techy

The Top 5 Looming Financial Issues

i am not an economics major neither it is my day job.

but i have been reading lately...and i think some of the thinking about social security, national debt, energy payment flowing out of usa, medicare liability etc are flawed..

1. medicare and SS are not liability written in stone or paper......they will be reduced drastically if they cannot be financed, which means US govt ability to fund them is least of my worries, i am more worried about the ensuing socialism that will overpower america.

2. national debt....its not a debt if nobody forces you to pay it, china/japan/middle east are the financers of our debt....and what do they get in return? more fiat currency.....so we are not giving them of any value.....but my only worry will be if china/japan/middle east will stop supplying goods for the fiat currency/USD that we offer to them in future....i dont see it happening.

of course they can come to usa and try to buy real assets in form of companies/properties..... BUD)...so whats the big deal if ownership changes....as long as they play by our rules.

4. same thing applies to cost of oil, we are paying paper money in return for real energy/OIL.....and i wont worry about the fact that we are transferring wealth.

but i will be more worries about the fact the big oil companies and vested interests have taken over the USA congress/politics....a... they make sure we keep a huge military to protect their business in OIL. but this is to do more with stupid people electing corrupt politicians due to some misguided issues (religion/environmenta... etc..)

Recessions and Investor Behavior

brad..

hindsight you are right...

except if you look at Nikkei...it does appear that stock market may also go into a long term downtrend.

and who knows where USA stock markets are headed, is it possible that they will reflect Nikkei with year 2000 being the top??

Recessions and Investor Behavior

i am sorry to say that i did not learn anything that we already did not know.

i have heard the buffett quote about 100 times, even in first week of November 2007.

to be fearful when others are greedy, oh yeah...only if that was so simple...only if we knew that when DOW hit 14000 its because people are being greedy.

my take: stock market has been reduced to a place of speculation........if you buy and hold, you will lose if the market is on long term downtrend. and if you trade then also you may lose.

ask anyone who has bought and hold amazon, priceline, yahoo in 1998 or 1999.

and what about the japanese stock market, the buy and hold must be doing great since the last 10-15 years??

why not accept the fact that we are all clueless....and we are guessing our way around.