techy

The Impact of High-Priced Oil on Solar Manufacturers

It will take 4-5 year for peak oil effect to show up in the cost of energy.

before that there will be a global economy slowdown, which means reduction in oil consumption which means oil price will go down.

and you can add to that fact that most solar stocks are very expensive and they use material which is not abundant at current costs.

i see the probability of them going down 50% by end of next year. rather than they going more up.

Cadmium Telluride Casts Shadow on First Solar

shaun:

so you are saying that we should not care for mark's analysis/research and should continue holding shares of FSLR, even though there is a risk that it may go to zero??

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

Mark:

can you please let us know a rough timeline based on your knowledge about First solars projects, current rate of usage of Te etc.. how long it will take before we will see Te prices shoot through the roof ($1000 a pound or so)

and when can we see First solar getting financially affected by the price rise of Te??

sorry i am a bit lazy, and was hoping you have it on top of your head.

thanks...

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

my conclusion after reading all the comments:

i am somewhat convinced by mark's arguments about Te's importance to FSLR, and nobody has made a argument which negates his position.

but i am not convinced that the scientific community cannot be wrong about rarity of Te ( i think its possible that they may be wrong, and if we look hard enough we can find Te in abundance for the right cost)

so if mark is right, First solar is going to have cost overruns pretty soon, and i think that may be a time to establish short position, since its quite possible that they will continue running higher making my job easy.

the worst thing maybe mark is right, whole world comes to know about Te and FSLR nexus and Te price goes to moon, everyone sells FSLR and i miss the opportunity.

i hope i can take some time out to do some research (since i dont want to miss the opportunity)