if you dont have a good use for all that cash, why not return some to the shareholders.

yes they dont have any idea to grow....they have tried but failed, why dont you pitch in if you think it is easy to grow a company of msft size??

but frankly i am not convinced that msft management has decided to reward shareholders.....i still think they are going to buy yahoo in some kind of deal.

if yahoo management with less than 5% stake in the company could not be forced by shareholders to add some value, how can anyone force msft managment with a huge stake to do so.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88773-cable-has-the-edge-over-telcos-barron-s?source=feed#comment-221835 221835
isnt it because cable companies have monopoly in their area....except for dish network.]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 20:29:51 -0400
isnt it because cable companies have monopoly in their area....except for dish network.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88724-it-s-official-jerry-yang-has-won?source=feed#comment-221555 221555
did he really win?? i think everybody lost...except maybe MSFT cash pile, since it did not get wasted on yahoo.

Icahn and other shareholders have no choice since msft is not interested....so they are letting yang run the shop for a while.

but the ball is in their court...will they increase the value of shareholders or they will let yahoo share price slowly melt....so that MSFT comes back with $25/share offer next years??]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 12:23:40 -0400
did he really win?? i think everybody lost...except maybe MSFT cash pile, since it did not get wasted on yahoo.

Icahn and other shareholders have no choice since msft is not interested....so they are letting yang run the shop for a while.

but the ball is in their court...will they increase the value of shareholders or they will let yahoo share price slowly melt....so that MSFT comes back with $25/share offer next years??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88230-replacing-p-e-in-valuing-apple-stock?source=feed#comment-221537 221537
its a bear market p/es are contracting. and apple momentum will start to fade in 2009, and they may not have the same explosive growth they had in the last 2-3 years.

when a company does not grow very fast....it gets value priced.

i think msft and intc may be some examples....their earnings have grown but their share price has shrunk.]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 12:03:07 -0400
its a bear market p/es are contracting. and apple momentum will start to fade in 2009, and they may not have the same explosive growth they had in the last 2-3 years.

when a company does not grow very fast....it gets value priced.

i think msft and intc may be some examples....their earnings have grown but their share price has shrunk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88708-how-gm-plans-to-muddle-through?source=feed#comment-221527 221527
the best i like is the difference between v8 silverado and V4 camry...is only $17/week.

15.6 mpg in city/highway -- silverado.--$53.84
27.62 mpg in city/highway -- Camry---$30.43

avg driving 30 miles/day, 210 miles/week. gas/gallon=$4

well not bad he is off only by $6 or 30%.

its $23/week. if we drive 30 miles/week. most americans drive 12k miles/year........the difference becomes $1337/year.

and what if gas goes to $5??

]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 11:48:41 -0400
the best i like is the difference between v8 silverado and V4 camry...is only $17/week.

15.6 mpg in city/highway -- silverado.--$53.84
27.62 mpg in city/highway -- Camry---$30.43

avg driving 30 miles/day, 210 miles/week. gas/gallon=$4

well not bad he is off only by $6 or 30%.

its $23/week. if we drive 30 miles/week. most americans drive 12k miles/year........the difference becomes $1337/year.

and what if gas goes to $5??

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87382-five-great-quality-companies-are-they-too-expensive?source=feed#comment-221228 221228
i remember seeing $150 price targets for VMware.....i hope they revised it down to $75.

and i am sure there were such expectations even from Sbux and Crox.

i think most anal-ist are only in the game to pump or dump....they want to make money for their employer..]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 18:49:43 -0400
i remember seeing $150 price targets for VMware.....i hope they revised it down to $75.

and i am sure there were such expectations even from Sbux and Crox.

i think most anal-ist are only in the game to pump or dump....they want to make money for their employer..]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87619-despite-drop-rimm-s-valuation-still-too-high?source=feed#comment-221207 221207
------------

yup, sure.. why not?? Blackberry is still the only smart phone in town...as it was the last two years.

hey how about earnings growth slows.....or maybe how about earnings stagnate after 2009??

oops...that will mean stock price goes to $50]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 18:16:34 -0400
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yup, sure.. why not?? Blackberry is still the only smart phone in town...as it was the last two years.

hey how about earnings growth slows.....or maybe how about earnings stagnate after 2009??

oops...that will mean stock price goes to $50]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87282-8-dow-stocks-likely-to-outperform?source=feed#comment-216049 216049
how can you recommend financials when their books are completely opaque??

beware of GE also...its almost like 50% financial.

PFE may have no drug in pipeline...but the stock is priced very low.....start building position now...i think the bottom will not be below 16, and one good catalyst will send this stock to 20]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 20:18:41 -0400
how can you recommend financials when their books are completely opaque??

beware of GE also...its almost like 50% financial.

PFE may have no drug in pipeline...but the stock is priced very low.....start building position now...i think the bottom will not be below 16, and one good catalyst will send this stock to 20]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87227-the-top-5-looming-financial-issues?source=feed#comment-215743 215743
but i have been reading lately...and i think some of the thinking about social security, national debt, energy payment flowing out of usa, medicare liability etc are flawed..

1. medicare and SS are not liability written in stone or paper......they will be reduced drastically if they cannot be financed, which means US govt ability to fund them is least of my worries, i am more worried about the ensuing socialism that will overpower america.

2. national debt....its not a debt if nobody forces you to pay it, china/japan/middle east are the financers of our debt....and what do they get in return? more fiat currency.....so we are not giving them of any value.....but my only worry will be if china/japan/middle east will stop supplying goods for the fiat currency/USD that we offer to them in future....i dont see it happening.

of course they can come to usa and try to buy real assets in form of companies/properties..... BUD)...so whats the big deal if ownership changes....as long as they play by our rules.

4. same thing applies to cost of oil, we are paying paper money in return for real energy/OIL.....and i wont worry about the fact that we are transferring wealth.

but i will be more worries about the fact the big oil companies and vested interests have taken over the USA congress/politics....a... they make sure we keep a huge military to protect their business in OIL. but this is to do more with stupid people electing corrupt politicians due to some misguided issues (religion/environmenta... etc..)]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 13:27:10 -0400
but i have been reading lately...and i think some of the thinking about social security, national debt, energy payment flowing out of usa, medicare liability etc are flawed..

1. medicare and SS are not liability written in stone or paper......they will be reduced drastically if they cannot be financed, which means US govt ability to fund them is least of my worries, i am more worried about the ensuing socialism that will overpower america.

2. national debt....its not a debt if nobody forces you to pay it, china/japan/middle east are the financers of our debt....and what do they get in return? more fiat currency.....so we are not giving them of any value.....but my only worry will be if china/japan/middle east will stop supplying goods for the fiat currency/USD that we offer to them in future....i dont see it happening.

of course they can come to usa and try to buy real assets in form of companies/properties..... BUD)...so whats the big deal if ownership changes....as long as they play by our rules.

4. same thing applies to cost of oil, we are paying paper money in return for real energy/OIL.....and i wont worry about the fact that we are transferring wealth.

but i will be more worries about the fact the big oil companies and vested interests have taken over the USA congress/politics....a... they make sure we keep a huge military to protect their business in OIL. but this is to do more with stupid people electing corrupt politicians due to some misguided issues (religion/environmenta... etc..)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87196-yahoo-microsoft-the-bigger-they-are-the-harder-they-fall?source=feed#comment-215668 215668
can that happen by 2010?? are people really switching to Macs pc en-masse(personal computers can be replaced upto 50% if mac became cheap but business computers cannot be replaced for a long time, too hard to develop software for them, except for browser enabled ones)

i am not sure i know where companies are switching to online apps offered by google??

from what i know, MSFT has failed to create anything outside their windows dominance......and thats it. but the author is implying that they are like a dying business....

when it comes to yahoo its true that their core business of online is being taken over by google and others.....and they are on the verge of shrinking......(earnin... are already falling since many quarters).

its a false premise to compare yahoo and msft as same when it comes to business.

msft is struggling to grow in other areas......but yahoo is losing its bread and butter.

BTW it appears MSFT has decided not to pay $33/share for yahoo because of its shareholders protest.....who think yahoo is not worth more than $25/shares. market thinks its worth only $21.

yes MSFT has no idea how to grow anywhere else.........so what, what about google....apart from their search business have the done anything to make money??

its easy to critic....why not throw some idea if anyone has one.....MSFT is willing to spend 10 billion if anyone has an idea to compete with google's to attract their addicted users.]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:59:47 -0400
can that happen by 2010?? are people really switching to Macs pc en-masse(personal computers can be replaced upto 50% if mac became cheap but business computers cannot be replaced for a long time, too hard to develop software for them, except for browser enabled ones)

i am not sure i know where companies are switching to online apps offered by google??

from what i know, MSFT has failed to create anything outside their windows dominance......and thats it. but the author is implying that they are like a dying business....

when it comes to yahoo its true that their core business of online is being taken over by google and others.....and they are on the verge of shrinking......(earnin... are already falling since many quarters).

its a false premise to compare yahoo and msft as same when it comes to business.

msft is struggling to grow in other areas......but yahoo is losing its bread and butter.

BTW it appears MSFT has decided not to pay $33/share for yahoo because of its shareholders protest.....who think yahoo is not worth more than $25/shares. market thinks its worth only $21.

yes MSFT has no idea how to grow anywhere else.........so what, what about google....apart from their search business have the done anything to make money??

its easy to critic....why not throw some idea if anyone has one.....MSFT is willing to spend 10 billion if anyone has an idea to compete with google's to attract their addicted users.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87005-what-s-behind-the-slide-in-oil-and-commodities?source=feed#comment-215357 215357
so can we conclude from above article that, oil and commodity got hit because:

1. ECB's and brazil hawking approach lends credibility to currency rather than commodity and gold?
2. Bill by lawmakers to limit speculation?
3. ease of tension between Iran and US/Israel

wait a second did i miss the fact that maybe demand is falling of faster than expected?]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 00:12:48 -0400
so can we conclude from above article that, oil and commodity got hit because:

1. ECB's and brazil hawking approach lends credibility to currency rather than commodity and gold?
2. Bill by lawmakers to limit speculation?
3. ease of tension between Iran and US/Israel

wait a second did i miss the fact that maybe demand is falling of faster than expected?]]>