techy

Recessions and Investor Behavior

i am sorry to say that i did not learn anything that we already did not know.

i have heard the buffett quote about 100 times, even in first week of November 2007.

to be fearful when others are greedy, oh yeah...only if that was so simple...only if we knew that when DOW hit 14000 its because people are being greedy.

my take: stock market has been reduced to a place of speculation........if you buy and hold, you will lose if the market is on long term downtrend. and if you trade then also you may lose.

ask anyone who has bought and hold amazon, priceline, yahoo in 1998 or 1999.

and what about the japanese stock market, the buy and hold must be doing great since the last 10-15 years??

why not accept the fact that we are all clueless....and we are guessing our way around.

EMC Corporation: A Bellwether Bargain

it was a good read.

except revise it by putting VMW=$40. which is its fair price, come July 2008.

8 Predictions for 2008

a bull doing bull shit of prediction..

unless some how magically all the subprime crap is melted into gold.....how are the banks/financials going to do better??

if i am not wrong, all the financials/banks have lost more than 2-5 years of earnings, if that is the case, should their price not go back to 2002 levels??

Why Wouldn't The Economy Go Into Recession?

wait a second...i thought this article was going to answer the question, not end with a question.

The Impact of High-Priced Oil on Solar Manufacturers

It will take 4-5 year for peak oil effect to show up in the cost of energy.

before that there will be a global economy slowdown, which means reduction in oil consumption which means oil price will go down.

and you can add to that fact that most solar stocks are very expensive and they use material which is not abundant at current costs.

i see the probability of them going down 50% by end of next year. rather than they going more up.

Cadmium Telluride Casts Shadow on First Solar

shaun:

so you are saying that we should not care for mark's analysis/research and should continue holding shares of FSLR, even though there is a risk that it may go to zero??

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

Mark:

can you please let us know a rough timeline based on your knowledge about First solars projects, current rate of usage of Te etc.. how long it will take before we will see Te prices shoot through the roof ($1000 a pound or so)

and when can we see First solar getting financially affected by the price rise of Te??

sorry i am a bit lazy, and was hoping you have it on top of your head.

thanks...

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

my conclusion after reading all the comments:

i am somewhat convinced by mark's arguments about Te's importance to FSLR, and nobody has made a argument which negates his position.

but i am not convinced that the scientific community cannot be wrong about rarity of Te ( i think its possible that they may be wrong, and if we look hard enough we can find Te in abundance for the right cost)

so if mark is right, First solar is going to have cost overruns pretty soon, and i think that may be a time to establish short position, since its quite possible that they will continue running higher making my job easy.

the worst thing maybe mark is right, whole world comes to know about Te and FSLR nexus and Te price goes to moon, everyone sells FSLR and i miss the opportunity.

i hope i can take some time out to do some research (since i dont want to miss the opportunity)

Why Shorting VMware is a Mistake

here is my overly optimistic estimate (i am an IT guy, an early adapter of VMware, i know how much we spend on Microsoft and how much we will spend on VMware, extrapolate data from both, which will give a upper limit to vmware)
revenue income
Q1-2007 258.69 41.00
Q2-2007 296.82 34.22
Q3-2007 350.00 59.50
Q4-2007 400.00 72.00
206.72--2007 income
Q1-2008 500.00 100.00
Q2-2008 650.00 130.00
Q3-2008 800.00 160.00
Q4-2008 950.00 190.00
580.00-- 2008 income
Q1-2009 1,100.00 220.00
Q2-2009 1,200.00 240.00
Q3-2009 1,250.00 250.00
Q4-2009 1,300.00 260.00
970.00 -- 2009 income
Q1-2010 1,350.00 270.00
Q2-2010 1,400.00 280.00
Q3-2010 1,450.00 290.00
Q4-2010 1,500.00 300.00
1,140.00---2010 income
Q1-2011 1,550.00 310.00
Q2-2011 1,600.00 320.00
Q3-2011 1,650.00 330.00
Q4-2011 1,700.00 340.00
1,300 --- 2011 income