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  • 3D Systems: Analyzing The Bear Thesis  [View article]
    Arcam does NOT use laser sintering; it uses its own proprietary technology called Electron Beam Melting...
    Feb 8, 2014. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Downgraded: Corrective Actions Proved Insufficient  [View article]
    ...are you certain you didn't omit the letters "in" from your handle? :-)
    I wish you good luck - and I hope you never have to redeem your shares - as I see nothing but price erosion/stagnation for the foreseeable future...
    Jun 21, 2013. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2013 Dividend Compared To Its Peers  [View article]
    I see that most truly analytical prognosticators on AGNC are in agreement on:

    1) A dividend cut this quarter - ranging down to $.85 to $1.10

    2) A decline in book value this quarter to the mid or slightly better 20's.

    3) An improving earnings picture beginning anywhere from 1-2 quarters from now - to 2-3 years from now.

    I, too, think things will get better - but - I believe overall investor sentiment on the sector has so soured that it will trump all - and will result in depressed prices for at least 2-3 more quarters. Till then, I see volatility - driven upwards by those who correctly perceive an improving picture - and driven downward by current holders just waiting for an opportunity to exit with a little less loss than their current paper losses. JMO - no analysis - but a LOT of experience with investing.
    Jun 17, 2013. 10:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet: An 8% Yielder To Hold "Forever"  [View article]
    ...just hope they're not holding this meeting to encourage some investment companies to handle a float of additional shares to raise more capital for expansion....or - maybe I SHOULD hope for that and when/if they do, take advantage of a selloff over-reaction....
    Jun 9, 2013. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growing thoughts of a tapering and then ending of QE∞ triggers panicky selling in the mREIT sector (MORT -2.3%) as Treasury yields hit their highest level in more than a year (the 10-year at 2.12%), and mortgage prices slide as well (MBB -0.4%). Leading the way is a 5.3% decline in American Capital Agency. Annaly (NLY -2.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -3%), Anworth (ANH -2.2%), Western Asset (WMC -4.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.7%), Javelin (JMI -4.3%), Invesco (IVR -1.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1.5%).  [View news story]
    ....problem is FUD - especially looking out a year or so and seeing nothing much positive and lots of reasons to be negative - further weakened by strong market in other investments...
    May 29, 2013. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Time To Abandon Ship?  [View article]
    I just think the FUD factor will continue to play a major role here. We all know the market hates uncertainty and generally rewards it with bailing. With any continuation of loose-lipped comments by fed governors, or evidence of continued rise in long term interest rates that erode book value, or QE easing, or the perception that overall stock market health and future market prospects look to be sufficiently ripe for capital gains to justify rotation into, I think MREIT stock prices will be volatile at best and remain depressed on average.

    If one is in a position of never having to reclaim MREIT capital investment to manage some unexpected circumstance, I suppose the case can be made for hanging tough and continuing to collect decent divvies....
    May 27, 2013. 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Time To Abandon Ship?  [View article]
    "By doing that correctly you always get just about the current yield whatever that might be or become with little capital risk."

    I suppose "correctly" is the key word here. How do you continue to reap near current yield while spending on long puts?
    May 27, 2013. 11:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Overreaction To Fedspeak Could Be A Buying Opportunity  [View article]
    "...But what appears as analysis is not always logical."
    So true. Should have just left out that adjective.
    May 21, 2013. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: Overreaction To Fedspeak Could Be A Buying Opportunity  [View article]
    Investor sentiment based on perception rather than logical analysis will likely keep MREIT share prices under a lot of pressure.
    May 21, 2013. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital (NLY) CEO Wellington Denahan exercised on May 9 options to purchase 100K shares of company stock at $13.25 each (today's close $14.73), upping her stake in the company 11% to more than 1M shares.  [View news story]
    ...purchase sounds like damage control to me...
    May 14, 2013. 01:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT): Q1 EPS of $0.66. Revenue of $1.32B beats by $0.04B. (PR[View news story]
    ??? Today's news headline says "Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. Reports Q1 EPS of $0.66 Which May Not Compare $1.04 Est; Revenue of $1.32B Which May Not Compare $1.28B Est". What's going on?
    May 8, 2013. 12:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency (AGNC -7%) is not far off session lows as the earnings call is set to get underway momentarily (webcast) (slides). Anybody selling or short may want to prepare themselves for CIO Gary Kain laying out very clearly how the rise in rates and the large secondary hurt Q1, but that book value has already strongly rebounded in Q2.  [View news story]
    "that book value has already strongly rebounded in Q2. "

    He did NOTsay that - and refused to give any quantitative answer to questions aimed at extracting that info. He DID say there had been some improvement - but general context was mild....and included comment it was too early in q2 to predict ...
    May 3, 2013. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Armour And Long American Capital: mREIT Pair Trade  [View article]
    Doc - How did you handle the Oct - Dec timeframe for ARR?
    Apr 15, 2013. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Armour And Long American Capital: mREIT Pair Trade  [View article]
    Todd - I agree with kidshelleen - you're probably the best SA analyst around here....always concise and complete.

    I'm trying to understand why you're characterizing your recommendation as a "pair trade" - as opposed to independent recs on the two stocks. The only thing I can come up with is that your intent is to use MTGE dividends to pay for the ARR divvy obligation on the short. Is that your reasoning?
    Apr 8, 2013. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital (NLY) is asking shareholders to allow management to form a new company with which to run the firm from. Similar to arrangements at competitors like American Capital and Invesco, the move means pay of individual executives would no longer be disclosed. Annaly's CEO made $35M in 2011, chump-change for hedge funds, but raising eyebrows for a financial firm post-crisis.  [View news story]
    Sounds more like REITs are no more exempt from corruption than any other recognized corp. criminal thieves....
    Mar 27, 2013. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment